PRNW Forecst of 12/31/2010

Model Cycle: 2010 DEC 31 12Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 5 hours              
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
12/31  7am   6 - 13    N 357    9.0    12.1   18 - 24   NE  46
12/31  1pm   5 - 11    N 358    8.4    11.6   17 - 23   NE  43
12/31  7pm   5 - 10    N 358    8.0    11.2   16 - 22  ENE  57
 
1/1    7am   4 -  8    N   0    7.2    10.3   15 - 21  ENE  59
1/1    1pm   2 -  5  NNE  29    6.7     6.3   16 - 21  ENE  54
1/1    7pm   2 -  5   NE  39    7.2     6.5   17 - 23  ENE  62
 
1/2    7am   3 -  6   NE  34    7.1     7.1   17 - 23  ENE  60
1/2    1pm   3 -  6  NNE  28    6.8     7.5   14 - 19  ENE  58
1/2    7pm   3 -  6  NNE  29    6.7     7.6   16 - 21  ENE  58
 
1/3    7am   3 -  6   NE  37    7.0     7.6   14 - 19  ENE  68
1/3    1pm   3 -  6   NE  38    6.9     7.6   16 - 22  ENE  54
1/3    7pm   2 -  5   NE  38    6.6     7.4   16 - 21  ENE  58
 
1/4    1am   2 -  5   NE  39    6.0     7.2   16 - 21  ENE  60
1/4    7am   2 -  4   NE  38    5.5     6.8   14 - 19  ENE  64
1/4    1pm   2 -  4   NE  39    5.0     6.7   14 - 19  ENE  52
1/4    7pm   1 -  3   NE  40    5.0     6.3   14 - 19  ENE  67
 
1/5    7am   1 -  3   NE  45    5.0     6.6   12 - 17  ENE  73
1/5    1pm   1 -  3   NE  46    4.6     6.4   10 - 13  ENE  51
1/5    7pm   3 -  7  NNE  24    4.4    13.3   10 - 13  ENE  66
 
1/6    7am   2 -  5  NNE  19    4.0    11.5    8 - 11  ENE  78
1/6    1pm   2 -  5  NNE  15    4.1    10.8    7 -  9  NNE  25
1/6    7pm   2 -  5  NNE  12    4.4    10.3    9 - 13   NE  44
 
1/7    7am   1 -  3    N   6    3.3     9.1    2 -  3    E  85

Igor Forecast to go Cat 3

Igor Cometh!

Igor regained strength and is now a tropical storm and expected to gain hurricane strength by Monday. He will develop rapidly. Long period swell begins arriving to Cape Hatteras during Wednesday night (the 15 - 16 sec variety) with small swells initially - pray for light offshores. Thursday and Friday will be surf days... looks like I will be leaving late Friday. This storm really gets big. Looks like Sun/Mon surf sessions in the DelMarVa upon my return.

You can practically fit Puerto Rico into the eye of the storm.

Thursday morning swell starts out small...

...but is powered by long period 15-16 sec. swell

Wax those boards, boys!!!!

Update for gP3 Week

Had to check this evening... Igor is more favorable in providing swell

for us. Now expect forerunner long period swell (small, 13-16 sec

periods) to start arriving on Wed with increasing swell size on

Thursday. My guess is we will now have swell on Thu & Fri, maybe

something on Wed, and certainly on Sat for those still hanging around.

Later in gP3 Week

We will need to scope out the incoming tide sandbars for 2-3 foot surf

early- and mid-week. Late in the week we might see some nice SE'ly

swells from Igor.

This figure clearly shows the track location of the storm.

This figure shows the intensity of the storm.

This figure shows the groundswell approach on Wednesday (that makes it one day away from Hatteras).

This figure shows Igor (western storm) and Julia (?) to the east.

____________________________________________________
Rod Rodgers _\m/
http://rodndtube.com/
http://mypaipoboards.org/

The One Named Hermine

Well, the one I have been calling Hermine still remains nameless and in
the meantime, Hermine formed in the Western Gulf of Mexico. That would
make "my" Hermine an Igor. Meanwhile, the tropical low pressure system
that once was called Gaston is still given a 70 percent chance to
reform. Another model shows a good-sized storm in the middle of the
Atlantic on Sept 13th with another storm coming off Africa (this one
would be too late for Hatteras Week).

--
____________________________________________________
Rod Rodgers _\m/
http://rodndtube.com/
http://mypaipoboards.org/

All is quiet for now

Storms are still gathering even though it appears quiet. The storm named

Gaston may reform but looks headed through the Caribbean and into the

Gulf of Mexico. Will it eventually curve north from the Gulf and head

north? This has happened before and brought us several days of waves

from the south.

The Invest that I have called the potential Hermine has disappeared from

some models but shows up in others. Another tropical wave is coming off

of Africa and forecast to develop into a TS... in time for gP3?

Swell Info is forecasting waist high surf from Rodanthe to Frisco on

Saturday.

This is today's situation.

This is the forecast for Sept. 12th.

This is the forecast for Sept. 12th.

Gaston has Disappeared, Hermine has Not

What would be named Hermine has strengthened and moved closer to our
Hatteras Week picture... 2nd half of the week.

P3 Wave Makers?

For the two figures below, the estimated arrival time for swell from Gaston (near Puerto Rico) is 2 to 3 days.

--
____________________________________________________
Rod Rodgers _\m/
http://rodndtube.com/
http://mypaipoboards.org/

TS Setup for P3 Week

The current Conga Line of Earl, Fiona and Gaston, the latter of which might provide some swell at the beginning of P3 Week.

Looking out 180 hours you will see Gaston over Puerto Rico and what hopefully would become Hermine off the Cape Verde Islands (she could provide swell later during P3 Week).

This satellite picture shows the Conga Line and what could be Hermine coming off the Africa coast.

NAH Wed Forecast for Hurricane Earl at OBX

Top figure shows Thursday Night and bottom figures shows Friday morning, as of morning of Wed, Sept 1st,.

P3 Storm of Hope: Invest98

This is most likely the "storm of hope" for this year's Hatteras P3.

--
____________________________________________________
Rod Rodgers _\m/
http://rodndtube.com/
http://mypaipoboards.org/

Eye of Earl Near San Juan

On Monday, Earl was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds.

--
____________________________________________________
Rod Rodgers _\m/
http://rodndtube.com/
http://mypaipoboards.org/

Earl to Put a Hurting on OBX

Check this out... Hurricane Earl will be hanging off the NC OBX coast

for about 40 hours, or more. My guess is a Cat 3 or Cat 4 strength storm.

At 138 hours from 8/28/10:

At 180 hours from 8/28/10:

Monday Looking Green

Look out there at Thursday... that is 7.9' @ 18sec. Unheard of on the
East Coast.

Earl Wave/Swell Action Forecast for Sept 3rd 2010

Earl Means Business

A Couple Days Later Conga Line Forecast

Invest97, shown as 97L in this figure, should become Fiona sometime in the next few days.

Cape Verde Conga Line

Danielle, Please Don't Do That!

Tue 8/24/10 Danielle & Earl Updates - Week of Surf

2010-08-24

Swell Info Forecast

Looking good to me :)

2010-0823 Forecast for Mon Aug 30 timeframe

Good news: Invest 96 just joined the conga line. Bad news - long range forecast at this point shows a slightly weaker storm than Danielle that also follows here track into the Mid-Atlantic.

2010-0822 Forecast for Mon Aug 30

Forecast for Sun 2010-0829 as of Sat 8/21/10 Noon