NWPR Forecast of 2019-1231 (Tue)

Swell diminishes over the early New Year before a new swell filling in on 3 Kings Day and into Jan 7th 2020. And it is a NNW! That one will probably be gone before I can hit the water on the 9th but some tinyees may not be too crowded.

Today is showing smallish 3-4 ft.

Model Cycle: 2019 DEC 31 06Z          
Time Zone: GMT - 5 hours              
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
12/31  7am   4 -  8  NNE  23    5.0    14.1    8 - 11  ENE  78
12/31  1pm   3 -  7  NNE  23    4.6    13.9    7 - 10  ENE  64

1/1    7am   3 -  6  NNE  23    4.0    13.2   11 - 15    E  81
1/1    1pm   2 -  5  NNE  23    3.8    12.6   11 - 15   NE  48

1/2    7am   2 -  4  NNE  22    3.4    11.7   12 - 17  ENE  52
1/2    1pm   2 -  4  NNE  22    3.1    11.6    8 - 11   NE  40

1/3    7am   2 -  5  NNE  23    4.0    10.9   14 - 19  ENE  74
1/3    1pm   1 -  3   NE  46    4.3     7.2   16 - 22  ENE  67

1/4    7am   2 -  5  NNE  22    3.4    12.3   11 - 15    E  84
1/4    1pm   2 -  4  NNE  21    3.0    11.7    8 - 11  ENE  54

1/5    7am   1 -  2   NE  35    3.3     6.3    6 -  8  ENE  78
1/5    1pm   1 -  2   NE  34    3.0     6.5    2 -  3  ENE  77

1/6    7am   1 -  2   NE  41    3.0     7.0   10 - 14   NE  36
1/6    1pm   3 -  6  NNW 337    3.7    13.6   10 - 14  ENE  52
1/6    7pm   4 -  8  NNW 336    5.9    12.5   12 - 16  ENE  55
 
1/7    1am   4 -  8  NNW 332    6.1    11.7   10 - 14  ENE  59

NWPR Forecast of 2019-1230

There has been a lot of good swell most of the Fall 2019 and closing out the year. Some very small days leading up to arrival day of Jan 8th (first potential surf day of Jan 9th). Maybe a little slipping in on 1/5/20 that would be good for the left side recovering guy (1-3 ft, 11 sec).

Location : 18.5N  67.5W               
Model Cycle: 2019 DEC 30 06Z          
Time Zone: GMT - 5 hours              
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
12/30  7am   5 - 10  NNE  23    7.2    11.9   14 - 19    E  88
12/30  1pm   5 - 10  NNE  23    7.5    11.3   17 - 23  ENE  58

12/31  7am   4 -  8  NNE  23    5.2    14.1   12 - 16    E  82
12/31  1pm   4 -  8  NNE  23    5.2    13.9   14 - 19  ENE  67

1/1    7am   2 -  5  NNE  23    3.7    13.2    7 - 10  ENE  65
1/1    1pm   2 -  5  NNE  23    3.4    12.6    8 - 11   NE  47

1/2    7am   2 -  4  NNE  22    3.2    11.7    8 - 11    E  80
1/2    1pm   2 -  4  NNE  22    3.4    11.6   11 - 16  ENE  55

1/3    7am   1 -  3   NE  35    4.2     7.5   15 - 21    E  88
1/3    1pm   1 -  2  ENE  59    4.3     5.7   16 - 22  ENE  65

1/4    7am   1 -  3  ENE  63    4.3     6.4   15 - 20    E  88
1/4    1pm   1 -  3  ENE  62    4.0     6.4   12 - 16    E  81

1/5    7am   1 -  2  ENE  59    3.2     6.7    8 - 11    E  98
1/5    1pm   1 -  3  NNE  21    2.7    11.1    0 -  0  NNE  25

CRNW Forecast of 2019-0524, Fri am

Wow! We are now a step away from being within the Buoyweather forecast window!

In the run-up, I see some large surf but also some bad winds (although the local wind info tends to be a weak link in the forecast package). The swells have good periodicity but a surprising amount of west in them for this time of year.

  Model Cycle: 2019 MAY 24 06Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 7 hours              
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
5/24  11am   4 -  8   SW 212    5.0    14.5    7 - 10  SSE 166
5/25  11am   6 - 12   SW 224    5.8    17.5   10 - 14  SSE 169
5/26  11am   6 - 13   SW 222    7.4    15.4    8 - 11  SSE 150

5/27  11am   5 - 11   SW 221    6.6    14.1   10 - 14   NW 321
5/27   5pm   4 -  9   SW 221    5.6    14.1    7 -  9  NNW 341
 
5/28   5am   6 - 12   SW 228    5.5    18.7    5 -  7  ESE 114
5/28  11am   6 - 12   SW 227    5.9    18.2    3 -  4    S 189
5/28   5pm   6 - 13   SW 227    6.3    17.8    4 -  5    S 187
 
5/29   5am   8 - 16   SW 226    8.1    17.2    7 -  9  SSE 168
5/29  11am   8 - 17   SW 224    9.0    16.6   11 - 15  SSW 199
5/29   5pm   9 - 19   SW 224    9.8    16.5   17 - 23  WSW 231
 
5/30   5am   8 - 17   SW 223    9.1    15.8   16 - 22  SSW 202
5/30  11am   9 - 19   SW 222   10.4    15.6   15 - 20  SSW 207
5/30   5pm   9 - 19   SW 222   10.2    15.5   12 - 16  SSE 166

Wednesday at 3:24pm CST

Next 24 Hrs

S/SW wind protected spots, monitoring the tropics

Not watching the tropics

Next 7 days

• Best Surf Next 7 Days: May need to wait till next week for favorable winds to return
• Messy conditions with onshore winds due to tropical low pressure nearby
• Plenty of Southern Hemi energy through the end of the month

This table informs on the mix of swell conditions to be expected... and some of the result challenges or joy points!


Long Term Forecast Analysis (Saturday May 25th and Beyond)

South Pacific: A new and more 'westerly' SW/SSW swell (220-210) to build in this weekend and peak Monday. The LOLA model is looking a hair generous on this one still, but expect fun size chest-shoulder high+ surf Monday. The more westerly exposed breaks in Nica and El Sal go 1-2'+ overhead on sets. This swell then gradually drops off into mid next week.

LOLA wave heights for the South Pacific depict plenty of energy headed towards the Central Americas over the next week or so.

Hot on that swells heels will be a stronger shot of SW/SSW swell (230-210). The storm that is producing this swell is currently strengthening in the SW Pacific, and seems to be mildly outperforming guidance at the moment with satellite confirmed swells outside the peak generation zone of 26-28', a large swath of 45kt+ winds within this storm aimed well at the Central American coast. This swell is projected to begin filling in Tuesday with head high to overhead surf, pushing 2-3+ overhead surf into the region by next Wednesday afternoon.

NOTE - on both the above mentioned swells, Costa Rica will once again see the majority of shadowing from the Galapagos. So you can expect slightly smaller and less consistent surf for that region. 

Farther out, longer range models/charts show plenty of storm activity continuing in the S PAC. This will likely deliver more medium to potentially solid SW/SSW swell to Central America into early June. Stay tuned.