Still feeling as if I am just back from 4 weeks in Europe, 6 time zones away and 4 years older than my last 6-time-zones-trip (which seems to be a magnitude older that the previous similar trip just two years earlier in 2016). So... I had not looked at any forecasts while away and barely since returning.
Yesterday I briefly looked at the Table Data source shown below and it has changed some in the past day. The one thing I noticed yesterday was the vast preponderance of swells in the 215° and greater which reflect a westerly influence in even the SW swells. I also noticed a ton of westerly swells in the secondary swells which at this time of year usually indicates a preponderance of low period onshore directed winds/wind swells.
Today I am pleased to see more S/SW swellage as primary swell sources but there still is a noticeable amount of westerly wind swell. So, what does this mean to me (not even factoring wind direction, wind strength and tides)? Surfy waves but the need for more caution and adaptation. More closeouts and a lot more sectioning waves. Some long, clean waves will still come through but the westerly wind swell will be tampering with many of those waves we choose to catch. It also means increased awareness of the inside rocks because the normal predictability of the wave can't be relied upon.
Why is all this happening? My only guess can be the La Niña forces all about us. It is also affecting the winds in these forecasts with less calm morning winds and those mostly of the side-shore/on-shore type which is atypical even during the Green Season. As Windy is showing, the Pacific's Cat3 hurricane, Agatha, is going to cross over Mexico and reform gradually in the Gulf of Mexico before crossing central FL and gathering more strength, by then a tropical storm or hurricane.
Expert Analysis From Two Days Ago, Next Update Likely This Evening
LONGER RANGE: The SPAC is staying busy. Good looking lows moving away New Zealand are due to send up another run of SW Southern Hemi, the first slightly stronger than the one mentioned above, that tops out during the back half of the upcoming week, June, 2nd-4th, then a notch or two smaller SW swell in the 6th-8th time frame. Extended progs are showing potential for a larger round of S swell moving in for the 11th-13th. We’ll keep you posted on the progress of these storm/swell systems as they continue to develop.
This Visualization from the Captain of Surf:
