Disturbance 95L east-northeast of Puerto Rico
Another tropical wave (95L) near 19N 55W, a few hundred miles east-northeast of Puerto Rico, remains disorganized. However, this disturbance has the potential to be trouble for Bermuda or the U.S. East Coast, and needs to be monitored. Visible satellite loops show only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but there is some evidence of rotation in the clouds. This morning's QuickSCAT pass missed 95L, but last night's pass showed a wind shift (no surface circulation). Wind shear is a marginal 15-20 knots over 95L, but is forecast to decrease to zero by Thursday and remain below 15 knots for most of the remainder of the week. NHC is giving 95L a medium (20%-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. All of the models develop 95L, with most of them foreseeing northwest track and a threat to Bermuda 5-7 days from now. However, the ECMWF model takes 95L westward into Florida 7-8 days from now.
Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the computer models forecast the development of two more tropical waves between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the coming week, and it is possible we will have three or four simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic a week from now (Figure 2).
 clipped from www.wunderground.com
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Figure 2. The ECMWF 8-day forecast valid Tuesday, September 2 at 8 pm EDT. The ECMWF model was initialized at 00 GMT Tuesday, August 26, 2008. The model is predicting a parade of four tropical storms or hurricanes stretched out across the Atlantic: Gustav, 95L, and the as yet hypothetical 96L and 97L. Image credit: ECMWF.
My next blog will be this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
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