Thursday, December 29, 2016

PRNW Forecast of 2016-1229a

Heading into surf forecast & report window... shows diminishing surf on travel day. 
Most everything has been marginal ENE with wind so not really a big factor for the 
west coast potential. Although today looks like a nice small fun day... really what I
need anyway! 
 
 Model Cycle: 2016 DEC 29 06Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 4 hours              
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
12/29  8am   3 -  6   NE  47    5.5     9.6    7 - 10    E  89
12/29  2pm   2 -  5   NE  47    5.2     9.4    5 -  6   NE  39
 
12/30  8am   2 -  5  ENE  52    4.6     9.2    7 -  9  ESE 104
12/30  2pm   2 -  4   NE  49    4.3     9.4    6 -  8   NW 316

12/31  8am   1 -  3  ENE  58    3.5     8.9    9 - 12    E  85
12/31  2pm   1 -  3  ENE  61    3.5     8.8   13 - 17   NE  44

1/1    8am   2 -  5  ENE  59    6.2     6.9   19 - 26  ENE  77
1/1    2pm   3 -  6  NNE  27    6.5     8.5   16 - 21  ENE  63 
 
1/2    8am   2 -  5   NE  41    6.4     7.8   17 - 24  ENE  75
1/2    2pm   3 -  6   NE  44    6.5     7.8   18 - 25  ENE  61 
 
1/3    8am   2 -  5   NE  47    6.1     8.1   15 - 20  ENE  74
1/3    2pm   2 -  5   NE  47    5.8     8.0   15 - 21  ENE  57 
 
1/4    8am   2 -  4  ENE  50    4.4     7.9    7 -  9    E  99
1/4    2pm   1 -  3  ENE  54    4.0     7.9    4 -  5  NNW 347
 
1/5    2am   1 -  3  ENE  54    3.7     7.9    9 - 12    E  92
 
 
Effective Thursday morning
 
SHORT TERM FORECAST (THROUGH FRIDAY 12/30):
Highlights: ENE trade swell and NNE swell mix is in the water through the end of the week.

Steady ENE trade swell from high pressure over the central Atlantic continues for the island through the second half of the week. The trade swell remains strongest for the N coast, however some of this is wrapping into the more exposed northerly facing breaks in Rincon. A pulse of NNE swell from low pressure previously over the northern Atlantic will mix in through the day today. Sets in the overhead+ range will continue for the N coast with lighter winds and more favorable conditions for the day. Expect a notch smaller, cleaner surf for Rincon. Fun sized but easing ENE trade swell and NNE swell mix is in the water for the region on Friday, strongest early and biggest for the N coast.

Winds: Light E/ESE winds around 4-8kts are expected during the morning hours today and Friday. Stronger ENE trade winds pick up for the N coast for the late mornings into the afternoon hours, while Rincon sees light to moderate onshore winds develop.

EXTENDED SURF FORECAST (SATURDAY 12/31 AND BEYOND):
Highlights: Smaller leftovers fade for the early weekend. A pulse of NNW swell filters in on Sunday, with NNW swell and building trade windswell early next week.
Smaller ENE trade swell and NNE swell leftovers fade through the day on Saturday. The surf remains strongest for the N coast with sets around the stomach high+ range early, while Rincon sees smaller 1-2' surf.

A frontal system moves off the Northeast US late this week as high pressure builds to the south. Winds between these features will result in an area of elevated winds over the western Atlantic and a pulse of NNW swell from this begins to filter in on Sunday. Redeveloping ENE trade windswell is expected for the N coast early next week, so the NNW swell will be mostly overshadowed for those breaks on Monday and Tuesday. Rincon should see a fun wave from the NNW swell on Sunday through Tuesday. Expect easing trade windswell and leftover NNW swell by the middle of next week. Be sure to check back for the latest updates.
 

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