Sunday, May 28, 2017

CRNW 2017-0528 (Sun) Forecast

This forecast is still beyond the forecast window... just a "getting to know you feel" of what is going on and what the future might hold.

  Model Cycle: 2017 MAY 28 12Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 6 hours              
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
5/28  12pm   2 -  5  SSW 195    3.9    12.6    3 -  4  WNW 294
5/28   6pm   4 -  9  SSW 199    4.2    18.9    4 -  6  WNW 303
 
5/29   6am   5 - 10  SSW 197    4.8    17.8    9 - 13  ENE  68
5/29  12pm   4 -  9  SSW 200    4.8    17.0    4 -  6   SE 132 
 
5/30   6am   4 -  8  SSW 198    4.7    15.5    5 -  7    E  91
5/30  12pm   4 -  8  SSW 203    4.7    15.2    5 -  7  SSE 158 
 
5/31   6am   3 -  7   SW 213    4.3    14.2    2 -  4    E  96
5/31  12pm   3 -  7   SW 219    4.2    14.3    4 -  5  SSE 163 
 
5/1    6am   3 -  7   SW 218    4.3    13.8    4 -  5    S 174
6/1   12pm   3 -  6   SW 217    4.2    13.7    4 -  6  WSW 243 
 
6/2    6am   4 -  8   SW 218    4.4    16.9    3 -  4  WNW 309
6/2   12pm   4 -  8   SW 216    4.4    16.5    4 -  5  WNW 301 
 
6/3    6am   3 -  7   SW 219    4.5    14.8    2 -  3  NNW 348
6/3   12pm   3 -  7   SW 217    4.4    14.8    4 -  5  WNW 291 
 
6/4    6am   3 -  7   SW 211    4.2    15.2    2 -  3   NE  45
 
 
Effective Friday evening
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS   
  • Modest yet fun South-SW swells rest of May
  • Good size SW swell June 3-5
  • Possibly more sizable SW swell June 6-8
SHORT TERM FORECAST: (through Wednesday, May 31st)                              
Swell/Surf: Over the rest of May, a series of modest yet fun size South-SW swells will find their way up to Central America. So for the next several days, surf will generally hang within the waist-head high zone across the better exposures throughout the region. Saturday morning will see occasional slightly overhead sets for select magnets, especially during the more favorable tides.

Wind/Weather: Most of Costa will see a diurnal wind pattern for the next several days; calm to light/variable to locally light+ to moderate offshore wind through the early to mid mornings (depending on precise location), before a moderate onshore seabreeze gradually develops over the late morning/afternoons (a little stronger for some areas, lighter for others). The northern half of the Nicoya Peninsula will see light+ to moderate offshore flow in the mornings (moderate to breezy in some areas) early next week, before a light+ seabreeze develops in the afternoons.


EXTENDED FORECAST: (Thursday, June 1st, and beyond)   
         
Swell/Surf: We have recently been watching the progress of a large, complex storm system as it has been slowly moving across the South Pacific, with multiple areas of low pressure associated with it. This storm system has already been pushing out swell for Central America, but more is soon to come from it. One such low is developing right now in the Southeast Pacific, becoming intense with wind speeds up to 35-45kts and possibly stronger in the next 12-24hrs.

As a result, a good SW swell (230-200°) will build in late on the 1st through the 2nd and into the 3rd, peaking on Saturday the 3rd and holding through Sunday the 4th with head-overhead surf across the region. Standout spots are looking at sets running in the 2-3 feet overhead, while select magnets produce occasional waves up to double overhead. Stay tuned for the next update on Monday the 29th as this swell fully develops.

Following right behind that may be more strong lows to traverse the South Pacific, pushing out more solid SW-SSW swell for around June 6th-8th. Stay posted.

 
 
 

Random Notes:
There is hardly anyone out in Playa Grande for the afternoon high tide surf sessions but it wouldn’t surprise us to see some afternoon glass offs and fun waves here and there for the next couple of rainy season weeks. The wind will go back off shore around the middle of June if we have a normal season and our indian summer will typically produce some consistent, great surf.


 



Friday, May 12, 2017

CRNW 2017-0512 (Fri) Itching to Go Forecast

Just a peak at what is happening.


  Model Cycle: 2017 MAY 12 12Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 6 hours              
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
5/12   6am   4 -  8  SSW 204    4.8    14.5    8 - 10  WNW 286
5/12  12pm   4 -  8   SW 211    4.8    14.3    7 - 10    W 261
 
5/13  12pm   3 -  6  SSW 205    3.8    13.1    3 -  4  WNW 306
5/13   6pm   2 -  5   SW 210    3.6    12.7    4 -  6    W 268
 
5/14   6am   2 -  5   SW 211    3.4    12.5    5 -  7   NW 316
5/14  12pm   2 -  4  SSW 204    3.3    12.3    5 -  8  WNW 292
 
5/15   6am   3 -  6   SW 222    3.5    15.4    6 -  8  WNW 302
5/15  12pm   3 -  6   SW 222    3.6    14.9    6 -  8  WNW 290
 
5/16   6am   3 -  6   SW 221    3.6    14.1    2 -  3  WSW 251
5/16  12pm   3 -  6   SW 220    3.6    14.1    5 -  7  WSW 247
 
5/17   6am   2 -  5   SW 219    3.5    13.3    2 -  3  WSW 232
5/17  12pm   4 -  8  SSW 208    3.7    17.9    5 -  7    W 270

5/18   6am   4 -  9  SSW 203    4.7    16.1    3 -  4    N   9
5/18  12pm   4 -  8  SSW 203    4.8    15.6    4 -  6  NNW 332

5/19   6am   4 -  8  SSW 206    4.8    14.9    0 -  0  NNW 334
 
 
Effective Wednesday afternoon
          FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS  
  • Fun S/SSW swell holds thru Sat
  • Potential swell from TS Adrian short/mid range
  • More S/SSW swell in long range
SHORT TERM FORECAST: (through SATURDAY, May 13th)                           

Swell/Surf: New S/SSW (190-210) swell builds slightly through the day on Thursday, and holds through Saturday. Surf heights during this time frame should be in the shoulder high to a couple feet overhead range with standouts seeing well overhead sets, especially during optimal tides. We are also watching for potential low/mid period W/WSW swell due to Tropical Storm Adrian. See below for more details.  

Wind/Weather: Look for the typical wind pattern of calm or light offshore in the mornings with a light to locally moderate seabreeze developing by late AM/Early PM. Potential clean ups are possible in the evenings, especially around local thunderstorms. 

EXTENDED FORECAST: (SUNDAY, May 14th, and beyond)              

South Pacific: The S/SSW swell will ease on Sunday with surf heights in the waist to head high range (good for Brett), biggest early.  This swell continues to ease for Tuesday and Wednesday as some smaller SSW energy mixes in (now Brett can get his game on!). Also, we are watching for potential W/WSW swell from Adrian during this time frame, but again, there is a large amount of uncertainty in the details.

Going further out, a fairly robust fetch has set up south of New Zealand, which is forecast to send potentially solid long period energy to Costa Rica starting on Thursday, the 18th.  So far, satellite confirmed seas are in line with LOLA, but we will keep an eye on how this evolves over the coming days. At the moment, well overhead+ surf is possible on the 18th through the 20th (Tim and Rod ramp it up!! Red is the danger warning for Brett). It is also worth noting that in the longer range, the South Pacific is looking fairly active so there should be more potential for fun to solid size surf for late in the month. Stay tuned.