Irma Recent Developments as of Mon, 2017-0904

My comments follow and caveat: These are long-range forecasts and subject to change. My comments reflect observations of some forecast changes over the past few days.

Irma's 5-day forecast track has it taking a more western/southerly tilt. Two days ago it basically tracked along the eastern edge of the Bahamas and north towards North Carolina. Over the past 48 hours the forecast track increasingly took the storm deeper and deeper into the Bahamas.

This morning's 8am forecast track has it going over Cuba before turning north, making an elbow turn just south of the tip of FL. The Irma forecast has it heading straight up the gut of FL over Orlando with hurricane force winds.






Live link for the model above (will run the most current forecast reflecting the time you click the link):
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/viewer.shtml?-multi_1-latest-NW_atlantic-u10-








The extended long range model that goes out beyond 180 hours. See the eye of the tropical storm over Orlando and tropical storm force winds over most of Florida, on Tue, Sept 12, 2017.



Caveat: These are long-range forecasts. Much can still change. Be prepared!