CRNW Forecast of 2023-0609 noon

Some atypically small surf in the forecast for early- mid-week coming. Sunday will be a day to use all one's energy! 

Good time to be getting out as by 9am the tide will be in a highish 8.5 ft.

Near Term Best Bets From One Day Ago

• OVER THUR/FRI: Surf will be strongest Thurs compared to Fri, but not by too much
• Early mornings and evenings to see the lightest wind and cleanest conditions

Forecast Highlights

• Best Surf in the Next 7 Days: Thurs AM, then Sat/Sun
• Old/easing SSW swell over the next few days
• Fresh pulse of fun-size SSW swell due to arrive for the weekend (partially shadowed)

Mainland Mexico and Central America Forecast From Two Days Ago

HIGHLIGHTS 

• The current SSW swell eases over the next few days with a new SSW-S pulse due to arrive by the weekend
• Typical wind patterns prevail for most areas, with lightest/most favorable wind in the early mornings 
• Only modest SW swell lining up for next week at this time

SHORT-TERM FORECAST (rest of this week)

A smaller, yet still sizable pulse of more southerly angled swell is en route for the weekend. Overall, we’ll see the surf decrease to a more modest yet fun-zone across the better exposures of Mainland Mex and Central America over Thurs/Fri, then bumping back up some on the weekend.

The most recent storm development near the southern tip of South America the past few days wasn’t all that large, but it was intense, packing wind speeds reaching 35-50 knots within the fetch aimed northward at Mex and Cen Am. Although the track could have been better (moved eastward instead of north), this is about as close as South Pacific storms will come to the region. The result will be a decent shot of swell (SSW 205-185° for Central America) to slowly build over Fri/Sat, topping out over Saturday and into Sunday from south to north along the coast (first for CenAm on Sat). Note that this swell will show strongest for Central America and southern most Mexico, where standout exposed breaks are looking to offer sets running in the zone of head high to 2-3 feet overhead when this energy tops out. 

NOTE – There will be some Galapagos shadowing on this next swell from easternmost El Sal through Nica and northern Costa Rica, stripping a portion of the energy away and resulting in smaller, less consistent surf.
Meanwhile, we’ll continue to see the usual diurnal wind pattern across much of Central America and Mexico through the rest of this week, with widespread light/variable to light+ offshore winds in the early mornings, shifting to a light+ to moderate afternoon seabreeze. Keep an eye on the evenings for many spots to see the wind slack off before dark. Even SW Nicaragua is looking at a diurnal wind pattern for the rest of this week, but may return to the traditional ‘all-day offshores’ next week. Also, note local storms can affect the wind/conditions for select areas through each day. For a detailed look at your spots of interest be sure to check out our wind charts.

MEDIUM-TO-LONG-TERM OUTLOOK (next week and beyond)

South Pacific
After that, the surf is looking to ease very slowly through the first-half of next week, while similar local wind conditions may persist (although, SW Nica may return back to offshores). Continued storm activity in the southeast corner of the Pacific over the next couple days will deliver fresh mid period energy from the SSW-S through Mon/Tues the 12th-13th, with sets around the chest-head high zone for top exposed breaks of Central America and Southern Mex (likely inconsistent), smaller further north.

Further out, we’re currently watching the progress of a developing storm deep in the Southwest Pacific, which will evolve further as it slowly moves eastward. At this time, we’re not anticipating anything major to spawn from this system but the potential is high for at least more fun-size (head high+) surf through the second-half of next week.

CRNW Forecast of 2023-0605 noonish

 We have seen larger and spunkier this time of year but not bad as La Niña continues to transition--and certainly a lot better than this past Jan-Apr. May did have quite a run of surf...

The surf appears to dip on Tue & Wed, but resumes with a healthier underlying swell on Thur.

We'll have to see how this plays out.

 3 DAYS

Mainland Mexico and Central America Forecast

HIGHLIGHTS 

• SSW swell peaks Saturday then eases to end the weekend. Then a stronger pulse of SSW swell expected to peak early next week.
• Typical wind patterns prevail for most areas, with lightest/most favorable flow of the day in the mornings, best early 
• Solid SSW swell to start the week eases into the end of the week. Fresh SPAC swell due longer range.

SHORT-TERM FORECAST (June 3rd-4th):

The SPAC keeps providing as we are looking at another round of fun-good sized surf for this weekend. Saturday AM is looking like the window to target for good size/winds as SSW swell from the end of the week tops out. We see plenty of head high to overhead surf for most areas as standouts of Central America go well overhead. Premier breaks in Mexico are hitting 2-3x overhead. There will be plenty of leftovers Sunday as old SSW swell eases. Meanwhile some new, longer period SSW swell enters the mix to end the weekend. Surf generally is around the chest to head to overhead zone Sunday, with Mexican standouts still going well overhead to double overhead+ on sets.

Just minor NW pulses due to dribble into best wintertime exposures, primarily in the Riviera Nayarit region but nothing that really gets above waist high. Summertime exposures are the easy call if you’re looking for more surf.

Standard diurnal wind pattern continues for much of Central America and Mexico through the end of the week, with widespread light/variable to light+ offshore winds in the early mornings, shifting to a modest-moderate afternoon sea breeze. Many spots see the onshores ease late afternoon into the evenings. 

For a detailed look at your spots of interest be sure to check out our wind charts.

 

MEDIUM-TO-LONG-TERM OUTLOOK (June 5th and beyond):

South Pacific

Stronger, longer-period SSW swell is scheduled to max out early in the first full week of June, for widespread head high to well overhead waves the 5th-7th. Surf is scheduled to build on Monday, peak Tuesday, then begin to ease on Wednesday. Top breaks go 2x overhead while Mexico standouts are biggest and could go several times overhead for Tuesday. Smaller surf is expected for the rest of the week as SSW swell eases Wednesday into Friday.

Another stronger SSW swell is due to filter in Sunday and peak early next week (5th into the 6th), courtesy of a succession of storms that tracked across the SPAC during the end of May

Then longer range we are due for another round of SPAC swell some time around the weekend of the 10th/11th, although this is not expected to be as strong as the previous swell earlier in the week. This is courtesy of storm expected to develop off the southern coast of Chile over this weekend into early week (3rd-5th) while being flanked by strong high pressure to its west. We will have a better idea of the specifics for this next swell as we gather observations this weekend into early next week. Stay tuned.

More SPAC swell due the weekend of the 10th/11th, courtesy of a developing storm in the eastern South Pacific this weekend into early week (3rd-5th). <<My emphasis added>>