Is That Ike Shaping Up in the Cape Verde Region?

Almost looks like an eye in Invest 97 (97L, what could evolve into the next named tropical storm, Ike).

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Looks What's Coming Our Way!

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog (1:20 PM EDT on August 28, 2008)

It's time to get familiar with the names Hanna, Josephine, Ike, and Kyle, because the tropical Atlantic is about to put on a rare burst of very high activity in the coming weeks.

clipped from www.wunderground.com

Figure: Visible satellite image from 7:30 am EDT Thursday August 28, 2008. A long line of impressive tropical waves is lined up over the Atlantic and Africa. Image credit: U.S. Navy.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the computer models forecast the development of at least one additional tropical wave between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands during the coming week. The first candidate is a large circulation located near 18N, 39W, 800 hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. While the circulation of this system is impressive, the system is devoid of any heavy thunderstorm activity, and is surrounded by a large are of dry air to the west and north. Wind shear is a moderate to marginal 10-20 knots in the region, and forecast to remain in the moderate to marginal range for the next few days. NHC is giving this system a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. Some slow development is possible over the next few days, but the system has a better chance 3-5 days from now, when its environment will be moister. Several of the models develop it, and predict the system will be a few hundred miles north of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Monday Tuesday. Like the ocean, the atmosphere also has waves. Large-scale atmospheric waves form over Africa during the African summer monsoon season, track east to west, and emerge over the Atlantic Ocean near the Cape Verde Islands, where they often serve as the nucleus for a powerful Cape Verdes-type hurricane. Well, the African Easterly Wave Factory is exceptionally busy right now, and there are three very impressive looking waves with plenty of spin lined up across the continent (see figure).

The western-most wave, just coming off the coast of Africa today, is particularly impressive. This system has a very large circulation with plenty of spin, and is already developing some concentrated heavy thunderstorms over the waters south of the Cape Verde Islands. This morning's QuikSCAT pass saw winds of 50 mph near the heaviest thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10-20 knots over the storm, and is expected to remain in the low to moderate range the next few days. NHC has given this system a medium (20%-50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The models have been very aggressive developing this system over the past few days, and chances are good that this system will become a large and powerful Cape Verdes-type hurricane next week. It is too early to speculate whether this storm might end up recurving out to sea or not.

The other two waves lined up behind the wave moving off the coast are also likely to be a threat to develop once they move offshore Africa next week. The long-range GFS model develops all three of these waves.

Jeff Masters

2008 Conga Line - Early Signs of Formation in Late August

From Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog of 8/26/08 (morning):

Disturbance 95L east-northeast of Puerto Rico

Another tropical wave (95L) near 19N 55W, a few hundred miles east-northeast of Puerto Rico, remains disorganized. However, this disturbance has the potential to be trouble for Bermuda or the U.S. East Coast, and needs to be monitored. Visible satellite loops show only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but there is some evidence of rotation in the clouds. This morning's QuickSCAT pass missed 95L, but last night's pass showed a wind shift (no surface circulation). Wind shear is a marginal 15-20 knots over 95L, but is forecast to decrease to zero by Thursday and remain below 15 knots for most of the remainder of the week. NHC is giving 95L a medium (20%-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. All of the models develop 95L, with most of them foreseeing northwest track and a threat to Bermuda 5-7 days from now. However, the ECMWF model takes 95L westward into Florida 7-8 days from now.

Elsewhere in the tropics

Most of the computer models forecast the development of two more tropical waves between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the coming week, and it is possible we will have three or four simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic a week from now (Figure 2).

clipped from www.wunderground.com

Figure 2. The ECMWF 8-day forecast valid Tuesday, September 2 at 8 pm EDT. The ECMWF model was initialized at 00 GMT Tuesday, August 26, 2008. The model is predicting a parade of four tropical storms or hurricanes stretched out across the Atlantic: Gustav, 95L, and the as yet hypothetical 96L and 97L. Image credit: ECMWF.

My next blog will be this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

OC Md Forecast for Week of 6/30/08

Looks like we may some mini mackers.

Bowie Baysox Game?

This might be a good night to go - waddya think?

clipped from www.baysox.com :: BAYSOX GAME INFO :: Harrisburg Senators July 22, 2008 - 7:05 PM Belly Buster Bargain Night Description: Belly Buster Bargain Night! Sponsored by The Pennysaver FREE Foot-long hot dog, popcorn and bag of peanuts with the purchase of a regular price Lower Reserved Seat Ticket! ($14 ticket)

OC Longboard Challenge Luau

Talking shapes.

clipped from mail.google.com

SR's Forcast as of 3/31/08 am

Model Cycle: 2008 MAR 31 06Z
Time Zone: GMT - 7 hours
-------------------------------------------------------------
SURF SURF DIR SWELL PERIOD WIND WND/DIR
(ft) (deg) (ft) (sec) (kts) (deg)
------- -------- ----- ------ ------- -------

4/2 5am 3 - 7 SSW 206 4.3 13.8 5 - 7 NE 44
4/2 11am 4 - 8 SW 210 4.5 15.9 3 - 5 NNW 346
4/2 5pm 4 - 8 SW 210 4.7 15.8 7 - 10 SW 222

4/3 5am 4 - 8 SW 211 4.9 15.2 5 - 7 NE 47
4/3 11am 4 - 9 SW 211 5.0 15.0 0 - 1 NNW 336
4/3 5pm 4 - 9 SW 211 5.1 14.9 5 - 8 SW 223

4/4 5am 4 - 8 SW 212 5.0 14.5 2 - 4 NNE 25
4/4 11am 4 - 8 SW 212 5.0 14.3 2 - 3 WSW 246
4/4 5pm 4 - 8 SW 212 4.9 14.3 4 - 6 SW 214

4/5 5am 3 - 7 SW 212 4.6 13.9 3 - 4 N 8
4/5 11am 3 - 7 SW 212 4.4 13.6 2 - 4 WNW 297
4/5 5pm 3 - 6 SW 211 4.3 13.5 4 - 6 WNW 286

4/6 5am 3 - 6 SW 210 4.1 13.4 4 - 6 N 352
4/6 11am 3 - 6 SW 210 4.0 13.4 5 - 7 WNW 302
4/6 5pm 3 - 6 SW 210 4.0 13.8 7 - 10 WNW 282

SR's Forecast onf 3/29/08

-------------------------------------------------------------
           SURF    SURF DIR  SWELL  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
           (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
          -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
4/1    5pm   3 -  6  SSW 209    3.5    14.7    8 - 11   SW 225

4/2    5am   3 -  7   SW 214    3.8    17.3    8 - 10   NE  37
4/2   11am   3 -  7   SW 212    3.9    16.7    4 -  6  WNW 306
4/2    5pm   4 -  8   SW 213    4.2    16.0    7 - 10  WNW 280

4/3    5am   4 -  8   SW 214    4.5    15.7    8 - 11  ENE  76
4/3   11am   4 -  8   SW 214    4.6    15.3    4 -  6    W 272
4/3    5pm   4 -  8   SW 214    4.5    15.0    4 -  5  SSW 206

4/4    5am   3 -  7   SW 215    4.5    14.8    5 -  7  ENE  70
4/4   11am   3 -  7   SW 215    4.4    14.5    4 -  5  WSW 250
4/4    5pm   3 -  7   SW 215    4.3    14.3    7 - 10  SSW 194

4/5    5am   3 -  6   SW 215    4.1    14.1    2 -  3  ENE  59
4/5   11am   3 -  6   SW 215    3.9    13.7    6 -  8    W 277

Area Weather Forecast:
Wed Apr 02 Isolated T-Storms    96°/72°
Thu Apr 03 PM T-Storms          97°/72°
Fri Apr 04 Scattered T-Storms   96°/72°
Sat Apr 05 Scattered Showers    97°/72°
Sun Apr 06 Mostly Sunny         98°/73°
Mon Apr 07 Scattered T-Storms   97°/73°

SPAC SYNOPSIS: We’ve seen a flurry of intense South Hemi
storms lately with developing lows spinning out from under New Zealand
and tracking towards the Central-South Pacific...  Further out; another
strong system developed through the past few days
and sent out another decent SW groundswell (200-220) for April 2-3 with
more head-overhead surf before backing down. Beyond that; the South
Pacific looks to remain cyclonically active as another storm is
currently developing deep in the South Hemi. Therefore, the SW energy
doesn't look to stop for the long-range. Stay posted as this system
unfolds.
Our next forecast update here will be Monday evening at 8 PM.

SR's Forcast as of 3/28/08 am

Looking good for Day 1 and Day 2









SPAC SYNOPSIS: We’ve seen a flurry of intense South Hemi storms lately with developing lows spinning out from under New Zealand and tracking towards the Central-South Pacific. A good sized SW swell lines up for the end of the week with fading surf expected for the weekend. Another shot of swell is on tap for the early part of April.

Our current run of SW groundswell (205-215) continues to build through the day on Thursday offering plenty of head-well overhead surf, strongest in the afternoon hours. This SW swell tops out on Friday and we can expect head-double overhead waves. Then SW energy very slowly tapers off through the weekend with head-overhead surf on Saturday dropping into the waist-head+ range for Sunday. Expect this round of SW swell to continue to fade for the early part of next week as well. Expect great conditions in the early mornings the next few days with calm/light offshore flow before the afternoon seabreeze picks up from the SW/SSW.

A system currently coming together in the Central SPAC will result in a decent run of SSW swell (205-215) filling in on Tuesday (April 1st) with head-well overhead surf expected for next Wednesday-Friday (April 2nd-4th). Stay posted as we continue to monitor this storm as it runs its course over the next few days. Further out, the South Pacific looks to remain cyclonically active through the end of March resulting in plenty of surf in the longer range as well. Be sure to check back for the latest updates over the next couple of days as we see continue to watch things unfold.

Our next forecast update here will be Friday evening at 8 PM

SR's Coming Up

First buoyweather indicator rolls in on Thu morning (3/27)
one week before the trip. It is looking "up" wouldn't you say?










SPAC SYNOPSIS: We’ve seen a flurry of intense South
Hemi storms lately with developing lows spinning out
from under New Zealand and tracking towards the
Central-South Pacific. A good sized SW swell lines up
for the end of the week with fading surf expected for
the weekend. Another shot of swell is on tap for the
early part of April.

A system currently coming together in the Central SPAC
will result in a decent run of SSW swell (205-215)
filling in on Tuesday (April 1st) with head-well
overhead surf expected for next Wednesday-Friday
(April 2nd-4th). Stay posted as we continue to monitor
this storm as it runs its course over the next few
days. Further out, the South Pacific looks to remain
cyclonically active through the end of March resulting
in plenty of surf in the longer range as well. Be sure
to check back for the latest updates over the next
couple of days as we see continue to watch things unfold.