PRNW Forecast of 2024-0105 (morning)

 Looks like some surf upcoming.

PRNW Forecast of 2024-0103 (morning)

Forecast range showing swell in the water with regular intervals.

 

CRNW Forecast of 2023-0609 noon

Some atypically small surf in the forecast for early- mid-week coming. Sunday will be a day to use all one's energy! 

Good time to be getting out as by 9am the tide will be in a highish 8.5 ft.

Near Term Best Bets From One Day Ago

• OVER THUR/FRI: Surf will be strongest Thurs compared to Fri, but not by too much
• Early mornings and evenings to see the lightest wind and cleanest conditions

Forecast Highlights

• Best Surf in the Next 7 Days: Thurs AM, then Sat/Sun
• Old/easing SSW swell over the next few days
• Fresh pulse of fun-size SSW swell due to arrive for the weekend (partially shadowed)

Mainland Mexico and Central America Forecast From Two Days Ago

HIGHLIGHTS 

• The current SSW swell eases over the next few days with a new SSW-S pulse due to arrive by the weekend
• Typical wind patterns prevail for most areas, with lightest/most favorable wind in the early mornings 
• Only modest SW swell lining up for next week at this time

SHORT-TERM FORECAST (rest of this week)

A smaller, yet still sizable pulse of more southerly angled swell is en route for the weekend. Overall, we’ll see the surf decrease to a more modest yet fun-zone across the better exposures of Mainland Mex and Central America over Thurs/Fri, then bumping back up some on the weekend.

The most recent storm development near the southern tip of South America the past few days wasn’t all that large, but it was intense, packing wind speeds reaching 35-50 knots within the fetch aimed northward at Mex and Cen Am. Although the track could have been better (moved eastward instead of north), this is about as close as South Pacific storms will come to the region. The result will be a decent shot of swell (SSW 205-185° for Central America) to slowly build over Fri/Sat, topping out over Saturday and into Sunday from south to north along the coast (first for CenAm on Sat). Note that this swell will show strongest for Central America and southern most Mexico, where standout exposed breaks are looking to offer sets running in the zone of head high to 2-3 feet overhead when this energy tops out. 

NOTE – There will be some Galapagos shadowing on this next swell from easternmost El Sal through Nica and northern Costa Rica, stripping a portion of the energy away and resulting in smaller, less consistent surf.
Meanwhile, we’ll continue to see the usual diurnal wind pattern across much of Central America and Mexico through the rest of this week, with widespread light/variable to light+ offshore winds in the early mornings, shifting to a light+ to moderate afternoon seabreeze. Keep an eye on the evenings for many spots to see the wind slack off before dark. Even SW Nicaragua is looking at a diurnal wind pattern for the rest of this week, but may return to the traditional ‘all-day offshores’ next week. Also, note local storms can affect the wind/conditions for select areas through each day. For a detailed look at your spots of interest be sure to check out our wind charts.

MEDIUM-TO-LONG-TERM OUTLOOK (next week and beyond)

South Pacific
After that, the surf is looking to ease very slowly through the first-half of next week, while similar local wind conditions may persist (although, SW Nica may return back to offshores). Continued storm activity in the southeast corner of the Pacific over the next couple days will deliver fresh mid period energy from the SSW-S through Mon/Tues the 12th-13th, with sets around the chest-head high zone for top exposed breaks of Central America and Southern Mex (likely inconsistent), smaller further north.

Further out, we’re currently watching the progress of a developing storm deep in the Southwest Pacific, which will evolve further as it slowly moves eastward. At this time, we’re not anticipating anything major to spawn from this system but the potential is high for at least more fun-size (head high+) surf through the second-half of next week.

CRNW Forecast of 2023-0605 noonish

 We have seen larger and spunkier this time of year but not bad as La Niña continues to transition--and certainly a lot better than this past Jan-Apr. May did have quite a run of surf...

The surf appears to dip on Tue & Wed, but resumes with a healthier underlying swell on Thur.

We'll have to see how this plays out.

 3 DAYS

Mainland Mexico and Central America Forecast

HIGHLIGHTS 

• SSW swell peaks Saturday then eases to end the weekend. Then a stronger pulse of SSW swell expected to peak early next week.
• Typical wind patterns prevail for most areas, with lightest/most favorable flow of the day in the mornings, best early 
• Solid SSW swell to start the week eases into the end of the week. Fresh SPAC swell due longer range.

SHORT-TERM FORECAST (June 3rd-4th):

The SPAC keeps providing as we are looking at another round of fun-good sized surf for this weekend. Saturday AM is looking like the window to target for good size/winds as SSW swell from the end of the week tops out. We see plenty of head high to overhead surf for most areas as standouts of Central America go well overhead. Premier breaks in Mexico are hitting 2-3x overhead. There will be plenty of leftovers Sunday as old SSW swell eases. Meanwhile some new, longer period SSW swell enters the mix to end the weekend. Surf generally is around the chest to head to overhead zone Sunday, with Mexican standouts still going well overhead to double overhead+ on sets.

Just minor NW pulses due to dribble into best wintertime exposures, primarily in the Riviera Nayarit region but nothing that really gets above waist high. Summertime exposures are the easy call if you’re looking for more surf.

Standard diurnal wind pattern continues for much of Central America and Mexico through the end of the week, with widespread light/variable to light+ offshore winds in the early mornings, shifting to a modest-moderate afternoon sea breeze. Many spots see the onshores ease late afternoon into the evenings. 

For a detailed look at your spots of interest be sure to check out our wind charts.

 

MEDIUM-TO-LONG-TERM OUTLOOK (June 5th and beyond):

South Pacific

Stronger, longer-period SSW swell is scheduled to max out early in the first full week of June, for widespread head high to well overhead waves the 5th-7th. Surf is scheduled to build on Monday, peak Tuesday, then begin to ease on Wednesday. Top breaks go 2x overhead while Mexico standouts are biggest and could go several times overhead for Tuesday. Smaller surf is expected for the rest of the week as SSW swell eases Wednesday into Friday.

Another stronger SSW swell is due to filter in Sunday and peak early next week (5th into the 6th), courtesy of a succession of storms that tracked across the SPAC during the end of May

Then longer range we are due for another round of SPAC swell some time around the weekend of the 10th/11th, although this is not expected to be as strong as the previous swell earlier in the week. This is courtesy of storm expected to develop off the southern coast of Chile over this weekend into early week (3rd-5th) while being flanked by strong high pressure to its west. We will have a better idea of the specifics for this next swell as we gather observations this weekend into early next week. Stay tuned.

More SPAC swell due the weekend of the 10th/11th, courtesy of a developing storm in the eastern South Pacific this weekend into early week (3rd-5th). <<My emphasis added>>

CRNW Forecast of 2023-0526pm

The forecast has been looking good the past  4 to 6 weeks with El Niño power kicking in after three years of the sister effects. The winter and spring was slow and small -- happy about being at The Rock in March.

This weekend gets some big swell, 8-12 ft. The last day of the forecast range is also our arrival day, with 3-5 ft forecast. Although it appears to dip in the afternoon there might be something hiding in the secondary swell inside that increasing 19-20 sec period.

Below is the other famous forecasting group. The underlying surf data should be good, but I don't pay any attention to the wind forcast but offshore winds all day would be a treat, lol.

CRNW Forecast of Fri, 2022-0603am

Stormy and junky looking out there this morning (630am CR time) just after a regular-sized high tide. The wind appears to be very light side shore. It won't be very motivating to paddle out some days it appears except for the notion I won't be surfing until Fall. I honestly do not think there has been a more mixed up swell in the nearly 20 years of going to CR, in Spring and early Green Season. Oh the curse of a lousy full-on La Niña.

HIGHLIGHTS 

• Fresh SW swell moves in for the back half of the week
  
• More onshore flow developing, with early mornings seeing the most favorable winds for many areas
• Smaller Southern Hemis scheduled for the upcoming week 

WHAT’S HAPPENING: As an old SW swell eases going into the second half of the week, a new round of  slightly stronger SW(225-215) Southern Hemi will be filling in through the day on Thursday, with good exposures getting back into shoulder to head high+ surf  during the afternoon. Those better breaks are running head high to several feet overhead when the solid SW swell maxes out on Friday. Best of the best breaks, (aka Puerto Escondido, Mex), double those heights. Waves back slide through the weekend, but there will still be plenty of head high surf left on Sunday, showing strongest in the morning.

A widespread pattern of prevailing onshore winds is expected for the next several days. Early mornings see the most favorable winds in many areas, with a rising sea breeze to follow through the day. Be sure to check the High Res Wind charts for a detailed outlook on your  spots of interest.

LONGER RANGE: The SPAC looks to take a breather for a bit, as storm/swell production drops off. That means mainly just a pair of modest scale pulses of SW and S swell scheduled for next week. The first peaks during the 7th-8th, then the second tops out for the weekend, 11th-12th. Most spots average under shoulder high during those times. Extended progs are showing potential for a bit better shot of SSW swell around the 14th-16th time frame. We’ll keep you posted on the progress of all these storm/swell systems.

 

CRNW Forecast of Mon, 2022-0530 noon

Still feeling as if I am just back from 4 weeks in Europe, 6 time zones away and 4 years older than my last 6-time-zones-trip (which seems to be a magnitude older that the previous similar trip just two years earlier in 2016). So... I had not looked at any forecasts while away and barely since returning. 

Yesterday I briefly looked at the Table Data source shown below and it has changed some in the past day. The one thing I noticed yesterday was the vast preponderance of swells in the 215° and greater which reflect a westerly influence in even the SW swells. I also noticed a ton of westerly swells in the secondary swells which at this time of year usually indicates a preponderance of low period onshore directed winds/wind swells.

Today I am pleased to see more S/SW swellage as primary swell sources but there still is a noticeable amount of westerly wind swell. So, what does this mean to me (not even factoring wind direction, wind strength and tides)? Surfy waves but the need for more caution and adaptation. More closeouts and a lot more sectioning waves. Some long, clean waves will still come through but the westerly wind swell will be tampering with many of those waves we choose to catch. It also means increased awareness of the inside rocks because the normal predictability of the wave can't be relied upon.

Why is all this happening? My only guess can be the La Niña forces all about us. It is also affecting the winds in these forecasts with less calm morning winds and those mostly of the side-shore/on-shore type which is atypical even during the Green Season. As Windy is showing, the Pacific's Cat3 hurricane, Agatha, is going to cross over Mexico and reform gradually in the Gulf of Mexico before crossing central FL and gathering more strength, by then a tropical storm or hurricane.

Expert Analysis From Two Days Ago, Next Update Likely This Evening

LONGER RANGE: The SPAC is staying busy. Good looking lows moving away  New Zealand are due to send up another run of SW Southern Hemi, the first slightly stronger than the one mentioned above, that tops out during the back half of the upcoming week, June, 2nd-4th, then a notch or two smaller SW swell in the 6th-8th time frame. Extended progs are showing potential for a larger round of S swell moving in for the 11th-13th. We’ll keep you posted on the progress of these storm/swell systems as they continue to develop.

This Visualization from the Captain of Surf:

CRNW Forecast and Report of Mon, 2022-0314 11am

Looks like rideable surf throughout the period although the 2-3 ft days can be touch-and-go depending upon a number of factors. None of the primary swells appear to be in the blockage lines although some of the less influential secondary swells might be. Winds appear to remain offshore until afternoon through Wed, then late-morning to noon after that, in the first week of the forecast. The Outer Wash appears to be a low-probability event although it might be worth a venture if we see it breaking since these swells are not very long period or large.

Both boards are packed and upstairs ready for loading for the airport ride... which one shall it be? Stay tuned to the long-range forecast later this evening.

The forecast below is from 3 days ago (updates late-afternoon or early-evening).

Long Term Forecast Analysis Monday,  March 14th and Beyond)

SPAC Overview:

Fading SSW swell on Monday shows most size in the morning, for waist to chest high+ surf at good exposures. Slow drop follows that afternoon. Next up, another fun zone SSW swell moves in by Tuesday, then peaks through the middle of the upcoming week, setting up a new round of waist to shoulder high+ surf for many exposures on Wednesday and Thursday, 16th-17th, as best breaks hit head high. Similar strength shot of SSW swell rolls in for the weekend, 19th-20th, maintaining fun surf.

Fresh Southern Hemi  on the way for next week.

Further out, SPAC staying active. Progs showing a healthy looking storm tracking out from under New Zealand, and setting up the potential of another run of good, long-period SSW swell peaking on the 25th-26th.  We’ll keep you posted on the progress of that storm/swell system as it develops.

CRNW Forecast and Report of Tue, 2022-0308 am

 Looks like a good run of consistent surf during our period of interest. It appears that seasonal coastal winds are slipping in, morning offshores, midday onshores and evening offshores returning. Surfs Up!

Winds/weather: 

Costa Rica: Steady NE winds for the northernmost spots, persist all day. The rest of North CR sees light+/moderate offshores for the first part of the mornings, shifting to mainly moderate SSW-SW-W winds later morning through the afternoon, then looking to ease later afternoon/evening. 

Long Term Forecast Analysis (Thursday,  March 10th and Beyond)

SPAC Overview:

SPAC looks to send up more fun zone swell through mid month.

Further out, another fun zone SSW swell is scheduled to move in by next Tuesday, then peak through the middle of the upcoming week, setting up a new round of waist to shoulder high+ surf for many exposures on the 16th-17th. Similar strength shot of SSW swell potential for the following weekend, 19th-20th. We’ll keep you posted on the progress of these storm/swell systems as they develop.

CRNW Forecast and Report of Sat, 2022-0305 pm

Forecast is coming into shape and the shape is good. Look at the whopping forecast for Sunday, March 20, 2022, coming in 4.3 ft @20 sec. Holy Nelly! That will certainly change a little. But if it were to hold up we would be looking at 6-10 ft.

 

Some Granularity on 3/20/22

Whoops, SnL already changed their data downward, but still very good.

Here is some forecasting from a site David recently stumbled upon.

Winds/weather: 

Costa Rica: Steady NE winds for the northernmost spots, persist all day. The rest of North CR sees light+/moderate offshores for the first part of the mornings, shifting to mainly moderate SSW-SW-W winds later morning through the afternoon, then looking to ease later afternoon/evening. 

Long Term Forecast Analysis (Monday,  March 7th and Beyond)

SPAC Overview:

Overall a slightly slower version of the weekend Monday and early Tuesday.  A small but playful mix of left over S-SSW swell should kick next week off as the weekend swell eases.  Exposed breaks will continue to see knee to chest high surf, with lully set waves at better exposures and magnets.

We’ve got a couple new pulses expected to help bolster the surf again.  A mix of longer-period S-SSW swell moves in Tuesday and Wednesday.  This pulse could top out with around 3 feet of deepwater swell mid to late Wednesday the 9th holding size Thursday the 10th and lingering into Friday the 11th.  Wave heights are expected to build into the waist to chest high+ range, with standouts/deepwater spots seeing sets going potentially head high-overhead during the peak.

Further out, the models are showing a small to moderate system east of New Zealand kicking up some better angled SSW that could start arriving next weekend (the 12th-13th).  It does look like the storm activity in that area has been getting the downgrade over the past couple days, so although we’re seeing more activity, it’s hard to say if it will result in any notable swells much further out.  Likely we’re going to see wave heights move back up a notch, with more waist to chest high+ surf by the end of next weekend, with potential for reinforcing energy to help maintain at least waist to chest high+ surf at SSW exposures through mid month.  Stay tuned for updates.