Invest 91 Update of Fri, 9/12/08, pm

Invest 91, formerly Josephine, is now forecast to track along a more favorable area for GP'ers (see below) -- in other words giving us a 50-50 chance to score some slightly larger waves. Capt Blake is trying to help us out... keep him in your prayers :)



Blake posted earlier today on alt.surfing, a bit exaggerated on the tinyness side, but also with some decent advise about going fishing:

The last pre-GP forecast.

Saturday: dead flat.
Sunday: dead flat
Monday: south winds pick up substantially as a front nears. Possibly some sloppy surf around the right corner.
Tuesday: front pushes through. Not a lot of swell with it. But northerly winds start to kick up later in the day, and by Wednesday there will be northeast windswell
Wednesday: northeast windswell
Thursday-Friday: residual northeast windswell

The high generating the windswell is forecast to stabilize and generate waves for the remainder of the week. Best bet is to hide under a rock until Wednesday, then be ready for surf. However, it looks like a strikeout for swell from the tropics. I recommend bringing fishing poles for this weekend - when it is flat the fish are biting.

-PA

Updated Surf Forecast of Friday, 9/12/08

Winds are blowing onshore right now and it is sloppy but looks like some fun rides in places. Frisco looks small and the Avon Pier cam shows an incredibly flat scenario - must be from the summer because it is too windy for those small, glassy conditions. The cams at Rodanthe thru Kitty Hawk are all showing some wave action.

Winds go offshore overnight and we should still have some surf - need to find the peaks. That we can do!

The storm that used to be known as Josephine is still hanging around. It is not forecast to become a named storm again, but most models are forecasting this storm to track up the Florida and SE coast line. She may just give us some southerly swells.

Griz's original flight itinerary for Saturday, out of San Antonio, connecting in Houston and flying into Norfolk was scratched yesterday by Ike. He was rebooked for Sunday, but as of this morning is now rerouted on Sunday from San Antonio to Newark to Norfolk. He will be getting in late evening. Let's not forget to set aside a nice plate of leftovers.

GuidoPalooza's Blake Memorial Putt Putt Championship
In the event of flatness we shall, in memory of the former surfer, Blake of alt.surfing, institute the GuidoPalooza's Blake Memorial Putt Putt Championship. The Blakstah used to be a hell raising surfer in San Francisco that chastised everyone that didn't like within 5 miles of the beach. He now lives in Augusta, GA, and posts on the usenet golfing group.

A name suggestion that came my way is:
The Blakooksta ASPPGOTY award? (alt.surfing putt putt golfer of the year)

Have a good trip everyone!

Rod Rodgers  _\m/
http://rodndtube.com/

Please consider sponsoring me in the "Ride for a Cause" surfing contest,
on Oct 4th, in Virginia Beach. Many thanks!!!
http://www.marchforbabies.org/rodrodgers 

GP Forecast on 9/11/08

Current forecast is for 2-3 foot windswell. That is NOT totally flat! Later in the week things have a chance to improve... a chance

Invest 91

Wind: 25 MPH — Location: 21.8 66.4W — Movement: N

This area of disturbed weather has the potential for tropical development.
Ships Model forecast winds increasing to TS strength over the next few days.

Long Range GP Prospects as of 9/6/08, PM

Many of the models are calling for only one new storm over the next two weeks and a decreased tropical wave activity off of Africa & Cape Verde. The Navy's WW3 is showing some activity so let's hope some of these produce something for us. Josephine has been downgraded from a TS to a wave (pictured just NE of Puerto Rico). It is rather amazing, and disheartening, to see Ike still slamming Louisiana.

The "White Caps" Model

TS Forecast for Guido Week is Downgraded (as of 9/6/08)

Josephine

There's been little change to Tropical Storm Josephine today, which continues to struggle against the twin effects of wind shear and dry air. The models are split on whether Josephine will survive. If it does, the storm may be a threat to Bermuda in a week or so.

Elsewhere in the tropics

The GFS model has considerably toned down its forecasts of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa that develop. It now forecasts that just one new tropical storm will form over the next two weeks.

--  ____________________________________________________ Rod Rodgers  _\m/   http://rodndtube.com/  Please consider sponsoring me in the Ride for a Cause surfing contest, on Oct 4th, in Virginia Beach. Many thanks!!! http://www.marchforbabies.org/rodrodgers 

Ike's NOAA WWW3 Track Is a GP Producer

Under one scenario, Ike glides into and churns on all of S. Florida for a day or two and then goes off shore Atlantic. Pictured is the 180 hr track location.

GP2K8 TS Update from WeatherUnderground

*From Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog of 9/03/2008 (morning)

Josephine*
Tropical Storm Josphine
<http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200810_5day.html?MR=1>
is a long way out to sea, and it will be at least a week before it may
threaten any land areas.

*Elsewhere in the tropics*
The GFS model is forecasting that at least two or three more tropical
waves will move off the coast of Africa over the next ten days and
develop into tropical storms. The NOGAPS model is predicting possible
development near the Yucatan Peninsula 4-6 days from now, either in the
western Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche.

--
____________________________________________________
Rod Rodgers _\m/
http://rodndtube.com/

Please consider sponsoring me in the Ride for a Cause surfing contest, on Oct 4th, in Virginia Beach. Many thanks!!!
http://www.marchforbabies.org/rodrodgers

Conga Line of 4 on Sept 2, 2008

Reports are that a couple more strong waves are crossing Africa.

clipped from tropics.hamweather.com

TS Outlook on Sept 1, 2008

clipped from tropics.hamweather.com