OBX Forecast of Fri, 2013-0906pm

Looks to be mostly choppy on Saturday's arrival day but wind slackens during the afternoon and low tide is around 4pm. Worth a check and maybe a dip.

Forecast Recap:
Moderate NE windswell picked up during the day for the exposed spots in the Outer Banks and Virginia Beach. Much smaller surf was found south of Cape Hatteras.

Forecast Outlook:
2-3-4' mix of NE windswell and SE swell on tap for Saturday. Better spots see chest high ranged sets. Conditions are still bumpy with NE winds 8-13kts but onshore diminish and trend more E/ESE through the day. Cleaner/notch smaller surf for Frisco tomorrow morning. 

Best Bet: Later day as onshore flow begins to back off and swell generally gets more organized.
Worst Bet: Early as NE winds still problematic.

The windswell that is currently in the water will fade over the next couple of days, but a new small to fun sized swell moves in and holds into early/mid next week. New front brings new windswell early next week as well.

OBX Forecast of Thu, 2013-0905pm update

The daily long-range Surfline afternoon update is in and... moves the chest to shoulder swell up a couple/few days. No doubt this will keep changing as this is the East Coast and these are unpredictable tropical storms. If you can't make it down on Saturday just be prepared for the chorus, "Ya shoulda been hare yasterday."

OBX Forecast of Thu, 2013-0905am

Just moments ago the Cape Verde tropical wave appeared on my display... now we have a traditional conga line albeit with only one storm at the TD level or higher.

 

In keeping with GP/p tradition it appears we will have another year with tropical storm swell, our lady this year being TS Gabrielle. Just 12 hours ago she was forecast not to develop beyond being a tropical depression. The previous week she had been a mere low level "area of interest." Although we should not expect any epic overhead surf we shall have surf. Pray for good winds!

Two models forecast Gabrielle to maintain a northerly/NNW track which would be welcome for our swellage outcomes. The GFS model reminds me of a swell some 5 or 6 years ago where the storm did figure eights in the "gulf of South Carolina" for 3 days or so. Quite the swell generator for an entire week. One can only be hopeful.

In the meantime we will count our blessings that we won't be faced with this (wave cam pic of The Lighthouse this morning).

OBX Forecast of Tue, 2013-0903pm

Wave outlook improves... caveat emptor: it is still an East Coast long-range forecast!

In the news
 
The outlook for next Tuesday/Wednesday and the back half of next week is of lower confidence than normal as the latest computer model guidance suggests the tropical disturbance in the eastern Caribbean Sea and a passing frontal boundary will help provide an increase of windswell/swell for the region. We will take a conservative approach this far out and so we are expecting a modest increase in local windswell and SE swell mix for Tuesday/Wednesday and into the second half of next week. Stay tuned as we closely monitor this over the next several days.

TROPICS

We are watching an area of low pressure is located in the eastern Caribbean Sea this afternoon that is tracking slowly towards the WNW. We will continue to monitor this feature as it moves near the Greater Antilles over the coming days then tracks near the Turks and Caicos Islands late in the week/over the weekend.

Elsewhere, we are watching a tropical wave near the Yucatan Peninsula that is expected to move into the Bay of Campeche during the middle part of the week. This system will not impact our surf outlook.

Finally, a disorganized tropical wave has pushed off the West African coastline. We will have several days to track this system as it moves NW/WNW past the Cape Verde Islands.

OBX Forecast of Mon, 2013-0902am

The long-range Surfline forecast has not changed -- still showing 1-2 ft all week. On a real positive the past 5 days in the OBX has been showing some nice ridable surf somewhere between S. Nags Head and south Hatteras Island. For the hopeful, there is a 50-50 chance that surf will come our way compliments of a low pressure system of interest that is currently designated as 97L (see below).

The GFS Global run forecasts this position on Mon, Sept 9th.