CRNW Forecast of Fri, 2014-0228a

Who wants to forget our Mid-Atlantic area weather for Winter 2013/2014?  Here what is in store:
 
Today's Forecast: Sunny with a low of 70 and a high of 97. North east wind around 5 mph becoming a North wind around 5 mph. Today's rainfall amounts: 0 inches (0mm)
Tomorrow's Forecast: Clear with a low of 69 and a high of 95. East wind around 5 mph. Tomorrow's rainfall amounts: 0 inches (0mm) 

My trusty forecaster appears to still be over forecasting compared to others.

  Model Cycle: 2014 FEB 28 12Z         
  Time Zone: GMT - 6 hours             
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
2/28  12pm   1 -  3   SW 215    2.2    13.8    4 -  6  WNW 280

3/1   12pm   2 -  4   SW 212    2.6    13.3    7 - 10    N   0

3/2   12pm   2 -  5   SW 216    3.2    15.4    1 -  2    N   7

3/3   12pm   2 -  4   SW 218    2.7    13.8    2 -  4  WSW 248

3/4    6am   3 -  6  SSW 194    2.9    18.0    6 -  9  ENE  51
3/4   12pm   3 -  6  SSW 195    3.0    17.3    2 -  3  WSW 247
3/4    6pm   3 -  6  SSW 199    3.3    16.8    8 - 11  WSW 232

Arrival Day
3/5    6am   3 -  6   SW 213    3.5    15.7    5 -  7   NE  45
3/5   12pm   4 -  8   SW 223    3.7    18.9    2 -  4  WSW 252
3/5    6pm   4 -  8   SW 221    4.0    18.8    6 -  9  WSW 236

3/6    6am   4 -  8   SW 220    4.0    17.6    5 -  6   NE  31
3/6   12pm   4 -  8   SW 219    3.9    17.3    4 -  5    W 276
3/6    6pm   3 -  7   SW 220    4.0    16.5    7 - 10  WSW 244

3/7    6am   3 -  7   SW 219    3.8    15.9    5 -  6    N   1

Maybe the King of Surf Forecasting Friday night update will change things because their Wed forecast is still showing short period dinky swell for next Wed/Thu with surf 2-3 ft.

Swell Info's take is a little different.
Wed, Mar 5, 2014: 3-5 ft. Chest to shoulder high WNW long period swell. Clean in the morning with ENE winds 10-15mph. Semi glassy/semi bumpy conditions for the afternoon with the winds shifting NW less than 5mph.

Thu, Mar 6, 2014: 3-5 ft. Stomach to shoulder high mix of SW long period swell and WNW ground swell with occasional head sets. Clean in the morning with NE winds 10-15mph. Semi glassy/semi bumpy conditions for the afternoon with the winds shifting WNW less than 5mph.

 

 

CRNW Forecast of Thu, 2014-0227p

My favorite forecaster for CR and PR is now coming into focus -- it has a 7-day window (third forecast set in table format). Looks like we will have some surf, or not, depending upon which one tells the most accurate story. Who to believe? It is all weather and coming from far, far away.


 The forecast below is the most pessimistic of the lot. It doesn't show any overhead until Fri, March 14th, which is waaaay out there. March 6th 2 ft @ 18 sec seems like it should produce something larger than 2-3 ft surf.
 
 

The long range forecast service (effective Wednesday afternoon)

EXTENDED FORECAST (Sunday, March 2nd and beyond)

South Pacific Swell: The SW-SSW swell (215-200 deg) that begins to edge in on Saturday, courtesy of storm activity over the central SPAC several days ago, will continue to fill in on Sunday. This will set up waist-shoulder high range waves at well exposed areas on Sunday, as standouts see sets hit head high. This SW-SSW swell holds into Monday in the waist-head high range before easing next Tuesday/Wednesday.

A recent storm over the deep SE Pacific looks to set up a reinforcing pulse of SSW swell (200-190) that will begin to filter in next Tuesday, mixing with the old, fading SW-SSW swell mentioned above. The SSW swell continues to fill in on Wednesday and will offer surf in the waist-head high range. SSW swell edges down over the second half of next week.

The next storm system, which pushed out from under New Zealand earlier this week, looks to provide another pulse of SW-SSW swell (220-210) that will show during the second half of next week and continue into the following weekend, potentially offering stronger surf than the swells outlined above.









  Model Cycle: 2014 FEB 27 06Z         
  Time Zone: GMT - 7 hours             
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
3/1   11am   2 -  4   SW 212    2.7    13.3    7 -  9  NNE  17
3/1    5pm   3 -  6   SW 220    3.0    16.6    6 -  8  NNE  18

3/2   11am   3 -  6   SW 216    3.4    15.4    6 -  9   NE  32
3/2    5pm   3 -  6   SW 217    3.5    14.7    5 -  6  NNE  27

3/3   11am   2 -  4   SW 218    2.9    13.8    0 -  0  SSW 200
3/3    5pm   2 -  4   SW 220    2.8    13.6    7 - 10   SW 224

3/4   11am   2 -  5  SSW 194    2.9    17.3    3 -  5   NW 317
3/4    5pm   3 -  6  SSW 197    3.1    16.7    4 -  6    W 265
 
WED Arrival day
3/5   11am   4 -  8   SW 222    3.7    18.9    5 -  7  NNE  14
3/5    5pm   4 -  9   SW 220    4.1    18.8    3 -  4   NE  44
3/5   11pm   4 -  8   SW 222    4.2    17.7   11 - 15  ENE  54