Lots of westerly influence in the dominant swell patterns during our first 6 days on-station. No shadowing effects. Mon-Thu look promising with 4 ft. swell and 16-18 sec. periods (two different swells). All indications are that some nice surf is rolling in today in the waist to head high range.
Tidal Note: On Sat, March 5, the tidal spread will be 5.4 ft. bracketed around the afternoon low. By Thu, March 10, the tidal spread will be 11.6 ft. (-1.3/10.3/-1.4, high at 5p).
Model Cycle: 2016 MAR 03 12Z
Time Zone: GMT - 6 hours
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SURF SURF DIR SEAS PERIOD WIND WND/DIR
(ft) (deg) (ft) (sec) (kts) (deg)
------- -------- ----- ------ ------- -------
3/3 6am 4 - 9 WSW 234 5.0 15.3 16 - 21 ENE 56 THU
3/3 12pm 3 - 7 SW 223 4.5 14.8 7 - 10 NNE 17
3/3 6pm 3 - 6 SW 228 3.9 14.6 6 - 8 ESE 117
3/4 6am 3 - 6 SW 228 3.9 14.7 12 - 16 ENE 51 FRI
3/4 12pm 3 - 6 SW 213 3.8 15.1 5 - 7 WNW 281
3/4 6pm 3 - 6 SW 218 3.8 14.2 9 - 12 S 179
Arrival Day/Low Tide Afternoon :(
3/5 6am 3 - 6 SW 219 3.8 14.1 11 - 15 NE 39 SAT 3/5 12pm 3 - 6 SW 218 3.9 13.7 4 - 6 SW 223 3/5 6pm 3 - 7 SW 219 3.8 16.6 7 - 10 S 170 3/6 6am 3 - 6 SW 219 3.5 15.7 8 - 12 NE 33 SUN 3/6 12pm 3 - 6 SW 219 3.7 15.4 7 - 10 W 273 3/6 6pm 3 - 7 SW 219 4.0 15.2 7 - 9 SSW 195 3/7 6am 4 - 8 SW 218 4.1 16.6 8 - 11 NE 43 MON 3/7 12pm 4 - 8 SW 219 4.2 16.2 7 - 10 WSW 251 3/7 6pm 3 - 7 SW 217 4.3 15.4 3 - 4 SW 211 3/8 6am 3 - 7 SW 218 4.2 14.8 8 - 11 NNE 28 TUE 3/8 12pm 4 - 8 WSW 250 4.2 16.4 7 - 10 W 272 3/8 6pm 4 - 8 WSW 243 4.2 16.3 4 - 5 SSW 204 3/9 6am 3 - 7 WSW 246 4.0 15.3 6 - 9 NNE 28 WED 3/9 12pm 3 - 7 WSW 238 4.1 15.3 9 - 12 W 277 3/9 6pm 4 - 9 SW 221 4.1 18.6 4 - 5 WSW 246 3/10 12am 4 - 8 SW 220 4.1 17.8 2 - 3 NE 40 THU 3/10 6am 4 - 8 SW 220 4.1 17.6 8 - 10 NE 44
Effective Wednesday evening (March 2, 2016)
SHORT TERM FORECAST (through Sunday, March 6th)
Highlights: NW swell eases into the second half of the week as fun zone Southern Hemi moves in. South
Pacific Swell: Old SSW swell fades going into the second half of the week as fresh SW (220-210) swell from storm activity moving away from New Zealand moves in. Thursday sees waist-shoulder high waves at the better spots, with a few plus sets to head high at standouts. That surf holds into Saturday then gradually eases Sunday as a new SSW swell starts to show.
North Pacific Swell: NW swell (300-320) swell has passed its peak now and eases by the second half of the week. Thursday is still good for head+ waves at the best exposures, (most size in North CR). That surf then fades on Friday for waist-shoulder high waves at those well exposed breaks, plus sets at standouts. The trend towards smaller size continues through Saturday. Note, other areas see a smaller share of this NW swell for smaller surf. Note also that with the SSW swell running, a few of the beachbreaks open to both directions will see some bowled up peaks.
Wind/Weather: Diurnal wind pattern for most Costa Rica; light to locally moderate offshore wind in the early to mid mornings (depending on location; strongest for Northern C.R. where it will be quite breezy, before a light to moderate onshore sea-breeze gradually develops over the late morning/afternoons (a little stronger for some areas, lighter for others). Northernmost C.R. will see steady offshore winds persist in the afternoons.
EXTENDED FORECAST (Monday, March 7th, and beyond)
Highlights: More NW swell and Southern Hemi swell on the way for next week.
South Pacific Swell: Good run of SW to SSW swell steadily rising through next Monday with head high to overhead surf at well exposed breaks. Those waves hold on Tuesday then ease a little by midweek. Similar size to slightly lager SSW Southern Hemi rolls in next Thursday/Friday, 10th-11th, maintaining head+ surf and better sets. Those waves ease over the following weekend. Potential for a better SSW Southern Hemi for the 17th-19th. We'll keep you posted on the progress of that one.
North Pacific Swell: New, long-period NW (300-310) swell starts to move in next Monday, then peaks Tuesday/Wednesday, 8th-9th,with head high+ high waves and better sets at best exposures, (North CR). Other areas see a smaller share of the NW swell then. Similar size new NW swell expected to move in next Friday/Saturday, 11th-12th. We'll keep you posted on that storm/swell system as it develops.
(Tuesday) 3.1.16: Bigger mix of swell headed towards the region over the weekend
Central America and Mainland Mexico Short-Range Surf Forecast
Recent activity in the South Pacific has set up our next swell maker, and it looks like it could be a pretty solid one. The a couple of storms originally starting near New Zealand over the weekend tracked along the lower latitudes over the past few days. The second one (shown above on the right) eventually caught up to the first as they worked their way closer to the region. So an initial pulse is due to arrive late Friday/Saturday with 17 to 18 second periods. It will top out around 2-3 feet on Sunday as the second more potent swell starts to arrive with 18 to 19 second periods. The second pulse will build to a peak around 4 to 5 feet with 14 to 15 second periods Monday/Tuesday. In ADDITION… a long-period NW (300+) swell will be working its way down the coast through the weekend as well.
At that point the combination of the two southern hemi swells could mean deepwater heights closer to 6 to 8 feet, and an additional 3-4 feet of deepwater swell from the NW as combo energy should mean some solid surf through the start of next week. As of right now, peak days look like they will be Monday and Tuesday for the swell mix. With standout SSW-SW exposures seeing chest high to overhead+ surf, maybe the occasional set wave going well overhead. Peak days of the WNW are expected to be Sunday and Monday for Mainland Mexico, with Central America following on Tuesday. Wave heights will range in size quite a bit for that one, with standouts farther north seeing overhead to double overhead surf, and closer to waist to head high+ for standouts in Central America.
Long-Range Surf forecast Central America and Mainland Mexico
North Pacific Swell Forecast
The long-range models are showing another storm dropping in latitude northwest of Hawaii over the upcoming weekend.
It’s nowhere near as strong as its predecessor, but it should still send a small pulse of WNW-NW (295-310) for the middle/end of next week.
South Pacific Swell Forecast
If you recall in the first WAM above there is a large system brewing off the coast of New Zealand right now, that is likely to generate pulse of SW (210-220) swell for mid to late next week.
Although the storm rapidly intensifies around the dateline over the next few hours, its quite far away from the region (~6500 miles). The system unfortunately falls apart as it starts to move east too. The fetch sees winds die down to 20-30 knots vs the 40-50 knot winds it experienced at its peak. So the storm weakens and then the open ocean swell is expected to lose a lot of energy while it traverses the 6500 miles to Central America and Mainland Mex. Either way watching for a small to moderate pulse of SW (210-220) to arrive around the 9th/10th of March.
Beyond that, the storm track weakens and goes mostly zonal. A couple of systems emerging out from under New Zealand early next week, could end up developing into swell makers, sending more SSW-SW (200-220) towards the region for around the 16th/17th, but its still too early to call the details there. Stay tuned.
Forecast will be updated Friday, March 4, 2015.
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