Friday, June 3, 2016

CRNW Surf Forecast and Reports of 2016-0603 (Fri)

Late morning surf... report to follow later.

A near-term pick-up in the wave size forecast!! Not losing anything on Saturday for Beth's airport drop-off (and breakfast at the German Bakery!). Need a day off anyway with my ailing left elbow in addition to rest of the body needing some rest. Sunday and Monday have promise... wind gods please send some offshores, ha ah.

Report: One of our better days. Surf was smaller, in the 3-5 ft range the ones we were riding, The Wash take off shoulder/curl was weaker so you had to be deep into the Wash to catch one, but typical Wash waves, long and those nice inside sections. I actually scored a rare tube midway through the ride :) Beeg smile! Tim had another good day and David learned that it was too small and weak for the Big Wave Mat to work well.

  Model Cycle: 2016 JUN 03 06Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 6 hours              
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
6/3    6am   3 -  6   SW 211    3.9    13.5    6 -  8   SE 138 FRI
6/3   12pm   3 -  6   SW 211    3.8    13.3    6 -  9    S 179
6/3    6pm   2 -  5   SW 213    3.7    12.9    6 -  9  SSW 192
 
6/4    6am   2 -  5  SSW 209    3.4    12.5    7 - 10    S 175 SAT
6/4   12pm   2 -  4   SW 210    3.4    12.3   10 - 14    S 171
6/4    6pm   2 -  5   SW 210    3.5    12.0   11 - 15    S 171
 
6/5    6am   3 -  6   SW 214    3.9    14.6    7 - 10  SSE 164 SUN
6/5   12pm   3 -  7   SW 215    4.3    14.4    8 - 11    S 186
6/5    6pm   3 -  7   SW 217    4.3    14.2    6 -  8  WSW 234
 
6/6    6am   3 -  6   SW 216    4.0    13.4    3 -  5  SSW 205 MON
6/6   12pm   3 -  6   SW 217    3.8    13.4    6 -  8   SW 212
6/6    6pm   2 -  5   SW 218    3.7    13.3    6 -  9    W 263
 
6/7    6am   2 -  5   SW 218    3.9    12.6    5 -  6  WNW 305 TUE
6/7   12pm   2 -  5   SW 218    4.0    12.5    8 - 11  WNW 293
6/7    6pm   1 -  3    W 260    4.2     7.3   11 - 15  WNW 286
 
6/8    6am   1 -  3  WSW 255    4.8     6.8    8 - 11  WNW 301 WED
6/8   12pm   1 -  3  WSW 256    4.7     6.7   10 - 13    W 260
6/8    6pm   2 -  4  WSW 252    5.6     6.5   14 - 19    W 260
 
6/9    6am   2 -  4  WSW 247    5.7     6.6   13 - 17  WSW 245 THU
6/9   12pm   2 -  4  WSW 247    6.1     6.8   10 - 13  WSW 232
6/9    6pm   2 -  4  WSW 258    5.2     6.9    1 -  2  WSW 257
 
6/10  12am   1 -  3    W 264    4.7     7.0    3 -  4  ENE  71 FRI
 


Effective Friday evening
SHORT TERM FORECAST (through TUESDAY, June 7th)  
Highlights: Modest SSW swell keeps things rideable.   
 

South Pacific Swell: Old SSW swell (210-200) is fading through this weekend with knee-waist-chest high waves becoming the norm, although Saturday will still see some lingering shoulder high sets at standouts.

Minor leftovers from that swell are joined by a small, reinforcing SSW swell (210-195 over Monday/Tuesday, keeping knee-waist-chest high surf going at best spots.

Wind/Weather: Offshore disturbances are going to set up an atypical wind patter for the region through the next few days. Mornings will start off with light to light+ S-SE winds which will trend more S-SW to WSW at light/moderate levels each afternoon. We may see a slightly better, more diurnal, pattern take over the second of next week.

Most of the region will see partly to mostly cloudy skies each day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely and keep in mind that passing or nearby showers and thunderstorms can temporarily affect/change local wind conditions.    

EXTENDED FORECAST (WEDNESDAY, June 8th, and beyond)   
Highlights: Nice run of Southern hemi swell to start back up around the 11th, continuing through mid-month.

South Pacific Swell: The 8th-10th will be relatively slow overall, with just that modest pulse of SSW swell (210-195) keeping things rideable, in the 3-4' range at top spots.

However, renewed storm activity in the SW Pacific now has a series of storms moving out from under New Zealand the next several days.

That puts building SW-SSW swell (220-200) for the 11th-12th with potential for head high-overhead+ surf by the afternoon on the Sunday the 12th. A larger, reinforcing pulse looks to move in and peak the 13th-16th with potential for pretty solid/large surf during that time. Slow fading trend due the 17th-18th but then we could see a reinforcing S-SSW swell show up around the 19th-20th. 

So, lots going on in the SPAC right now and our confidence on these swells is increasing but we'll have more details early next week after we can gather a little more real-time data on the storms.

 

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