In the run-up, I see some large surf but also some bad winds (although the local wind info tends to be a weak link in the forecast package). The swells have good periodicity but a surprising amount of west in them for this time of year.
Model Cycle: 2019 MAY 24 06Z
Time Zone: GMT - 7 hours
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SURF SURF DIR SEAS PERIOD WIND WND/DIR
(ft) (deg) (ft) (sec) (kts) (deg)
------- -------- ----- ------ ------- -------
5/24 11am 4 - 8 SW 212 5.0 14.5 7 - 10 SSE 166
5/25 11am 6 - 12 SW 224 5.8 17.5 10 - 14 SSE 169
5/26 11am 6 - 13 SW 222 7.4 15.4 8 - 11 SSE 150
5/27 11am 5 - 11 SW 221 6.6 14.1 10 - 14 NW 321
5/27 5pm 4 - 9 SW 221 5.6 14.1 7 - 9 NNW 341
5/28 5am 6 - 12 SW 228 5.5 18.7 5 - 7 ESE 114
5/28 11am 6 - 12 SW 227 5.9 18.2 3 - 4 S 189
5/28 5pm 6 - 13 SW 227 6.3 17.8 4 - 5 S 187
5/29 5am 8 - 16 SW 226 8.1 17.2 7 - 9 SSE 168
5/29 11am 8 - 17 SW 224 9.0 16.6 11 - 15 SSW 199
5/29 5pm 9 - 19 SW 224 9.8 16.5 17 - 23 WSW 231
5/30 5am 8 - 17 SW 223 9.1 15.8 16 - 22 SSW 202
5/30 11am 9 - 19 SW 222 10.4 15.6 15 - 20 SSW 207
5/30 5pm 9 - 19 SW 222 10.2 15.5 12 - 16 SSE 166
Wednesday at 3:24pm CST
Next 24 Hrs
S/SW wind protected spots, monitoring the tropics
Not watching the tropics
Next 7 days
- Best Surf Next 7 Days: May need to wait till next week for favorable winds to return
- Messy conditions with onshore winds due to tropical low pressure nearby
- Plenty of Southern Hemi energy through the end of the month
This table informs on the mix of swell conditions to be expected... and some of the result challenges or joy points!
Long Term Forecast Analysis (Saturday May 25th and Beyond)
South Pacific: A new and more 'westerly' SW/SSW swell (220-210) to build in this weekend and peak Monday. The LOLA model is looking a hair generous on this one still, but expect fun size chest-shoulder high+ surf Monday. The more westerly exposed breaks in Nica and El Sal go 1-2'+ overhead on sets. This swell then gradually drops off into mid next week.
LOLA wave heights for the South Pacific depict plenty of energy headed towards the Central Americas over the next week or so.
Hot on that swells heels will be a stronger shot of SW/SSW swell (230-210). The storm that is producing this swell is currently strengthening in the SW Pacific, and seems to be mildly outperforming guidance at the moment with satellite confirmed swells outside the peak generation zone of 26-28', a large swath of 45kt+ winds within this storm aimed well at the Central American coast. This swell is projected to begin filling in Tuesday with head high to overhead surf, pushing 2-3+ overhead surf into the region by next Wednesday afternoon.
NOTE - on both the above mentioned swells, Costa Rica will once again see the majority of shadowing from the Galapagos. So you can expect slightly smaller and less consistent surf for that region.
Farther out, longer range models/charts show plenty of storm activity continuing in the S PAC. This will likely deliver more medium to potentially solid SW/SSW swell to Central America into early June. Stay tuned.
