CRNW Forecast of 2019-0522, Wed am

Somebody added Wheaties or Spinach to the forecasting model this round?

  Model Cycle: 2019 MAY 22 06Z         
  Time Zone: GMT - 6 hours             
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             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
5/22  12pm   7 - 14  SSW 209    6.8    17.7   13 - 17    S 183
5/23  12pm   4 -  9   SW 212    5.3    15.6    5 -  7    S 187
5/24  12pm   4 -  9   SW 211    5.2    14.5    7 -  9   SE 143
5/25  12pm   5 - 11   SW 220    5.6    17.5    8 - 11    S 179
5/26  12pm   5 - 11   SW 221    6.2    15.4   15 - 20  ESE 114
5/27  12pm   4 -  9   SW 220    5.9    14.1    6 -  8  NNE  29
5/28  12pm   7 - 15   SW 223    7.0    18.1   12 - 16  WSW 253

5/28   6pm   8 - 17   SW 223    8.0    17.8   12 - 17  WSW 239
5/29  12am   8 - 17   SW 222    8.3    17.4   10 - 13   SW 212

Seasonal Outlook for Central America/Southern Mexico

(UPDATED: 5/16 -- NEXT UPDATE: 5/23) The first half of May has been a welcome kick start to the Southern Hemisphere season, as the first shot of proper SPAC swell has come and gone. Fortunately, the SPAC looks to keep kicking through the end of the Month, but can we expect to see more of this heading into summer, or has all the juice been spent on the end of Spring?
Surf Impacts:

• Average surf heights for May up a notch from the seasonal norm
• Climatologically, average surf heights are at their peak in May/June
• Increasingly likely that May will see above average surf heights

South Pacific: The solid run of Southern Hemi swell that recently impacted the region was a great boost for what is increasingly likely to be an above average month of May with respect to average surf heights. Most spots through the region were seeing above average surf as we turned the page into the back half of the month, and fortunately there is more on the way. Activity in the Southeast Pacific is driving a more southerly shot of swell that is due late this weekend and into next week which will have most spots once again seeing above average surf. For a bit of context Central America and Southern Mexico are mostly in the slightly overhead zone on average for the months of May and June.

Moving into the last ten days or so of the month month models are indicating that Southern Hemi activity will be relegated to the Southwest Pacific, with multiple pulses of SW swell heading to the region that really look to solidify an above average May with surf expected to exceed the seasonal norm before we turn the page into June.

Looking further out, the reputable climate models are still indicating a bit of a slow down in the SPAC due to high pressure setting up to the South of French Polynesia to close out the month. This increases confidence that we will see a slower start to Summer, and looking further into June, longer range climate models are indicating a prolonged period of slower activity with larger scale high pressure setting up across the South Pacific.

The silver lining there is that, historically speaking, June is still peak Southern Hemi swell season, so even a slight slow down and trend towards less than seasonal activity is still likely to see continued fun-zone surf around chest-head high. For those of you looking to track down more solid surf than that, take advantage of the rest of May while you still can.