CRNW Forecast of 2019-0521, Tues Noon Initial Forecast Posting

This forecast is outside our initial session date, but just a taster....

  Model Cycle: 2019 MAY 21 12Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 6 hours              
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             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------

5/21  12pm   4 -  9  SSW 197    5.5    14.5   11 - 15  SSE 150
5/22  12pm   6 - 13  SSW 209    6.5    17.7    8 - 11  SSE 168
5/23  12pm   4 -  9   SW 212    5.3    15.6    5 -  7  SSE 164
5/24  12pm   4 -  9   SW 211    5.3    14.5    5 -  8   SE 148
5/25  12pm   5 - 10   SW 220    5.2    17.5    6 -  8    S 186
5/26  12pm   5 - 10   SW 221    5.8    15.4    7 -  9  ESE 127
5/27  12pm   6 - 12   SW 220    7.6    14.1    8 - 11  ESE 111
5/28   6am   6 - 12  WSW 258   11.5     8.8   15 - 20  WSW 237

Next 24 Hrs

Mornings have the most favorable winds. Largest Tuesday.

Afternoon with onshore flow for many areas.

Next 7 days

• Best Surf Next 7 Days: Morning hours offer best conditions
• Light diurnal wind pattern, onshore flow in afternoons
• More Southern Hemi pulses expected before the end of the month

 

 

Central America Forecast: Nice Size S Hemi Swells All Week

The Bottom Line

• Trend: Overlapping SSW/SW swells, basically holding surf all week.
• Watch Out For: Extreme tide swinds and afternoon onshore winds for most.
• Other Tidbits: SPAC still kicking with a few Southern Hemi pulses due before the end of the month.
• Beginners: Breaks heavily sheltered from SSW swell.

Tuesday, May 21st: 5-7’+ surf as SSW swell (210-200) holds early then fades. Strongest in the morning with head high to 2-3' overhead surf showing at most well exposed breaks along with some plus sets for select focal poing. Costa Rica and Nicaragua will see shadowing from this swell direction and have surf come in a notch smaller as a result. Overall size is down across the board in the afternoon.

Wednesday, May 22nd: 4-7’+ surf with overlapping SSW swells. Building long period SSW swell (220-210) takes over as the primary swell source as old SSW swell fades. This will maintain chest high to slightly overhead surf at most spots while occasional sets push up to a couple/few feet overhead at standout breaks. Again, Costa Rica will see shadowing from this swell direction and have surf come in a notch smaller as a result.

Winds/weather: Fairly typical wind pattern for most through this week, Southern Nicaragua and Northern Costa Rica have some exceptions. We are seeing more precipitation on the charts for the region, so expect some enhanced t-storm activity and rainfall along the coast over the next few days. Also, keep in mind that local winds/conditions can shift quickly with these flare ups.


Costa Rica: Light/variable to light offshore flow each morning followed by a light+ to locally moderate onshore flow midday into each afternoon for Southern and Central Costa Rica. Northern Costa Rica sees a pattern similar to Southern Nicaragua, with the exception of the Nicoya Peninsula seeing southerly winds develop in the afternoons.

Long Term Forecast Analysis (Thursday May 23rd and Beyond)
South Pacific: The SSW swell that filled in Wednesday will peak and hold Thursday/Friday. This storm was a little far away and did not take the most ideal track, so wave heights won't be as large as what was seen early in the week. Still, expect overhead to well overhead sets at best breaks during that time. Swell is then fading through the weekend.

Current state of the SPAC. Swells lining up for late this weekend and next week.
However, will see a new and more 'westerly' SW/SSW swell (220-210) build in this weekend and peak Monday. LOLA model looks to be over-cooking this one just a touch, but we are still expecting fun size chest-shoulder high+ surf Sunday and Monday. The more westerly exposed breaks in Nica and El Sal go 1-2'+ overhead on sets. This swell then gradually drops off into mid next week.

Right on that swells heels is what appears to be a stronger shot of SW/SSW swell (230-210) that's just starting to pull together in the central SPAC now. This fetch still expected to strengthen a bit, but early indications are for head+ to well overhead surf and potentially double overhead+ waves top spots for the 29th-31st (initially building on the 28th). We'll get a little more data on this one the next couple days, so check back for more details in Wednesday's update.

NOTE - on both the above mentioned swells, Costa Rica will once again see the majority of shadowing from the Galapagos. So you can expect slightly smaller and less consistent surf for that region.

Beyond that, longer range models/charts show more storm activity moving through roughly the same area of ocean late this week and early next week. This would deliver more medium to potentially solid SW/SSW swell to Central America for early June. Stay tuned.