CRNW Forecast and Report of Sat, 2022-0129 am

More cruising and comparing of the long-range forecasts looking for little morsels of hope in the larger and longer periodicities. We are still in the marginal zone but probably something in the Wash. Generally a more favorable forecast in the written summary below.

The Bottom Line

• Swell Trend:  Overlapping SSW swell peaks through the weekend, as NW swell adds some combo energy to top exposures 
• Watch Out For: High tides midday slow the smaller surf
• Other Tidbits: Breezy Papagayo winds over the weekend due to a cold system moving through the US Northeast late Friday

Sunday, January 30th: 2-4′ surf from SSW swell mix starts to ease, NW energy backs off as well.

Consistency and size are going to be begin backing off for the swell mix.  SSW energy show a slower exit though, and wave heights are likely to continue running knee to chest high for standouts when the tide is working.  Best combo breaks may continue to see a few unexpected peaks early on. High tide slows most spots midday-early afternoon.  Breezy NE winds continue for areas typically affected by the Papagayo winds (North CR through Nicaragua).

Breezy NE winds will effect the area between the Nicoya Peninsula and El Salvador. 

Winds/weather: 

Costa Rica: Breezy NE wind event due Saturday and Sunday due to a cold frontal system moving through the US East Coast Friday/Saturday.  Winds could be blowing 10-20 kt, easing Monday, but with lingering offshores especially for the northernmost spots.  Central and southern CR will mostly see a continued diurnal wind pattern with light/variable to very light offshore flow in the early mornings trending to light+ onshores in the afternoons.

Long Term Forecast Analysis (Monday, January 31st and Beyond)

SPAC Overview:

SSW swell eases into next week, as a reinforcing pulse of SW energy starts to fill in late Sunday into Monday.  This longer-period pulse looks like its going to favor spots with a little more westerly exposure due to the wide angle (210-220).  For most exposed breaks we’re looking at  thigh to waist high+ surf during the peak Tuesday-Wednesday. Standouts could see a few bigger stomach to chest high+ sets, although I wouldn’t expect much consistency with this one. Size lingers through the second half of the week, then a new, slightly larger SSW-SW swell is scheduled to roll in next weekend, 5th-6th.

The storm producing next weekend’s swell is currently south of French Polynesia generating measured seas at around 20-25 feet.  It’s not super strong, but some of the fetch is at least pointed in the right direction, and could result in a 2+ feet of deepwater swell during the peak.  That means surf potentially running waist to head high at standouts during the peak.  It’s still a little too early to call with confidence, but we’ll have updates for you as the time approaches.

Further out, there is potential for another modest scale SSW swell arriving mid the following week (2/8-2/9). The 73 hour models are pretty optimistic on this one at the moment, with the storm producing wave heights in the 25-30 foot range with a somewhat-favorable fetch.  Then the storm regroups for a better northward push of broader (albeit weaker) fetch SSW of the Pitcairn Islands about 156 hours out.  So it could be a little 1-2 punch of energy, with the combined peak around the 1oth/11th of February.  We’ll keep you posted on the progress of that storm/swell system as it develops.

NPAC Overview:

The NPAC storm track has shifted back to higher latitudes lately, with not much swell being aimed at Central America. At this point, only small scale background energy from the North Pacific is expected next week and beyond. We’ll let you know of any changes in that outlook.

StormSurf Big Picture Forecast

And, at http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/current.shtml, in a La Niña/El Niño discussion, this is guardedly good news, 

"...Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out."

CRNW Forecast and Report of Thu, 2022-0127 am

Just meandering and looking for the transition from NW to SW swells and how the El Niño may be affecting things. The chart below shows some increased southerly influence but it is mostly of the small end.

The Bottom Line

• Swell Trend:  SSW swell fades into the back half of the week, as NW swell moves into exposures 
• Watch Out For: High tides mid mornings slow the smaller surf
• Other Tidbits: Some more potential in the SPAC, NPAC slowing down

Thursday, January 27th: 2-3′ waves off  easing SSW swell, new NW swell shows at winter breaks.
Fading SSW swell and shorter-period  S swell mix, for thigh-waist high surf at good exposures, as top breaks see some better sets early. New NW swell starts to move into best wintertime spots, with similar size waves. Mind the mid AM high tide, which bogs down the surf at most areas. 

Friday, January 28th: 2-3′ surf from SSW swell mix, more NW swell for top exposures.
For most spots it’s a continue mix of modest scale SSW swell with thigh-waist high waves. Standout winter breaks see some better sets from a peaking NW swell. Best combo breaks pull in some peaks. Mid AM high tide slows most spots. 

Winds

Costa Rica: Morning offshore winds out of the NE for North CR, with a light+ to periodically more sea breeze in the afternoons for most spots, strongest on Friday. Northernmost spots stay offshore all day. Central and southern CR will see a diurnal wind pattern with light/variable to very light offshore flow in the early mornings trending to light+ onshores in the afternoons. [Rod Note: This is def atypical for this time of year when the offshores should be dominant all day.]

Long Term Forecast Analysis (Saturday, January 29th and Beyond)

SPAC Overview:

Old SSW swell winds down going into the weekend, as a reinforcing SSW pulse moves in, for mainly thigh to waist high surf Saturday. Sunday holds, with the SSW pulse easing and some new, long-period SW swell slowly creeping up. The modest scale swell peaks/holds for the first part of next week, 31st-2nd, with waist-stomach high surf at many exposed spots and shoulder high+ waves at standouts. Those waves taper off by the second half of the upcoming week, then  a new, similar size SW swell is scheduled to roll in by the following weekend, 5th-6th, with locally fun zone surf.

Further out, there is potential for another modest scale SSW swell in the 10th-12th time frame. So nothing much, but still some waves.  We’ll keep you posted on the progress of those storm/swell systems as they develop.

NPAC Overview:

The North Pacific has had storms tracking through lower latitudes and reaching the swell window for best exposed areas of Central America. An older NW swells will be easing going into the weekend, while a bit steeper-angled/more selective NW swell joins in. That mix is good for waist high+ waves at the better winter breaks on Saturday, as standouts hit shoulder high. Surf tapers off on Sunday, then the trend towards smaller size continues into next week.

The NPAC storm track has shifted back to higher latitudes lately, with not much swell being aimed at Central America. At this point, only small scale NW pulses, mainly staying under waist high, are scheduled through the first third of next month. We’ll let you know of any changes in that outlook.

 

PRNW Forecast of 2022-0107pm (Fri)

 Be selective but not TOO selective. Might have to make some trips to the north coast this time around.

PRNW Forecast of 2022-0105am (Wed)

Surf is running small today--barely breaking at 1st Rock at Maria's Point. 

Surf picks up late in the day with tomorrow providing plus sets, but will be short lived.

Mostly forecast to be breaking well enough to ride beginning on my second full-day on the Island. By Thur, Jan 13th, I will have my hands full.

PRNW Forecast of 2022-0103am (Monday)

Forecast shows swell in the water, mostly on the small size. Maybe that will keep my area crowd size down a bit.

Long Term Forecast Analysis (Thursday, January 6th and Beyond)

The storm we have been watching this past week previously set up shop to the S of Iceland with satellite observed winds to storm force in the island’s window. This adds in even more long period NNE swell for next week.

We are also watching a storm moving off the US East Coast early this week and another poorly shaped, weak low over the Eastern Atlantic this weekend/early next week. The US East Coast low moves pretty quick off to the NE setting up between Iceland/Greenland by the middle of next week. We’ll see an initial modest pulse of NNW shifting NNE swell off this mixing in with the above mentioned long period NNE swell. This combo swell should offer up consistent surf and Wed/Thur are definitely looking like good days to target some surf. Right now the East ATL low looks like a pretty weak system but winds between this and a developing Azores ridge may be good enough to mix in some lower period NNE/NE swell longer term, so we’ll watch for that.

As mentioned above another small but long period pulse fills in late Wednesday and is well established for Thursday. This is nothing XL and very approachable but the swell/surf should have some power behind it with the longer periods. Most size is at N coast spots but the longer swell periods/direction will allow plenty of surf to get into Rincon as well – nothing huge but likely very rippable surf.

Once the US East Coast storm sets up midweek between Greenland/Iceland, we may see a small fetch but containing strong winds in the Island’s window, so we’ll watch the ultra longer term for some long period swell – we wouldn’t see anything off this until next weekend (8th-9th) time frame. Right now the East ATL low looks like a pretty weak system but may be good enough to mix in some lower period NNE/NE swell longer term, so we’ll watch for that.