More cruising and comparing of the long-range forecasts looking for little morsels of hope in the larger and longer periodicities. We are still in the marginal zone but probably something in the Wash. Generally a more favorable forecast in the written summary below.
The Bottom Line
- Swell Trend: Overlapping SSW swell peaks through the weekend, as NW swell adds some combo energy to top exposures
- Watch Out For: High tides midday slow the smaller surf
- Other Tidbits: Breezy Papagayo winds over the weekend due to a cold system moving through the US Northeast late Friday
Sunday, January 30th: 2-4′ surf from SSW swell mix starts to ease, NW energy backs off as well.
Consistency and size are going to be begin backing off for the swell mix. SSW energy show a slower exit though, and wave heights are likely to continue running knee to chest high for standouts when the tide is working. Best combo breaks may continue to see a few unexpected peaks early on. High tide slows most spots midday-early afternoon. Breezy NE winds continue for areas typically affected by the Papagayo winds (North CR through Nicaragua).
Breezy NE winds will effect the area between the Nicoya Peninsula and El Salvador.
Winds/weather:
Costa Rica: Breezy NE wind event due Saturday and Sunday due to a cold frontal system moving through the US East Coast Friday/Saturday. Winds could be blowing 10-20 kt, easing Monday, but with lingering offshores especially for the northernmost spots. Central and southern CR will mostly see a continued diurnal wind pattern with light/variable to very light offshore flow in the early mornings trending to light+ onshores in the afternoons.
Long Term Forecast Analysis (Monday, January 31st and Beyond)
SPAC Overview:
SSW swell eases into next week, as a reinforcing pulse of SW energy starts to fill in late Sunday into Monday. This longer-period pulse looks like its going to favor spots with a little more westerly exposure due to the wide angle (210-220). For most exposed breaks we’re looking at thigh to waist high+ surf during the peak Tuesday-Wednesday. Standouts could see a few bigger stomach to chest high+ sets, although I wouldn’t expect much consistency with this one. Size lingers through the second half of the week, then a new, slightly larger SSW-SW swell is scheduled to roll in next weekend, 5th-6th.
The storm producing next weekend’s swell is currently south of French Polynesia generating measured seas at around 20-25 feet. It’s not super strong, but some of the fetch is at least pointed in the right direction, and could result in a 2+ feet of deepwater swell during the peak. That means surf potentially running waist to head high at standouts during the peak. It’s still a little too early to call with confidence, but we’ll have updates for you as the time approaches.
Further out, there is potential for another modest scale SSW swell arriving mid the following week (2/8-2/9). The 73 hour models are pretty optimistic on this one at the moment, with the storm producing wave heights in the 25-30 foot range with a somewhat-favorable fetch. Then the storm regroups for a better northward push of broader (albeit weaker) fetch SSW of the Pitcairn Islands about 156 hours out. So it could be a little 1-2 punch of energy, with the combined peak around the 1oth/11th of February. We’ll keep you posted on the progress of that storm/swell system as it develops.
NPAC Overview:
The NPAC storm track has shifted back to higher latitudes lately, with not much swell being aimed at Central America. At this point, only small scale background energy from the North Pacific is expected next week and beyond. We’ll let you know of any changes in that outlook.
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