CRNW Surf Forecast and Reports of 2016-0604 (Sat)

I did not surf today -- getaway morning for my wife so we made it an early start for a great breakfast at the German Bakery. Dave ended up not paddling out although he walked to the bluff and at one point almost paddled out but the wind started to blow on-shore. Tim caught a few waves. The wind is howling now onshore (starting around noon). Yesterday the early morning rain helped to smooth out the sea surface and we had slack wind until mid-afternoon howlers.

Surf is looking rather marginal next week :(

  Model Cycle: 2016 JUN 04 12Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 6 hours              
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
6/4    6am   2 -  5  SSW 209    3.5    12.5    9 - 12  SSE 166 SAT
6/4   12pm   2 -  5   SW 210    3.4    12.3   10 - 14    S 172
6/4    6pm   2 -  4   SW 210    3.4    12.0    9 - 13    S 177
 
6/5    6am   2 -  5   SW 214    3.2    14.6    7 -  9  SSE 163 SUN
6/5   12pm   2 -  5   SW 215    3.2    14.4    8 - 11    S 176
6/5    6pm   3 -  6   SW 217    3.6    14.2    8 - 11  SSW 196
 
6/6    6am   3 -  6   SW 216    4.0    13.4    5 -  7    S 185 MON
6/6   12pm   3 -  6   SW 217    4.1    13.4    7 -  9   SW 223
6/6    6pm   3 -  6   SW 218    4.3    13.3    8 - 11    W 272
 
6/7    6am   3 -  6   SW 218    4.2    12.6    6 -  9  NNW 344 TUE
6/7   12pm   3 -  6   SW 218    4.0    12.5    7 - 10   NW 321
6/7    6pm   1 -  3    W 260    3.9     7.3    8 - 11  WNW 284
 
6/8    6am   1 -  3  WSW 258    4.2     7.1    8 - 11  WNW 309 WED
6/8   12pm   1 -  3  WSW 258    4.0     6.9    3 -  5    W 278
6/8    6pm   1 -  3  WSW 259    3.7     6.8    5 -  6  WNW 290
 
6/9    6am   3 -  6   SW 226    3.5    15.0    3 -  5  NNE  18 THU
6/9   12pm   3 -  6   SW 225    3.4    15.1    2 -  4   SW 227
6/9    6pm   2 -  5   SW 226    3.3    14.3    1 -  1   SW 226
 
6/10   6am   2 -  5   SW 227    3.2    14.1    2 -  2  NNW 346 FRI
6/10  12pm   2 -  5   SW 226    3.3    13.5    3 -  4  WNW 296
6/10   6pm   2 -  5   SW 227    3.4    13.4    6 -  8  WSW 252
 
6/11  12am   4 -  8   SW 221    3.6    18.9    6 -  9  WNW 285 Bye Bye
6/11   6am   4 -  8   SW 221    3.8    18.6    8 - 10  NNW 334

CRNW Surf Forecast and Reports of 2016-0603 (Fri)

Late morning surf... report to follow later.

A near-term pick-up in the wave size forecast!! Not losing anything on Saturday for Beth's airport drop-off (and breakfast at the German Bakery!). Need a day off anyway with my ailing left elbow in addition to rest of the body needing some rest. Sunday and Monday have promise... wind gods please send some offshores, ha ah.

Report: One of our better days. Surf was smaller, in the 3-5 ft range the ones we were riding, The Wash take off shoulder/curl was weaker so you had to be deep into the Wash to catch one, but typical Wash waves, long and those nice inside sections. I actually scored a rare tube midway through the ride :) Beeg smile! Tim had another good day and David learned that it was too small and weak for the Big Wave Mat to work well.

  Model Cycle: 2016 JUN 03 06Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 6 hours              
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
6/3    6am   3 -  6   SW 211    3.9    13.5    6 -  8   SE 138 FRI
6/3   12pm   3 -  6   SW 211    3.8    13.3    6 -  9    S 179
6/3    6pm   2 -  5   SW 213    3.7    12.9    6 -  9  SSW 192
 
6/4    6am   2 -  5  SSW 209    3.4    12.5    7 - 10    S 175 SAT
6/4   12pm   2 -  4   SW 210    3.4    12.3   10 - 14    S 171
6/4    6pm   2 -  5   SW 210    3.5    12.0   11 - 15    S 171
 
6/5    6am   3 -  6   SW 214    3.9    14.6    7 - 10  SSE 164 SUN
6/5   12pm   3 -  7   SW 215    4.3    14.4    8 - 11    S 186
6/5    6pm   3 -  7   SW 217    4.3    14.2    6 -  8  WSW 234
 
6/6    6am   3 -  6   SW 216    4.0    13.4    3 -  5  SSW 205 MON
6/6   12pm   3 -  6   SW 217    3.8    13.4    6 -  8   SW 212
6/6    6pm   2 -  5   SW 218    3.7    13.3    6 -  9    W 263
 
6/7    6am   2 -  5   SW 218    3.9    12.6    5 -  6  WNW 305 TUE
6/7   12pm   2 -  5   SW 218    4.0    12.5    8 - 11  WNW 293
6/7    6pm   1 -  3    W 260    4.2     7.3   11 - 15  WNW 286
 
6/8    6am   1 -  3  WSW 255    4.8     6.8    8 - 11  WNW 301 WED
6/8   12pm   1 -  3  WSW 256    4.7     6.7   10 - 13    W 260
6/8    6pm   2 -  4  WSW 252    5.6     6.5   14 - 19    W 260
 
6/9    6am   2 -  4  WSW 247    5.7     6.6   13 - 17  WSW 245 THU
6/9   12pm   2 -  4  WSW 247    6.1     6.8   10 - 13  WSW 232
6/9    6pm   2 -  4  WSW 258    5.2     6.9    1 -  2  WSW 257
 
6/10  12am   1 -  3    W 264    4.7     7.0    3 -  4  ENE  71 FRI

Effective Friday evening

SHORT TERM FORECAST (through TUESDAY, June 7th)  
Highlights: Modest SSW swell keeps things rideable.    

South Pacific Swell: Old SSW swell (210-200) is fading through this weekend with knee-waist-chest high waves becoming the norm, although Saturday will still see some lingering shoulder high sets at standouts.

Minor leftovers from that swell are joined by a small, reinforcing SSW swell (210-195 over Monday/Tuesday, keeping knee-waist-chest high surf going at best spots.

Wind/Weather: Offshore disturbances are going to set up an atypical wind patter for the region through the next few days. Mornings will start off with light to light+ S-SE winds which will trend more S-SW to WSW at light/moderate levels each afternoon. We may see a slightly better, more diurnal, pattern take over the second of next week.

Most of the region will see partly to mostly cloudy skies each day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely and keep in mind that passing or nearby showers and thunderstorms can temporarily affect/change local wind conditions.    

EXTENDED FORECAST (WEDNESDAY, June 8th, and beyond)   
Highlights: Nice run of Southern hemi swell to start back up around the 11th, continuing through mid-month.

South Pacific Swell: The 8th-10th will be relatively slow overall, with just that modest pulse of SSW swell (210-195) keeping things rideable, in the 3-4' range at top spots.

However, renewed storm activity in the SW Pacific now has a series of storms moving out from under New Zealand the next several days.

That puts building SW-SSW swell (220-200) for the 11th-12th with potential for head high-overhead+ surf by the afternoon on the Sunday the 12th. A larger, reinforcing pulse looks to move in and peak the 13th-16th with potential for pretty solid/large surf during that time. Slow fading trend due the 17th-18th but then we could see a reinforcing S-SSW swell show up around the 19th-20th. 

So, lots going on in the SPAC right now and our confidence on these swells is increasing but we'll have more details early next week after we can gather a little more real-time data on the storms.

CRNW Surf Forecast and Reports of 2016-0601 and -0602 (Wed/Thu)

Wed: Was it 15 sec behaving like 7.5 or 7.5 behaving like 15 sec? Also ten to twelve ft walls breaking across the Cove fifty to a hundred yds out.Maybe 4 to 8 ft between Northside Rock or around there. Stuff was bouncing all around. Many of my better waves were clean, fast drops and a turn, not much else, but that was okay. It was just so confusing swell/surf, a mix of three things which really kind of was messing up the main swell. I did get a cover up on an angled take-off and a couple of rides with some turns.

Thu: More of the same today for an hour of mid-tide. As the tide filled it the surf improved and some takeoffs near The Wash and directly in line at Northside Rock, not the earlier confusion with "near breaking" on the northern line of reef at Northside Rock. We are kind of spent. Surf was a little smaller from yesterday.

  Model Cycle: 2016 JUN 02 06Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 6 hours              
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
6/2    6am   3 -  7   SW 212    4.5    14.4    2 -  4  ESE 110 THU
6/2   12pm   3 -  7   SW 211    4.4    14.2    4 -  5  SSW 203
6/2    6pm   3 -  7   SW 214    4.3    13.8    5 -  7  SSW 191
 
6/3    6am   3 -  6   SW 211    3.9    13.5    4 -  6   SE 137 FRI
6/3   12pm   3 -  6   SW 211    3.8    13.3    6 -  9  SSW 196
6/3    6pm   3 -  6   SW 213    3.9    12.9    9 - 12   SW 224
 
6/4    6am   2 -  5  SSW 209    3.7    12.5    8 - 11   SE 141 SAT
6/4   12pm   2 -  5   SW 210    3.8    12.3   11 - 15  SSE 161
6/4    6pm   2 -  5   SW 210    3.8    12.0   11 - 15    S 177
 
6/5    6am   3 -  6   SW 214    3.7    14.6    8 - 11  SSE 153 SUN
6/5   12pm   3 -  7   SW 215    4.3    14.4   12 - 16  SSE 156
6/5    6pm   1 -  3   SW 227    5.0     6.6    8 - 12  SSW 198
 
6/6    6am   2 -  4   SW 229    5.0     7.0    6 -  9  SSE 168 MON
6/6   12pm   2 -  4  WSW 232    5.0     7.1    7 - 10    S 189
6/6    6pm   2 -  4  WSW 237    4.9     7.0    6 -  8  WSW 236
 
6/7    6am   2 -  4  WSW 241    4.8     7.0    4 -  5  SSW 197 TUE
6/7   12pm   1 -  3  WSW 244    4.7     7.1    9 - 12    W 260
6/7    6pm   1 -  3  WSW 253    4.7     7.1    9 - 12    W 267
 
6/8    6am   1 -  3  WSW 255    4.3     6.9    8 - 11  WSW 249 WED
6/8   12pm   1 -  3  WSW 256    4.5     6.7   12 - 16  WSW 245
6/8    6pm   1 -  3  WSW 247    5.3     6.2   14 - 19    W 268
 
6/9   12am   2 -  4  WSW 251    5.2     6.5    9 - 13  WNW 282 THU

SHORT TERM FORECAST (through SUNDAY, June 5th)  
Highlights: Steadily fading SSW swell.     

The current SSW swell (220-205) is winding down to finish out this week. Thurs/Fri we expect to still see good size though, with chest-head high to slightly overhead surf at many exposed breaks through the region. Standout deepwater spots will still be running a few feet overhead on sets Thursday.

Less size for this weekend with knee-waist high waves becoming the norm, although Saturday will still see some lingering chest high sets at standouts.

Wind/Weather: Wind will be generally light in the early mornings for the next several days. Onshore flow develops by mid mornings and continues for the afternoons. A few spots may see a clean up in the evenings. Most of the region will see partly to mostly cloudy skies each day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely and keep in mind that passing or nearby showers and thunderstorms can temporarily affect/change local wind conditions.    


EXTENDED FORECAST (MONDAY, June 6th, and beyond)    
Highlights: Modest SW swell for the work week; another good run of Southern hemi swell due to start back up around the 11th.
  
South Pacific Swell: The 6th-10th will be relatively slow overall, with just a modest pulse of SW-SSW swell (220-200) keeping things rideable. Mainly offering knee-waist zone surf, with top spots hitting chest high or so on sets. 

However, there's renewed storm activity in the SW Pacific now with a pretty open storm track due to keep a series of storms moving out from under New Zealand the next several days. 

That puts building SW-SSW swell (225-205) for the 10th-12th with potential for fairly solid size surf as the swell tops out around the 13th-15th time frame. Reinforcing SW-SSW swell is also possible for the 16th-17th. We'll be monitoring those storms as they develop through this weekend, so stay tuned for more details as we gather more real-time data.