CRNW 2017-0223p Forecast

Well... the 3-6 ft. didn't hold up for very long. This time for some more cranking over the next 10 days. One can see that NorPac is still in the forecast cycle but the SouPac is beginning to garner greater attention.

  Model Cycle: 2017 FEB 23 06Z   Thursday        
  Time Zone: GMT - 6 hours              
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
2/23   6am   2 -  5  WSW 232    2.9    16.3    1 -  1   SE 140
2/23  12pm   2 -  5  WSW 234    3.0    15.8    5 -  7  WSW 257
2/23   6pm   3 -  6   SW 210    3.1    16.5    7 - 10  WSW 242
 
2/24   6am   2 -  5   SW 211    3.0    15.3    2 -  2  ENE  67
2/24  12pm   2 -  5  SSW 208    3.0    15.3    6 -  9  WSW 251
2/24   6pm   2 -  5   SW 214    3.0    14.3    8 - 10  WSW 259
 
2/25   6am   2 -  4  SSW 207    2.9    14.2    2 -  3  NNE  11
2/25  12pm   2 -  4   SW 214    2.9    13.7    6 -  9  WNW 293
2/25   6pm   2 -  4   SW 210    3.0    13.4    7 -  9  WNW 284
 
2/26   6am   2 -  5  WSW 235    3.0    16.1    6 -  9    N 358
2/26  12pm   2 -  5  WSW 231    3.1    15.4    9 - 12  WNW 304
2/26   6pm   2 -  5  WSW 234    3.3    14.6    4 -  5  WSW 252
 
2/27   6am   2 -  5  WSW 230    3.4    13.9   10 - 14  ENE  69
2/27  12pm   2 -  5   SW 225    3.4    13.6    1 -  1   SW 224
2/27   6pm   2 -  5   SW 222    3.4    13.4    7 - 10  SSW 199
 
2/28   6am   3 -  6   SW 220    4.1    12.7   13 - 17  ENE  61
2/28  12pm   2 -  5   SW 219    3.9    12.6    2 -  3  ESE 114
2/28   6pm   3 -  6   SW 216    3.5    15.5   10 - 13  SSW 200
 
3/1    6am   2 -  5   SW 213    3.2    14.7   10 - 14   NE  49
3/1   12pm   2 -  5   SW 215    3.4    14.6    4 -  6  NNE  22
3/1    6pm   2 -  5   SW 215    3.3    14.4    8 - 11    S 170
 
3/2   12am   2 -  5   SW 212    3.3    14.0   11 - 15  ENE  58

Effective Wednesday afternoon 

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS  

• Modest to fun new SSW late week

• Fun NW swell through Fri (at exposures)

• More fun+ SSW late Feb-early March 

SHORT TERM FORECAST: (through Saturday, February 25th)                        

South Pacific: Modest to fun-zone new SSW swell (210-195) will be creeping up through the day on Thursday. Better breaks are in the knee-waist-chest high range, as areas that can really harness the longer period energy offer some chest/shoulder high+ sets over the afternoon. The bulk of the swell shows Fri-Sun with waist-chest high surf at good breaks as focal points get into the shoulder-head high range.

North Pacific: NW swell is holding for exposures on Thursday. We expect continued thigh-waist-chest high surf at well exposed breaks of North CR, while standouts see sets up to shoulder high+. Size holds Friday morning, coming down a couple notches by that afternoon. Look for those waves to trend down into the weekend.

Wind/Weather: A weak diurnal pattern prevails across Costa Rica through the end of the week. Mornings will start with light/variable to light offshore flow, winds trending onshore by the middle of each day before a light to moderate onshore sea-breeze develops in the afternoons.

EXTENDED FORECAST: (Sunday, February 26th, and beyond)   
       
South Pacific: SSW swell (210-195) nudges up a bit further for Mon/Tue of next week thanks to a stronger fetch over the Central SPAC last weekend. That sets up more waist-chest-shoulder high waves for exposed breaks as focal points offer a few more head high to slightly overhead peaks. Select magnets may go a bit larger at times. Surf slowly eases through the middle of the week.

Further out, an ongoing low over a similar part of the Central SPAC looks poised to deliver a slightly larger SSW swell through the first few days in March. The call for chest-shoulder-head high surf at exposed breaks remains on track, while good spots should push slightly overhead at times. Expected storm activity over the SPAC through the next week looks to send some similar-size SSW swells to round out the first 7-10+ days in March with fun surf. Stay tuned, we'll refine details over the next several days.

North Pacific: Another low latitude storm near Hawaii sends a smaller, but still rideable, NW swell for the 26-27th.

 

CRNW 2017-0219a Forecast

Just the update from yesterday, no significant wrinkles in the trend line. Looks like many Wash waves from various swell angles over the week.

  Model Cycle: 2017 FEB 20 06Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 6 hours              
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
2/20   6am   2 -  4   SW 212    3.0    13.2    6 -  8  ENE  61
2/20  12pm   2 -  4   SW 210    3.0    13.2    6 -  9  WNW 290
2/20   6pm   2 -  4  SSW 209    3.0    12.7    5 -  6    W 262
 
2/21   6am   2 -  4  SSW 208    2.8    12.5    5 -  7   NE  47
2/21  12pm   2 -  4  WSW 242    2.8    13.6    5 -  7  WNW 282
2/21   6pm   2 -  4  WSW 244    2.8    13.4    5 -  7   SW 214
 
2/22   6am   2 -  5  WNW 288    2.7    15.6    0 -  0  NNW 331
2/22  12pm   2 -  5  WNW 282    2.8    15.0    7 - 10    W 275
2/22   6pm   2 -  5    W 266    3.1    15.5    9 - 12  WSW 240
 
2/23   6am   2 -  5  WSW 232    3.0    16.3    5 -  6  WSW 247
2/23  12pm   2 -  5  WSW 233    3.1    15.9    8 - 11  WSW 258
2/23   6pm   3 -  6   SW 210    3.2    16.5    7 -  9    W 263
 
2/24   6am   2 -  5   SW 210    3.1    15.3    2 -  2    W 274
2/24  12pm   2 -  5  SSW 208    3.0    15.3    7 - 10    W 271
2/24   6pm   2 -  5   SW 214    3.1    14.3    7 - 10    W 276
 
2/25   6am   2 -  5  SSW 207    3.0    14.2    4 -  5  NNW 345
2/25  12pm   2 -  4   SW 213    3.0    13.7    8 - 11  WNW 301
2/25   6pm   2 -  5   SW 210    3.2    13.4    8 - 11    W 274
 
2/26   6am   2 -  5   SW 225    3.0    16.2    5 -  7    N   2
2/26  12pm   2 -  5  WSW 231    3.1    15.4    5 -  7   NW 316
2/26   6pm   2 -  5  WSW 234    3.3    14.7    7 - 10    S 186 

CRNW 2017-0219 Forecast

Only two weeks to go!

  Model Cycle: 2017 FEB 19 12Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 6 hours              
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
2/19   6am   2 -  4   SW 210    2.9    13.0    8 - 11   NE  41
2/19  12pm   2 -  4   SW 211    2.9    12.9    6 -  8    W 273
2/19   6pm   2 -  4   SW 211    2.9    12.9    5 -  7    W 278
 
2/20   6am   2 -  4   SW 213    2.8    13.2    3 -  5  NNE  10
2/20  12pm   2 -  4   SW 211    2.8    13.2    8 - 11  WNW 282
2/20   6pm   2 -  4  SSW 209    2.9    12.7    6 -  8  WSW 256
 
2/21   6am   2 -  4  SSW 209    2.7    12.5    6 -  8   NE  45
2/21  12pm   2 -  4    W 278    2.7    15.5    6 -  8  WSW 247
2/21   6pm   1 -  3  SSW 207    2.7    12.0    4 -  6   SW 228
 
2/22   6am   2 -  5  WNW 292    2.8    15.6    1 -  2  WNW 305
2/22  12pm   2 -  5  WNW 292    3.0    15.2    6 -  9    W 271
2/22   6pm   2 -  5  WNW 288    3.1    14.8    7 - 10  WSW 257
 
2/23   6am   2 -  5  WSW 247    3.1    15.1    5 -  6  NNW 336
2/23  12pm   2 -  5  WSW 237    3.1    15.9    8 - 11  WNW 285
2/23   6pm   3 -  6  SSW 206    3.2    16.4    7 -  9    W 266
 
2/24   6am   2 -  5  SSW 209    3.1    15.3    3 -  5   NW 319
2/24  12pm   2 -  5  SSW 206    3.1    15.3    7 - 10    W 278
2/24   6pm   2 -  5   SW 214    3.2    14.2    7 - 10    W 276
 
2/25   6am   2 -  5  SSW 206    3.0    14.2    4 -  5  NNW 337
2/25  12pm   2 -  4   SW 215    3.0    13.6    9 - 12  WNW 304
2/25   6pm   2 -  5   SW 210    3.2    13.3    7 -  9    W 272
 
2/26   6am   3 -  6   SW 226    3.1    16.2    6 -  9   NE  38

Effective Friday evening

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS 

• Fun, but fading, SSW Sat-Mon
• Fun NW Wed-Thur
• Late Feb-early March more fun+ SSW

SHORT TERM FORECAST: (through Monday, February 20th)                        

South Pacific: The fun to mid size SSW swell that has been running over the past couple days will trend down over the weekend. Saturday will see surf running in the chest-head high range at exposed breaks, while standout still push a bit overhead on sets (especially over the first half of the day). Sunday will trend to smaller, but rideable, leftovers in the knee-chest high range at exposed breaks, with a few lingering shoulder high sets at top spots. The surf will continue to slowly back down on Monday

North Pacific: Small scale NW swell trickles in over the weekend (both older/fading NW and a bit of new energy). However, even best exposed breaks will struggle to see sets over waist high from the NW, with most breaks below that.

Wind/Weather: No significant change is expected in our local wind pattern over the next few days. A diurnal pattern will persist for central and southern CR with light/variable to light offshore flow in the morning hours for those regions, before veering to a light+ sea breeze in the afternoons. Northern CR, and especially northernmost CR, will see stronger offshore flow in the mornings.

North Pacific: A low latitude storm that recently swept past Hawaii has set up another fun size NW swell for well exposed breaks for mid next week. We should start to see longer period forerunners gradually build through the day on Tuesday the 21st, although the swell likely peaks Wed/Thur.

During the swell peak we can expect waist-chest high surf at well exposed breaks- primarily in North CR- while standouts see sets up to shoulder to head high. Look for those waves to trend down into the following weekend.

A smaller, but still rideable, NW swell looks likely for the 26-27. 

Long-Range Surf forecast Central America and Mainland Mexico

North Pacific Swell Forecast

A couple smaller pulses of NW energy are due late next week.  Mostly too steep to bring any significant swell our way though.  I’ll have more updates next week if anything more exciting shows up.
South Pacific Swell Forecast
South Pacific models look pretty quiet for the time being.  Long-range forecast suggests potential for some storm energy brewing south of Tahiti/French Polynesia early to mid-next week.

The system gets some NE trajectory at first before taking a more zonal track after it passes south of French Polynesia.  It does strengthen to the point where the fetch could develop 25-30 foot seas.  Not a big swell maker, but it looks like its got most of the qualities of at least one that could send some moderate sized surf for around the end of the month.  It’s still too early to call, but I should have a much better idea in next week’s report.  Stay tuned.

Forecast will be dependent on any new activity in the South Pacific.

Austin Gendron
austin@solspot.com
Surf Forecaster
http://www.solspot.com/