CRNW 2017-0219 Forecast

Only two weeks to go!

  Model Cycle: 2017 FEB 19 12Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 6 hours              
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             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
2/19   6am   2 -  4   SW 210    2.9    13.0    8 - 11   NE  41
2/19  12pm   2 -  4   SW 211    2.9    12.9    6 -  8    W 273
2/19   6pm   2 -  4   SW 211    2.9    12.9    5 -  7    W 278
 
2/20   6am   2 -  4   SW 213    2.8    13.2    3 -  5  NNE  10
2/20  12pm   2 -  4   SW 211    2.8    13.2    8 - 11  WNW 282
2/20   6pm   2 -  4  SSW 209    2.9    12.7    6 -  8  WSW 256
 
2/21   6am   2 -  4  SSW 209    2.7    12.5    6 -  8   NE  45
2/21  12pm   2 -  4    W 278    2.7    15.5    6 -  8  WSW 247
2/21   6pm   1 -  3  SSW 207    2.7    12.0    4 -  6   SW 228
 
2/22   6am   2 -  5  WNW 292    2.8    15.6    1 -  2  WNW 305
2/22  12pm   2 -  5  WNW 292    3.0    15.2    6 -  9    W 271
2/22   6pm   2 -  5  WNW 288    3.1    14.8    7 - 10  WSW 257
 
2/23   6am   2 -  5  WSW 247    3.1    15.1    5 -  6  NNW 336
2/23  12pm   2 -  5  WSW 237    3.1    15.9    8 - 11  WNW 285
2/23   6pm   3 -  6  SSW 206    3.2    16.4    7 -  9    W 266
 
2/24   6am   2 -  5  SSW 209    3.1    15.3    3 -  5   NW 319
2/24  12pm   2 -  5  SSW 206    3.1    15.3    7 - 10    W 278
2/24   6pm   2 -  5   SW 214    3.2    14.2    7 - 10    W 276
 
2/25   6am   2 -  5  SSW 206    3.0    14.2    4 -  5  NNW 337
2/25  12pm   2 -  4   SW 215    3.0    13.6    9 - 12  WNW 304
2/25   6pm   2 -  5   SW 210    3.2    13.3    7 -  9    W 272
 
2/26   6am   3 -  6   SW 226    3.1    16.2    6 -  9   NE  38

Effective Friday evening

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS 

• Fun, but fading, SSW Sat-Mon
• Fun NW Wed-Thur
• Late Feb-early March more fun+ SSW

SHORT TERM FORECAST: (through Monday, February 20th)                        

South Pacific: The fun to mid size SSW swell that has been running over the past couple days will trend down over the weekend. Saturday will see surf running in the chest-head high range at exposed breaks, while standout still push a bit overhead on sets (especially over the first half of the day). Sunday will trend to smaller, but rideable, leftovers in the knee-chest high range at exposed breaks, with a few lingering shoulder high sets at top spots. The surf will continue to slowly back down on Monday

North Pacific: Small scale NW swell trickles in over the weekend (both older/fading NW and a bit of new energy). However, even best exposed breaks will struggle to see sets over waist high from the NW, with most breaks below that.

Wind/Weather: No significant change is expected in our local wind pattern over the next few days. A diurnal pattern will persist for central and southern CR with light/variable to light offshore flow in the morning hours for those regions, before veering to a light+ sea breeze in the afternoons. Northern CR, and especially northernmost CR, will see stronger offshore flow in the mornings.

North Pacific: A low latitude storm that recently swept past Hawaii has set up another fun size NW swell for well exposed breaks for mid next week. We should start to see longer period forerunners gradually build through the day on Tuesday the 21st, although the swell likely peaks Wed/Thur.

During the swell peak we can expect waist-chest high surf at well exposed breaks- primarily in North CR- while standouts see sets up to shoulder to head high. Look for those waves to trend down into the following weekend.

A smaller, but still rideable, NW swell looks likely for the 26-27. 

Long-Range Surf forecast Central America and Mainland Mexico

North Pacific Swell Forecast

A couple smaller pulses of NW energy are due late next week.  Mostly too steep to bring any significant swell our way though.  I’ll have more updates next week if anything more exciting shows up.
South Pacific Swell Forecast
South Pacific models look pretty quiet for the time being.  Long-range forecast suggests potential for some storm energy brewing south of Tahiti/French Polynesia early to mid-next week.

The system gets some NE trajectory at first before taking a more zonal track after it passes south of French Polynesia.  It does strengthen to the point where the fetch could develop 25-30 foot seas.  Not a big swell maker, but it looks like its got most of the qualities of at least one that could send some moderate sized surf for around the end of the month.  It’s still too early to call, but I should have a much better idea in next week’s report.  Stay tuned.

Forecast will be dependent on any new activity in the South Pacific.

Austin Gendron
austin@solspot.com
Surf Forecaster
http://www.solspot.com/