PRNW Forecast & Report of 2017-0113a

Did not surf today. Winds are still a factor and the waves are very jumbled up. I did not check out my usual spots... took the day off to see Rogue One (Star Wars), since we were awake and didn't see a good date to go during the next week as there is now only one showing daily, at 9pm. Rather take the chance of surf conditions being more to my liking the next couple of days.

  Model Cycle: 2017 JAN 13 06Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 4 hours              
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
1/13   8am   8 - 16   NE  34   10.8    12.5   18 - 25   NE  42 FRI
1/13   2pm   8 - 16   NE  34   11.4    12.3   18 - 24   NE  44
1/13   8pm   8 - 16   NE  34   11.3    12.1   18 - 24   NE  45
 
1/14   8am   7 - 15   NE  35   11.1    11.6   19 - 25  ENE  52 SAT
1/14   2pm   7 - 14   NE  37   10.7    11.3   19 - 25  ENE  55
1/14   8pm   6 - 13   NE  38    9.9    11.0   17 - 23  ENE  58
 
1/15   8am   5 - 11   NE  41    8.7    10.6   15 - 21  ENE  71 SUN
1/15   2pm   5 - 10   NE  43    8.3    10.4   17 - 23  ENE  60
1/15   8pm   4 -  9   NE  44    8.0    10.2   18 - 24  ENE  70
 
1/16   8am   4 -  8   NE  46    7.1     9.8   17 - 23  ENE  71 MON
1/16   2pm   4 -  8   NE  46    7.1     9.5   18 - 25  ENE  60
1/16   8pm   3 -  7   NE  48    6.9     9.3   18 - 24  ENE  72
 
1/17   8am   3 -  6   NE  49    6.5     8.8   18 - 24  ENE  71 TUE
1/17   2pm   3 -  6   NE  49    6.6     8.7   18 - 25  ENE  57
1/17   8pm   3 -  6   NE  47    6.3     8.6   17 - 23  ENE  70
 
1/18   8am   3 -  6   NE  46    6.3     8.1   17 - 23  ENE  69 WED
1/18   2pm   2 -  5   NE  48    6.2     8.0   18 - 24  ENE  58
1/18   8pm   2 -  5  ENE  50    5.8     7.9   16 - 22  ENE  67
 
1/19   8am   2 -  4   NE  44    4.8     8.1   12 - 17    E  81 THU
1/19   2pm   2 -  4   NE  36    4.9     7.8   13 - 18  ENE  53
1/19   8pm   2 -  4   NE  37    4.9     7.6   15 - 21  ENE  69

Effective Friday morning

SHORT TERM FORECAST (THROUGH SUNDAY 1/15):
Highlights: Solid surf but elevated trade winds through Sunday.

High pressure will linger over the western Atlantic through the end of the work week. A low pressure system has formed along the SE edge of this system, NNE of the Leeward Islands. This will enhance the fetch along the SE periphery of the ridge. This will keep a lengthy run of swell in the water for the island but will also result in elevated NE/ENE winds.

We we looking at plenty of well overhead surf for the N coast Friday through the weekend but with poor conditions for most. The strong trades will limit the number of breaks that see manageable conditions. Most breaks along the N coast will be blown out with out of control conditions. The more tucked away spots on the NW side of the island will be smaller but still good size with overhead surf Friday through the weekend and worth a look for manageable conditions. We will see the NE/NNE swell linger Sunday while shifting a bit more NE. Trade winds expected to persist then and remain problematic. 

Winds: Strong NE/ENE trade winds will impact the island through Sunday. The super protected spots will be the best bet conditions wise.

EXTENDED SURF FORECAST (MONDAY 1/16 AND BEYOND): 
Highlights: Solid surf through early next week N coast. Surf heights decline Rincon area.

The low pressure system on the eastern side of the ridge will sink south while dissipating over the weekend. Atlantic high pressure however will continue to remain in place setting up continued trade winds. We will transition to more of an ENE trade swell through early next week. This will put biggest surf in the water for the N coast. Rincon will see declining surf heights as the swell direction shifts more NE/ENE. 

PRNW Forecast & Report of 2017-0112a

More wind, wind, wind and currents. "Wind, Wind, go away!"

  Model Cycle: 2017 JAN 12 06Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 4 hours              
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
1/12   8am   5 - 11  NNE  16    9.1    10.3   18 - 24   NE  45
1/12   2pm   5 - 10  NNE  21    9.2     9.9   17 - 23   NE  42
1/12   8pm   7 - 14   NE  31   10.0    12.5   16 - 22   NE  41
 
1/13   8am   8 - 16   NE  34   10.7    12.5   17 - 23   NE  39
1/13   2pm   8 - 17   NE  34   11.5    12.3   19 - 25   NE  45
1/13   8pm   8 - 16   NE  34   11.6    12.1   18 - 25   NE  47
 
1/14   8am   7 - 15   NE  36   11.3    11.7   19 - 26  ENE  52
1/14   2pm   7 - 14   NE  37   11.0    11.4   19 - 26  ENE  52
1/14   8pm   6 - 13   NE  38   10.4    11.1   18 - 25  ENE  58
 
1/15   8am   5 - 11   NE  41    8.9    10.5   16 - 22  ENE  69
1/15   2pm   5 - 10   NE  41    8.6    10.3   18 - 25  ENE  55
1/15   8pm   5 - 10   NE  42    8.6    10.1   18 - 25  ENE  64
 
1/16   8am   4 -  9   NE  45    8.1     9.7   17 - 23  ENE  70
1/16   2pm   4 -  9   NE  46    8.2     9.5   19 - 26  ENE  58
1/16   8pm   4 -  8   NE  48    7.7     9.4   18 - 25  ENE  69
 
1/17   8am   4 -  8   NE  49    7.5     8.9   19 - 25  ENE  64
1/17   2pm   3 -  7   NE  47    7.4     8.8   19 - 26  ENE  60
1/17   8pm   3 -  7   NE  47    7.1     8.7   18 - 25  ENE  61
 
1/18   8am   3 -  6   NE  46    6.8     8.3   17 - 23  ENE  66
1/18   2pm   3 -  6   NE  46    6.8     8.2   18 - 24  ENE  55
1/18   8pm   3 -  6   NE  43    6.6     8.1   16 - 22  ENE  59
 
1/19   2am   3 -  6   NE  42    6.4     8.0   16 - 22  ENE  55

PRNW Forecast & Report of 2017-0111a

Another messy day and lots of dirty, dirty water. One more day wait?

  Model Cycle: 2017 JAN 11 06Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 4 hours              
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
1/11   8am   5 - 11    N   4    9.8    10.0   17 - 23   NE  46 WED
1/11   2pm   5 - 10    N   5    9.1     9.9   18 - 24   NE  41
1/11   8pm   5 - 10    N   8    8.8     9.7   18 - 24  ENE  50
 
1/12   8am   5 - 11  NNE  16    9.5    10.3   19 - 25   NE  46 THU
1/12   2pm   5 - 11  NNE  22    9.6     9.9   17 - 23   NE  41
1/12   8pm   7 - 15   NE  31   10.2    12.6   15 - 21   NE  40
 
1/13   8am   8 - 16   NE  33   11.0    12.6   17 - 23   NE  42 FRI
1/13   2pm   8 - 17   NE  32   11.7    12.4   18 - 25   NE  44
1/13   8pm   8 - 16   NE  32   11.7    12.0   19 - 26  ENE  52
 
1/14   8am   8 - 16   NE  34   11.6    11.5   20 - 27   NE  47 SAT
1/14   2pm   7 - 15   NE  37   11.2    11.3   19 - 26  ENE  50
1/14   8pm   7 - 14   NE  39   10.7    11.1   19 - 25  ENE  55
 
1/15   8am   6 - 12   NE  42    9.6    10.7   17 - 23  ENE  65 SUN
1/15   2pm   5 - 11   NE  43    9.2    10.5   18 - 24  ENE  58
1/15   8pm   5 - 10   NE  45    8.8    10.3   17 - 23  ENE  71
 
1/16   8am   4 -  9   NE  47    7.8     9.9   17 - 24  ENE  70 MON
1/16   2pm   4 -  8   NE  49    7.6     9.7   19 - 26  ENE  59
1/16   8pm   4 -  8   NE  49    7.0     9.5   17 - 24  ENE  70
 
1/17   8am   3 -  6  ENE  51    6.3     9.0   16 - 21  ENE  71 TUE
1/17   2pm   3 -  6  ENE  50    6.2     8.8   17 - 23  ENE  54
1/17   8pm   3 -  6  ENE  51    6.1     8.7   18 - 24  ENE  68
 
1/18   2am   2 -  5  ENE  50    5.5     8.6   15 - 21  ENE  64 WED

PRNW Forecast & Report of 2017-0110a

Yup, it is big and messy. Drizzly as well. At 8:15a, winds,

although light, are on-shore/side-shore. Some breaking waves are

leaving westbound spray but lots of ugly rolling over. 

 Model Cycle: 2017 JAN 10 06Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 4 hours              
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
1/10   8am   5 - 10  NNW 338    8.7    10.4   12 - 17   NE  49
1/10   2pm   5 - 11  NNW 345    9.4    10.2   16 - 21  NNE  29
1/10   8pm   6 - 13    N 351   11.5    10.1   21 - 29   NE  47
 
1/11   8am   6 - 12    N   1   10.0    10.1   17 - 23  ENE  50
1/11   2pm   5 - 11    N   3    9.6    10.1   18 - 24   NE  43
1/11   8pm   5 - 10  NNE  10    9.2     9.9   18 - 25  ENE  50
 
1/12   8am   5 - 11  NNE  17    9.4    10.4   18 - 25  ENE  55
1/12   2pm   5 - 11  NNE  23    9.9    10.1   19 - 25   NE  47
1/12   8pm   7 - 15   NE  31   10.6    12.4   17 - 23   NE  46
 
1/13   8am   7 - 15   NE  34   10.3    12.5   15 - 21   NE  43
1/13   2pm   7 - 15   NE  34   10.3    12.1   16 - 22   NE  41
1/13   8pm   7 - 15   NE  35   10.9    12.0   18 - 25   NE  47
 
1/14   8am   7 - 15   NE  36   11.2    11.8   20 - 27   NE  49
1/14   2pm   7 - 15   NE  37   11.4    11.6   19 - 26   NE  48
1/14   8pm   7 - 15   NE  38   11.2    11.5   19 - 25  ENE  53
 
1/15   8am   6 - 13   NE  40   10.4    11.0   18 - 25  ENE  59
1/15   2pm   6 - 13   NE  41   10.3    10.8   19 - 25  ENE  56
1/15   8pm   6 - 12   NE  42    9.8    10.7   17 - 24  ENE  62
 
1/16   8am   5 - 11   NE  44    9.0    10.4   16 - 22  ENE  70
1/16   2pm   5 - 10   NE  46    8.9    10.2   19 - 26  ENE  58
1/16   8pm   5 - 10   NE  47    8.5     9.9   17 - 23  ENE  66
 
1/17   2am   4 -  9   NE  49    8.0     9.7   18 - 24  ENE  64

PRNW Forecast & Report of 2017-0109a

Flat at DP hour, back to sleep. Will keep an eye open for the forerunners late this afternoon.

Week-long, or longer, swell coming, along with tons of easterly winds. Looks like after a few days the swell size on the west coast will moderate as the source goes from NNW to N to NNE to NE. So there is hope for hanging on surfriders such as myself ;)

Swells around the same size as periods isn't something we see in the double digits very often.

  Model Cycle: 2017 JAN 09 06Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 4 hours              
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
1/9    8am   2 -  5   NE  40    3.4    12.4   11 - 15   NE  41 MON
1/9    2pm   2 -  5   NE  39    3.6    11.8   13 - 18   NE  31
1/9    8pm   2 -  5   NE  32    4.0    11.7   13 - 18   NE  41
 
1/10   2am   4 -  8  NNW 336    6.3    10.8    9 - 13  ENE  58 TUE
1/10   8am   5 - 10  NNW 338    8.1    10.4   13 - 18  ENE  51
1/10   2pm   5 - 10  NNW 344    8.7    10.3   15 - 20   NE  33
1/10   8pm   6 - 12    N 351   10.2    10.0   19 - 27  ENE  50
 
1/11   2am   6 - 12    N 357   10.4     9.8   19 - 26  ENE  50 WED
1/11   8am   5 - 11    N   2    9.8     9.9   18 - 24  ENE  50
1/11   2pm   6 - 12    N   2    9.9    10.2   18 - 25   NE  45
1/11   8pm   6 - 12    N   7   10.1    10.3   20 - 27  ENE  53
 
1/12   2am   6 - 12  NNE  14    9.9    10.4   17 - 23  ENE  56 THU
1/12   8am   5 - 11  NNE  19    9.1    10.2   18 - 25  ENE  50
1/12   2pm   6 - 12  NNE  24   10.4     9.8   17 - 23   NE  44
1/12   8pm   8 - 16   NE  31   10.8    12.5   17 - 24   NE  46
 
1/13   2am   7 - 15   NE  33   10.5    12.3   18 - 24   NE  40 FRI
1/13   8am   7 - 15   NE  33   10.6    12.0   18 - 24   NE  39
1/13   2pm   8 - 16   NE  35   11.3    11.9   18 - 25   NE  43
1/13   8pm   8 - 16   NE  34   11.6    11.9   18 - 25   NE  46
 
1/14   2am   8 - 16   NE  34   11.6    11.8   18 - 24   NE  48 SAT
1/14   8am   8 - 16   NE  34   12.0    11.7   20 - 27   NE  46
1/14   2pm   8 - 16   NE  34   12.1    11.5   19 - 26   NE  45
1/14   8pm   8 - 16   NE  36   11.7    11.4   19 - 26   NE  44
 
1/15   2am   7 - 15   NE  37   11.4    11.2   18 - 24   NE  41 SUN
1/15   8am   7 - 15   NE  38   11.4    11.1   19 - 26   NE  44
1/15   2pm   7 - 15   NE  38   11.8    11.0   19 - 26  ENE  51
1/15   8pm   7 - 15   NE  39   11.8    11.1   18 - 25  ENE  58
 
1/16   2am   7 - 14   NE  40   11.3    11.0   19 - 25  ENE  60 MON

Effective Sunday afternoon
                

SHORT TERM FORECAST (THROUGH TUESDAY 1/10):

Low pressure rapidly skirted up the East Coast US this weekend with high pressure building over the eastern US. This has set up a large area of NW/N winds directed towards the Caribbean which will send a healthy dose of NW/NNW swell that fills in on Tuesday with double overhead sets likely towards the middle and second half of the day. A mix of NNW/NNE swell and N/NE windswell offers surf in the well overhead to double overhead+ range moving into Wednesday.

High pressure slides off the coast of the Southeast US on Monday before rapidly tracking NE along the East Coast. A ridge from this system just barely extends over PR late Monday into mid-week. This will set up a a flow of N/NE winds over the region as we move through the beginning of the week.

NE swell and ENE trade windswell mix continues for Monday with waist-chest high surf at most breaks along the N coast. NW/N swell from the aforementioned low pressure system will fill in early Tuesday, with the surf reaching double overhead at the most exposed breaks late Tuesday. Keep in mind that due to the swell direction, breaks around Rincon will be a few notches smaller than the N coast but will see slightly cleaner conditions with lighter winds.

EXTENDED SURF FORECAST (WEDNESDAY 1/11 AND BEYOND): 

N/NNE swell continues on Wednesday with surf reaching double overhead+ at the most exposed breaks. Reinforcing NE windswell/swell from high pressure sliding off the coast of the US early in the week will continue to send surf in the 6-10'+ range through the end of the week. There is even potential for plus sized sets reaching 12'+ at the most exposed breaks. Rincon will see smaller surf, mainly staying around 5-7' with plus sets at the most exposed breaks.

The major issue will be our local winds as strong NNE/NE winds will continue through the end of the week and limit the number of breaks that see manageable conditions. Most breaks along the N coast will be blown out with out of control conditions. The more tucked away spots on the NW side of the island will be smaller but worth a look for manageable conditions through the end of the week and into the weekend.

A frontal boundary associated with the low pressure system that exits over the weekend looks to linger over the central Atlantic into early/mid next week while high pressure builds towards the US East Coast. Some of the model guidance suggests a wave of low pressure could develop along that front to the north of the island which would impact our surf and wind outlook for the second half of next week. At this point confidence is increasing that reinforcing N/NE windswell from this system will mix in for the end of the week and weekend. The wind forecast for that time period is more uncertain due to the potential low pressure system — stay tuned as we fine tune the outlook over the coming days.