Week-long, or longer, swell coming, along with tons of easterly winds. Looks like after a few days the swell size on the west coast will moderate as the source goes from NNW to N to NNE to NE. So there is hope for hanging on surfriders such as myself ;)
Swells around the same size as periods isn't something we see in the double digits very often.
Model Cycle: 2017 JAN 09 06Z Time Zone: GMT - 4 hours ------------------------------------------------------------ - SURF SURF DIR SEAS PERIOD WIND WND/DIR (ft) (deg) (ft) (sec) (kts) (deg) ------- -------- ----- ------ ------- ------- 1/9 8am 2 - 5 NE 40 3.4 12.4 11 - 15 NE 41 MON 1/9 2pm 2 - 5 NE 39 3.6 11.8 13 - 18 NE 31 1/9 8pm 2 - 5 NE 32 4.0 11.7 13 - 18 NE 41 1/10 2am 4 - 8 NNW 336 6.3 10.8 9 - 13 ENE 58 TUE 1/10 8am 5 - 10 NNW 338 8.1 10.4 13 - 18 ENE 51 1/10 2pm 5 - 10 NNW 344 8.7 10.3 15 - 20 NE 33 1/10 8pm 6 - 12 N 351 10.2 10.0 19 - 27 ENE 50 1/11 2am 6 - 12 N 357 10.4 9.8 19 - 26 ENE 50 WED 1/11 8am 5 - 11 N 2 9.8 9.9 18 - 24 ENE 50 1/11 2pm 6 - 12 N 2 9.9 10.2 18 - 25 NE 45 1/11 8pm 6 - 12 N 7 10.1 10.3 20 - 27 ENE 53 1/12 2am 6 - 12 NNE 14 9.9 10.4 17 - 23 ENE 56 THU 1/12 8am 5 - 11 NNE 19 9.1 10.2 18 - 25 ENE 50 1/12 2pm 6 - 12 NNE 24 10.4 9.8 17 - 23 NE 44 1/12 8pm 8 - 16 NE 31 10.8 12.5 17 - 24 NE 46 1/13 2am 7 - 15 NE 33 10.5 12.3 18 - 24 NE 40 FRI 1/13 8am 7 - 15 NE 33 10.6 12.0 18 - 24 NE 39 1/13 2pm 8 - 16 NE 35 11.3 11.9 18 - 25 NE 43 1/13 8pm 8 - 16 NE 34 11.6 11.9 18 - 25 NE 46 1/14 2am 8 - 16 NE 34 11.6 11.8 18 - 24 NE 48 SAT 1/14 8am 8 - 16 NE 34 12.0 11.7 20 - 27 NE 46 1/14 2pm 8 - 16 NE 34 12.1 11.5 19 - 26 NE 45 1/14 8pm 8 - 16 NE 36 11.7 11.4 19 - 26 NE 44 1/15 2am 7 - 15 NE 37 11.4 11.2 18 - 24 NE 41 SUN 1/15 8am 7 - 15 NE 38 11.4 11.1 19 - 26 NE 44 1/15 2pm 7 - 15 NE 38 11.8 11.0 19 - 26 ENE 51 1/15 8pm 7 - 15 NE 39 11.8 11.1 18 - 25 ENE 58 1/16 2am 7 - 14 NE 40 11.3 11.0 19 - 25 ENE 60 MON
Effective Sunday afternoon
SHORT TERM FORECAST (THROUGH TUESDAY 1/10):
Low pressure rapidly skirted up the East Coast US this weekend with high pressure building over the eastern US. This has set up a large area of NW/N winds directed towards the Caribbean which will send a healthy dose of NW/NNW swell that fills in on Tuesday with double overhead sets likely towards the middle and second half of the day. A mix of NNW/NNE swell and N/NE windswell offers surf in the well overhead to double overhead+ range moving into Wednesday.
High pressure slides off the coast of the Southeast US on Monday before rapidly tracking NE along the East Coast. A ridge from this system just barely extends over PR late Monday into mid-week. This will set up a a flow of N/NE winds over the region as we move through the beginning of the week.
NE swell and ENE trade windswell mix continues for Monday with waist-chest high surf at most breaks along the N coast. NW/N swell from the aforementioned low pressure system will fill in early Tuesday, with the surf reaching double overhead at the most exposed breaks late Tuesday. Keep in mind that due to the swell direction, breaks around Rincon will be a few notches smaller than the N coast but will see slightly cleaner conditions with lighter winds.
EXTENDED SURF FORECAST (WEDNESDAY 1/11 AND BEYOND):
N/NNE swell continues on Wednesday with surf reaching double overhead+ at the most exposed breaks. Reinforcing NE windswell/swell from high pressure sliding off the coast of the US early in the week will continue to send surf in the 6-10'+ range through the end of the week. There is even potential for plus sized sets reaching 12'+ at the most exposed breaks. Rincon will see smaller surf, mainly staying around 5-7' with plus sets at the most exposed breaks.
The major issue will be our local winds as strong NNE/NE winds will continue through the end of the week and limit the number of breaks that see manageable conditions. Most breaks along the N coast will be blown out with out of control conditions. The more tucked away spots on the NW side of the island will be smaller but worth a look for manageable conditions through the end of the week and into the weekend.
A frontal boundary associated with the low pressure system that exits over the weekend looks to linger over the central Atlantic into early/mid next week while high pressure builds towards the US East Coast. Some of the model guidance suggests a wave of low pressure could develop along that front to the north of the island which would impact our surf and wind outlook for the second half of next week. At this point confidence is increasing that reinforcing N/NE windswell from this system will mix in for the end of the week and weekend. The wind forecast for that time period is more uncertain due to the potential low pressure system — stay tuned as we fine tune the outlook over the coming days.
Low pressure rapidly skirted up the East Coast US this weekend with high pressure building over the eastern US. This has set up a large area of NW/N winds directed towards the Caribbean which will send a healthy dose of NW/NNW swell that fills in on Tuesday with double overhead sets likely towards the middle and second half of the day. A mix of NNW/NNE swell and N/NE windswell offers surf in the well overhead to double overhead+ range moving into Wednesday.
High pressure slides off the coast of the Southeast US on Monday before rapidly tracking NE along the East Coast. A ridge from this system just barely extends over PR late Monday into mid-week. This will set up a a flow of N/NE winds over the region as we move through the beginning of the week.
NE swell and ENE trade windswell mix continues for Monday with waist-chest high surf at most breaks along the N coast. NW/N swell from the aforementioned low pressure system will fill in early Tuesday, with the surf reaching double overhead at the most exposed breaks late Tuesday. Keep in mind that due to the swell direction, breaks around Rincon will be a few notches smaller than the N coast but will see slightly cleaner conditions with lighter winds.
EXTENDED SURF FORECAST (WEDNESDAY 1/11 AND BEYOND):
N/NNE swell continues on Wednesday with surf reaching double overhead+ at the most exposed breaks. Reinforcing NE windswell/swell from high pressure sliding off the coast of the US early in the week will continue to send surf in the 6-10'+ range through the end of the week. There is even potential for plus sized sets reaching 12'+ at the most exposed breaks. Rincon will see smaller surf, mainly staying around 5-7' with plus sets at the most exposed breaks.
The major issue will be our local winds as strong NNE/NE winds will continue through the end of the week and limit the number of breaks that see manageable conditions. Most breaks along the N coast will be blown out with out of control conditions. The more tucked away spots on the NW side of the island will be smaller but worth a look for manageable conditions through the end of the week and into the weekend.
A frontal boundary associated with the low pressure system that exits over the weekend looks to linger over the central Atlantic into early/mid next week while high pressure builds towards the US East Coast. Some of the model guidance suggests a wave of low pressure could develop along that front to the north of the island which would impact our surf and wind outlook for the second half of next week. At this point confidence is increasing that reinforcing N/NE windswell from this system will mix in for the end of the week and weekend. The wind forecast for that time period is more uncertain due to the potential low pressure system — stay tuned as we fine tune the outlook over the coming days.
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