Sunday, January 8, 2017

PRNW Forecast & Report of 2017-0108a

Curao con los pequeñitos de Pico. Fun session, first in real waves for about 6 months and first time on the new Bonzeresque board. All went well. This board might be a little better than the Campbell bonzer at PdP. Small waves wrapping around from the larger NE swell, 2-3 ft. with maybe a few larger ones (chest to shoulder, but I didn't catch any of those mutant waves). Solo surf for the first hour which was a nice way to reacquaint myself with surfing! Second hour is slowed down but it was fun talking story with a local bodyboarder that was trying out a long board in the small surf, a local guy, Christián.

May venture north tomorrow as big surf with lots of wind will be jump in overnight Sunday into Monday and stick around a good part of the week. More options when it takes on a more NE character. 

Post Surf Grinds (slurps): Cafecito from my favorite bakery, nice to wish seasons greetings to the staff.

  Model Cycle: 2017 JAN 08 06Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 4 hours              
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
1/8    8am   3 -  7   NE  40    4.3    13.7    8 - 11    E  90 SUN
1/8    2pm   3 -  6   NE  40    4.0    13.4    5 -  7  NNE  25
 
1/9    2am   2 -  5   NE  40    3.5    12.6    9 - 12  ENE  65 MON
1/9    8am   2 -  5   NE  40    3.4    12.4   11 - 15   NE  48
1/9    2pm   2 -  5   NE  39    3.6    11.8   14 - 19  NNE  28
1/9    8pm   2 -  5   NE  33    4.1    11.7   15 - 21   NE  37
 
1/10   2am   4 -  8  NNW 335    6.8    11.0   13 - 17  ENE  51 TUE
1/10   8am   5 - 10  NNW 339    8.2    10.7   15 - 20   NE  48
1/10   2pm   5 - 11  NNW 343    8.9    10.5   16 - 22   NE  41
1/10   8pm   6 - 13    N 351   11.1    10.2   21 - 29  ENE  50
 
1/11   2am   6 - 13    N   0   11.3    10.2   20 - 27   NE  46 WED
1/11   8am   6 - 12    N   3   10.5    10.2   18 - 24   NE  45
1/11   2pm   5 - 11  NNE  10    9.6     9.9   17 - 23   NE  39
1/11   8pm   5 - 10  NNE  12    9.1     9.8   18 - 25   NE  49
 
1/12   2am   5 - 10  NNE  14    9.0     9.8   19 - 25  ENE  55 THU
1/12   8am   5 - 10  NNE  17    9.3     9.6   19 - 26   NE  44
1/12   2pm   6 - 12  NNE  23   10.4     9.7   17 - 23   NE  41
1/12   8pm   7 - 15   NE  30   10.7    12.4   16 - 22   NE  38
 
1/13   2am   7 - 14   NE  31   10.1    12.3   17 - 23   NE  35 FRI
1/13   8am   8 - 16   NE  31   11.1    12.6   18 - 25   NE  42
1/13   2pm   8 - 16  NNE  29   11.6    12.2   18 - 25   NE  44
1/13   8pm   8 - 16  NNE  29   11.6    11.7   20 - 27   NE  46
 
1/14   2am   8 - 16  NNE  29   11.8    11.3   18 - 25   NE  49 SAT
1/14   8am   7 - 15   NE  31   11.7    11.2   19 - 26  ENE  51
1/14   2pm   7 - 15   NE  33   11.8    11.1   19 - 27  ENE  54
1/14   8pm   7 - 15   NE  34   11.4    11.0   19 - 26  ENE  52
 
1/15   2am   7 - 14   NE  35   11.0    11.0   18 - 25   NE  48 SUN
 
Effective Sunday morning
                
SHORT TERM FORECAST (THROUGH MONDAY 1/9):

We are expecting longer period NE swell from low pressure near the Azores to filter in over the weekend and offer fun surf for the better breaks along the N coast. NE swell and ENE trade windswell mix continues today with waves in the chest/shoulder high zone and sets up to around head high as the swell peaks early and eases slightly through the day. More easing surf is due for Monday with waist-chest high surf at most breaks along the N coast. Keep in mind that due to the swell direction, breaks around Rincon will be a few notches smaller than the N coast but will see slightly cleaner conditions with lighter winds.

Winds: Expect moderate ENE winds to persist through the day today. Moderate ENE winds on Monday morning trend NE and build to moderate-strong winds around 15-20kts by the afternoon. Breaks in the Rincon area will see light ENE winds trend NE in the afternoon today and become moderate for Monday.

EXTENDED SURF FORECAST (TUESDAY 1/10 AND BEYOND): 
Highlights: Solid surf fills in on Tuesday but local winds and conditions look problematic for most breaks. No shortage of surf in the longer range outlook for late next week into next weekend.

Low pressure rapidly skirts up the East Coast US this weekend while high pressure builds over the eastern US. This pattern sets up a large area of NW/N winds directed towards the Caribbean which will send a healthy dose of NW/NNW swell that fills in on Tuesday with double overhead sets likely towards the middle and second half of the day. A mix of NNW swell and N/NE windswell offers surf in the well overhead to double overhead+ range for the rest of the week.

The major issue will be our local winds as strong NNE/NE winds will continue through the end of the week and limit the number of breaks that see manageable conditions. Most breaks along the N coast will be blown out with out of control conditions. The more tucked away spots on the NW side of the island will be smaller but worth a look for manageable conditions both Tuesday and Wednesday.

A frontal boundary associated with the low pressure system that exits over the weekend looks to linger over the central Atlantic into early/mid next week while high pressure builds towards the US East Coast. Some of the model guidance suggests a wave of low pressure could develop along that front to the north of the island which would impact our surf and wind outlook for the second half of next week. At this point confidence is increasing that large N/NNE windswell/swell mix will continue for the island next Thursday/Friday and likely into next weekend. The wind forecast for that time period is more uncertain due to the potential low pressure system — stay tuned as we fine tune the outlook over the coming days.
 

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