Not much swell wrapping in and I opted not to drive up to Wilderness today. Let the surf-starved hordes descend and maybe I will check it out in a couple of days. A lot of feast or famine for the next week.
Model Cycle: 2017 JAN 07 06Z
Time Zone: GMT - 4 hours
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SURF SURF DIR SEAS PERIOD WIND WND/DIR
(ft) (deg) (ft) (sec) (kts) (deg)
------- -------- ----- ------ ------- -------
1/7 8am 4 - 8 NE 41 4.1 16.1 9 - 13 E 89
1/7 2pm 3 - 7 NE 41 4.2 15.5 6 - 8 NE 36
1/7 8pm 4 - 8 NE 42 4.8 14.7 8 - 11 E 98
1/8 8am 3 - 7 NE 40 4.5 13.7 7 - 10 E 85
1/8 2pm 3 - 6 NE 40 4.1 13.4 5 - 7 NNE 12
1/8 8pm 3 - 6 NE 40 3.9 13.0 8 - 11 ENE 68
1/9 8am 2 - 5 NE 40 3.6 12.4 12 - 16 ENE 52
1/9 2pm 2 - 5 NE 39 3.6 11.8 13 - 18 NE 39
1/9 8pm 2 - 5 NE 37 4.0 11.7 15 - 20 NE 48
1/10 2am 4 - 9 NNW 336 6.6 11.3 15 - 20 NE 43
1/10 8am 5 - 11 NNW 340 8.6 10.8 17 - 23 ENE 59
1/10 2pm 5 - 11 NNW 346 9.4 10.5 18 - 24 NE 49
1/10 8pm 6 - 13 N 353 11.0 10.4 20 - 27 ENE 55
1/11 8am 6 - 13 N 6 10.8 10.2 19 - 26 ENE 51
1/11 2pm 6 - 12 N 9 10.2 10.0 19 - 26 NE 45
1/11 8pm 5 - 11 NNE 15 9.5 9.9 18 - 25 ENE 52
1/12 8am 5 - 10 NNE 20 9.0 9.8 18 - 24 NE 48
1/12 2pm 6 - 12 NNE 25 10.0 10.3 16 - 22 NE 42
1/12 8pm 8 - 16 NE 33 10.6 13.0 17 - 23 NE 38
1/13 8am 8 - 16 NE 33 11.2 12.3 16 - 22 ENE 58
1/13 2pm 7 - 15 NE 33 11.1 11.8 18 - 25 ENE 52
1/13 8pm 7 - 15 NE 34 10.8 11.6 17 - 24 ENE 60
1/14 2am 7 - 14 NE 35 10.6 11.2 17 - 24 ENE 60
SHORT TERM FORECAST (THROUGH SUNDAY 1/8):
Highlights: NE swell fills in today into Sunday, mainly for the N coast.
Conditions are most favorable in the mornings.
We are expecting longer period NE swell from low pressure near the
Azores to filter in over the weekend and offer fun surf for the better
breaks along the N coast. The NE swell will mix in with continued ENE
trade windswell to offer surf in the waist to chest+ range today,
biggest late in the day. NE swell and ENE trade windswell continues on
Sunday with waves in the chest/shoulder high zone and sets up to around
head high as the swell peaks. Keep in mind that due to the swell
direction breaks around Rincon will be a few notches smaller than the N
coast over the weekend.
EXTENDED SURF FORECAST (MONDAY 1/9 AND BEYOND):
We are expecting a mix of lingering NE swell and ENE trade windswell for Monday to offer
surf in the waist-chest high zone for breaks along the N coast. A small
amount of NNW swell will also mix in and provide surf in around the
1-2'+ range for the Rincon area though bigger sets are possible for the
better northerly facing breaks. Conditions look best in the morning
before trade winds come up some in the afternoon.
Low pressure develops along an old frontal boundary and moves quickly through the
western Atlantic during the weekend while high pressure builds over the
eastern US. This pattern sets up a large area of NW/N winds directed
towards the Caribbean which will set up a healthy dose of NW/NNW swell
that fills in on Tuesday with double overhead sets likely towards the
middle and second half of the day. A mix of NNW swell and N/NE windswell
offers surf in the well overhead to double overhead+ range for Wednesday.
The major issue will be our local winds on Tuesday
and Wednesday as strong NNE/NE winds will really limit the number of
breaks that see manageable conditions. Most breaks along the N coast
will be blown out with out of control conditions. The more tucked away
spots on the NW side of the island will be smaller but worth a look for
manageable conditions both Tuesday and Wednesday.
A frontal boundary associated with the low pressure system that exits over the
weekend looks to linger over the central Atlantic into early/mid next
week while high pressure builds towards the US East Coast. Some of the
model guidance suggests a wave of low pressure could develop along that
front to the north of the island which would impact our surf and wind
outlook for the second half of next week. At this point confidence is
increasing that large N/NNE windswell/swell mix will continue for the
island next Thursday/Friday and likely into next weekend. The wind
forecast for that time period is more uncertain due to the potential low
pressure system — stay tuned as we fine tune the outlook over the
coming days.
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