PRNW Forecast of 2017-0104a

The swells are coming indeed. Looks like some sitting on the beach (or up a coco tree for a good view). Big swell in a week will be accompanied by a lot of wind albeit mostly offshore at Tres Palmas.

  Model Cycle: 2017 JAN 04 06Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 4 hours              
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             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
1/4    8am   1 -  3   NE  49    4.2     7.8    8 - 11    E  96
1/4    2pm   1 -  3  ENE  51    3.7     7.8    3 -  4  WNW 297
 
1/5    8am   1 -  2  ENE  52    3.1     7.5    5 -  7  ESE 111
1/5    2pm   1 -  2  ENE  52    3.0     7.5    6 -  8  NNW 337
1/5    8pm   1 -  2  ENE  54    3.0     7.3    3 -  5  ENE  78
 
1/6    8am   1 -  2  ENE  58    3.0     7.1    7 - 10    E  88 FRI
1/6    2pm   1 -  3   NE  35    3.0    11.0    7 -  9  NNE  22
 
1/7    2am   2 -  5   NE  39    4.0    11.7   12 - 16    E  88 SAT
1/7    8am   3 -  7   NE  41    4.0    16.1   12 - 16    E  85
1/7    2pm   3 -  7   NE  41    4.3    15.5   10 - 14  ENE  55
1/7    8pm   4 -  8   NE  42    4.7    14.7   12 - 16    E  81
 
1/8    8am   3 -  7   NE  40    4.5    13.7    7 - 10    E  83 SUN
1/8    2pm   3 -  7   NE  40    4.4    13.4    5 -  6    N 357
1/8    8pm   3 -  6   NE  40    4.1    13.1    6 -  9    E  86
 
1/9    8am   2 -  5   NE  40    3.4    12.4   10 - 14    E  80 MON
1/9    2pm   2 -  4   NE  40    3.2    11.8   12 - 16   NE  38
1/9    8pm   2 -  4   NE  38    3.5    11.8   13 - 18   NE  47
 
1/10   2am   2 -  5  NNW 348    3.9    11.6   14 - 19   NE  46 TUE
1/10   8am   3 -  6  NNW 335    5.2    10.6   13 - 18  ENE  58
1/10   2pm   5 - 11  NNW 342    8.8    11.1   15 - 21   NE  48
1/10   8pm   7 - 14  NNW 348   10.6    11.1   22 - 30   NE  39
 
1/11   2am  10 - 20    N   2   15.3    11.0   23 - 31   NE  40 WED

EXTENDED SURF FORECAST (FRIDAY 1/6 AND BEYOND):

High pressure that extends towards the Caribbean over the coming days will set up minor amounts of trade windswell for the island on Friday. Expect better spots to see surf in the 2-3' range with minimal traces around the Rincon area. Trade windswell continues to mix in for the weekend and into the early part of next week as well.

Outside of trade windswell we will see low pressure linger north of the Azores over the next several days. NE swell generated by the system will filter in on Friday and continue over the weekend before gradually easing some next week. It does look like we will be dealing with a typical trade wind pattern for Friday through Monday so the mornings along the N coast look to be the best periods to get some surf with manageable conditions. Because of the swell direction a smaller version of this will be found for the breaks around the Rincon area, mainly the more northerly facing breaks.

Computer model guidance is coming into better agreement regarding the frontal activity over the western Atlantic this weekend and into early next week. Winds behind the front will set up a solid shot of NNW swell that fills in for Tuesday and continues on Wednesday. NNW/N becoming NNE swell is expected for the second half of next week and into the following weekend.

While confidence is increasing that we will see a solid amount of swell from this pattern the major wildcard still is the local winds. If the frontal boundary makes it far enough down we'd expect strong NE winds during the peak of the swell which would really limit which spots will see favorable conditions. If the boundary stalls to the north of the island local winds will be more favorable but I expect the swell will still be rather 'raw' and lumpy due to the proximity of the front. Stay tuned as we continue to fine-tune the outlook for next week over the coming days.