Wednesday, January 18, 2017

PRNW Forecast & Report of 2017-0118a

More of the same... flatness/tinyness, bump, current. Domes is
really a logger day. Indicators might have had some micro ridable
tubelets but is is worth tearing up my fins? Yesterday I slept in.

What a wetless trip! At least there is the daily shower ;)

Outlook: Winds begin to decrease, Saturday looks promising.

 
 Model Cycle: 2017 JAN 18 06Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 4 hours              
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
1/18   8am   2 -  5   NE  43    5.5     8.1   14 - 19  ENE  65 WED
1/18   2pm   2 -  4   NE  44    4.8     8.0   13 - 18   NE  37
1/18   8pm   1 -  3   NE  44    4.2     7.9   12 - 16  ENE  59
 
1/19   8am   1 -  3   NE  35    3.9     7.9    8 - 11    E  81 THU
1/19   2pm   1 -  3   NE  35    3.7     7.8    3 -  5    N   0
1/19   8pm   1 -  3   NE  34    3.4     7.8    7 -  9   NE  40
 
1/20   8am   1 -  2   NE  31    2.9     8.0    5 -  7  ENE  62 FRI
1/20   2pm   1 -  2   NE  30    2.7     8.0    4 -  6  NNW 339
1/20   8pm   1 -  3    N   0    2.8    11.9    7 -  9  NNE  23
 
1/21   8am   2 -  4    N 350    4.2     9.9    4 -  5  NNE  25 SAT
1/21   2pm   2 -  4  NNW 347    4.0     9.2    6 -  8  WNW 305
1/21   8pm   2 -  4    N 351    4.0     8.9    4 -  5  ENE  55
 
1/22   8am   2 -  4    N   2    3.9    10.1    5 -  7    E  84 SUN
1/22   2pm   2 -  4    N   3    4.0     9.6    2 -  3  WSW 245
1/22   8pm   3 -  6  NNE  28    4.3    13.5    4 -  6  NNE  22
 
1/23   8am   4 -  8  NNE  24    5.6    13.4    8 - 11   SE 148 MON
1/23   2pm   4 -  9  NNE  23    5.9    13.3    9 - 13  SSW 194
1/23   8pm   4 -  9  NNE  23    5.8    13.3   11 - 15  SSE 156
 
1/24   8am   3 -  7  NNE  22    4.8    13.1    9 - 13  SSE 160 TUE
1/24   2pm   3 -  7  NNE  22    4.6    13.0   15 - 20  SSW 200
1/24   8pm   3 -  6  NNE  22    4.1    12.7   11 - 15  SSW 193
 
1/25   2am   2 -  5  NNE  22    3.4    12.4    7 -  9  SSW 199 WED
 
Effective Tuesday evening
                      
SHORT TERM FORECAST (THROUGH THURSDAY 1/19):
Highlights: Easing N swell, transitioning to mainly trade windswell.

Ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic today will shift east through mid week. We are watching complex low pressure well NE of the region over the open ATL waters. This is a fast tracking system and will only result in minor amounts of northerly swell that will mix in with trade swell.

We will transition to more of an ENE trade swell through the first half of the week. This will put biggest surf in the water for the N coast. Rincon will see declining surf heights as the swell direction shifts more NE/ENE over the start of the week.

We are mainly looking at ENE trade swell/underlying minor amounts of N swell through Thursday. We will be seeing surf heights trend down and level off as we head through mid week. The N coast region will be the main area that sees surf with Rincon trending down to minor ankle/knee high surf.

Winds: Continued moderate trade winds are expected through Wednesday from the ENE around 11-15kts. There may be a small window of lighter trades first thing but ENE trade winds will be settling in fairly quick through the AM hours. Calm/light offshore AM winds Thursday will shift ENE late AM/early PM with the onset of the trades for the N coast. Rincon will see onshore seabreeze develop late AM/early PM Thursday.

EXTENDED SURF FORECAST (FRIDAY 1/20 AND BEYOND): 
Highlights: Small surf for the back half of the week. Swell moves in over the weekend.

The pattern through mid week over the Atlantic will set up mainly small amounts of ENE trade windswell/underlying NNE swell mix through Friday. Mostly looking at waist high surf then N coast with minor ankle/knee high surf for the Rincon area. Standout N coast spots likely see some chest high sets.

Beyond that we will be watching the development of a low pressure system late this week. Trusted models are in good agreement that broad low pressure will develop north of the island. This is expected to send some northerly swell starting this weekend. Lower to mid period N swell is expected to fill in Saturday and then continue Sunday. A secondary pulse of stronger NNE swell is possible to kick off early next week pending the development the low. Right now though looking at fun zone surf for the weekend with potential for a notch stronger swell to kick off the following work week.
 



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