Friday, September 12, 2008
Invest 91 Update of Fri, 9/12/08, pm
Blake posted earlier today on alt.surfing, a bit exaggerated on the tinyness side, but also with some decent advise about going fishing:
The last pre-GP forecast.
Saturday: dead flat.
Sunday: dead flat
Monday: south winds pick up substantially as a front nears. Possibly some sloppy surf around the right corner.
Tuesday: front pushes through. Not a lot of swell with it. But northerly winds start to kick up later in the day, and by Wednesday there will be northeast windswell
Wednesday: northeast windswell
Thursday-Friday: residual northeast windswell
The high generating the windswell is forecast to stabilize and generate waves for the remainder of the week. Best bet is to hide under a rock until Wednesday, then be ready for surf. However, it looks like a strikeout for swell from the tropics. I recommend bringing fishing poles for this weekend - when it is flat the fish are biting.
-PA
Updated Surf Forecast of Friday, 9/12/08
Winds go offshore overnight and we should still have some surf - need to find the peaks. That we can do!
The storm that used to be known as Josephine is still hanging around. It is not forecast to become a named storm again, but most models are forecasting this storm to track up the Florida and SE coast line. She may just give us some southerly swells.
Griz's original flight itinerary for Saturday, out of San Antonio, connecting in Houston and flying into Norfolk was scratched yesterday by Ike. He was rebooked for Sunday, but as of this morning is now rerouted on Sunday from San Antonio to Newark to Norfolk. He will be getting in late evening. Let's not forget to set aside a nice plate of leftovers.
GuidoPalooza's Blake Memorial Putt Putt Championship
In the event of flatness we shall, in memory of the former surfer, Blake of alt.surfing, institute the GuidoPalooza's Blake Memorial Putt Putt Championship. The Blakstah used to be a hell raising surfer in San Francisco that chastised everyone that didn't like within 5 miles of the beach. He now lives in Augusta, GA, and posts on the usenet golfing group.
A name suggestion that came my way is:
The Blakooksta ASPPGOTY award? (alt.surfing putt putt golfer of the year)
Have a good trip everyone!
Rod Rodgers _\m/
http://rodndtube.com/
Please consider sponsoring me in the "Ride for a Cause" surfing contest,
on Oct 4th, in Virginia Beach. Many thanks!!!
http://www.marchforbabies.org/rodrodgers
Thursday, September 11, 2008
GP Forecast on 9/11/08
Ships Model forecast winds increasing to TS strength over the next few days.
Saturday, September 6, 2008
Long Range GP Prospects as of 9/6/08, PM
The "White Caps" Model
TS Forecast for Guido Week is Downgraded (as of 9/6/08)
Elsewhere in the tropics
-- ____________________________________________________ Rod Rodgers _\m/ http://rodndtube.com/ Please consider sponsoring me in the Ride for a Cause surfing contest, on Oct 4th, in Virginia Beach. Many thanks!!! http://www.marchforbabies.org/rodrodgers
Friday, September 5, 2008
Ike's NOAA WWW3 Track Is a GP Producer
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
GP2K8 TS Update from WeatherUnderground
Josephine*
Tropical Storm Josphine
<http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200810_5day.html?MR=1>
is a long way out to sea, and it will be at least a week before it may
threaten any land areas.
*Elsewhere in the tropics*
The GFS model is forecasting that at least two or three more tropical
waves will move off the coast of Africa over the next ten days and
develop into tropical storms. The NOGAPS model is predicting possible
development near the Yucatan Peninsula 4-6 days from now, either in the
western Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche.
--
____________________________________________________
Rod Rodgers _\m/
http://rodndtube.com/
Please consider sponsoring me in the Ride for a Cause surfing contest, on Oct 4th, in Virginia Beach. Many thanks!!!
http://www.marchforbabies.org/rodrodgers
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Conga Line of 4 on Sept 2, 2008
clipped from tropics.hamweather.com |
Monday, September 1, 2008
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Is That Ike Shaping Up in the Cape Verde Region?
____________________________________________________
Please consider sponsoring me in the Ride for a Cause surfing contest, on Oct 4th, in Virginia Beach. Many thanks!!!
http://www.marchforbabies.org/rodrodgers
Friday, August 29, 2008
Looks What's Coming Our Way!
It's time to get familiar with the names Hanna, Josephine, Ike, and Kyle, because the tropical Atlantic is about to put on a rare burst of very high activity in the coming weeks.
clipped from www.wunderground.com |
Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the computer models forecast the development of at least one additional tropical wave between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands during the coming week. The first candidate is a large circulation located near 18N, 39W, 800 hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. While the circulation of this system is impressive, the system is devoid of any heavy thunderstorm activity, and is surrounded by a large are of dry air to the west and north. Wind shear is a moderate to marginal 10-20 knots in the region, and forecast to remain in the moderate to marginal range for the next few days. NHC is giving this system a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. Some slow development is possible over the next few days, but the system has a better chance 3-5 days from now, when its environment will be moister. Several of the models develop it, and predict the system will be a few hundred miles north of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Monday Tuesday. Like the ocean, the atmosphere also has waves. Large-scale atmospheric waves form over Africa during the African summer monsoon season, track east to west, and emerge over the Atlantic Ocean near the Cape Verde Islands, where they often serve as the nucleus for a powerful Cape Verdes-type hurricane. Well, the African Easterly Wave Factory is exceptionally busy right now, and there are three very impressive looking waves with plenty of spin lined up across the continent (see figure).
The western-most wave, just coming off the coast of Africa today, is particularly impressive. This system has a very large circulation with plenty of spin, and is already developing some concentrated heavy thunderstorms over the waters south of the Cape Verde Islands. This morning's QuikSCAT pass saw winds of 50 mph near the heaviest thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10-20 knots over the storm, and is expected to remain in the low to moderate range the next few days. NHC has given this system a medium (20%-50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The models have been very aggressive developing this system over the past few days, and chances are good that this system will become a large and powerful Cape Verdes-type hurricane next week. It is too early to speculate whether this storm might end up recurving out to sea or not.
The other two waves lined up behind the wave moving off the coast are also likely to be a threat to develop once they move offshore Africa next week. The long-range GFS model develops all three of these waves.
Jeff Masters
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
2008 Conga Line - Early Signs of Formation in Late August
Disturbance 95L east-northeast of Puerto Rico
Elsewhere in the tropics
clipped from www.wunderground.com |
Jeff Masters
Monday, June 30, 2008
Bowie Baysox Game?
clipped from www.baysox.com
|
Friday, June 20, 2008
Monday, March 31, 2008
SR's Forcast as of 3/31/08 am
Time Zone: GMT - 7 hours
-------------------------------------------------------------
SURF SURF DIR SWELL PERIOD WIND WND/DIR
(ft) (deg) (ft) (sec) (kts) (deg)
------- -------- ----- ------ ------- -------
4/2 5am 3 - 7 SSW 206 4.3 13.8 5 - 7 NE 44
4/2 11am 4 - 8 SW 210 4.5 15.9 3 - 5 NNW 346
4/2 5pm 4 - 8 SW 210 4.7 15.8 7 - 10 SW 222
4/3 5am 4 - 8 SW 211 4.9 15.2 5 - 7 NE 47
4/3 11am 4 - 9 SW 211 5.0 15.0 0 - 1 NNW 336
4/3 5pm 4 - 9 SW 211 5.1 14.9 5 - 8 SW 223
4/4 5am 4 - 8 SW 212 5.0 14.5 2 - 4 NNE 25
4/4 11am 4 - 8 SW 212 5.0 14.3 2 - 3 WSW 246
4/4 5pm 4 - 8 SW 212 4.9 14.3 4 - 6 SW 214
4/5 5am 3 - 7 SW 212 4.6 13.9 3 - 4 N 8
4/5 11am 3 - 7 SW 212 4.4 13.6 2 - 4 WNW 297
4/5 5pm 3 - 6 SW 211 4.3 13.5 4 - 6 WNW 286
4/6 5am 3 - 6 SW 210 4.1 13.4 4 - 6 N 352
4/6 11am 3 - 6 SW 210 4.0 13.4 5 - 7 WNW 302
4/6 5pm 3 - 6 SW 210 4.0 13.8 7 - 10 WNW 282
Saturday, March 29, 2008
SR's Forecast onf 3/29/08
-------------------------------------------------------------
SURF SURF DIR SWELL PERIOD WIND WND/DIR
(ft) (deg) (ft) (sec) (kts) (deg)
------- -------- ----- ------ ------- -------
4/1 5pm 3 - 6 SSW 209 3.5 14.7 8 - 11 SW 225
4/2 5am 3 - 7 SW 214 3.8 17.3 8 - 10 NE 37
4/2 11am 3 - 7 SW 212 3.9 16.7 4 - 6 WNW 306
4/2 5pm 4 - 8 SW 213 4.2 16.0 7 - 10 WNW 280
4/3 5am 4 - 8 SW 214 4.5 15.7 8 - 11 ENE 76
4/3 11am 4 - 8 SW 214 4.6 15.3 4 - 6 W 272
4/3 5pm 4 - 8 SW 214 4.5 15.0 4 - 5 SSW 206
4/4 5am 3 - 7 SW 215 4.5 14.8 5 - 7 ENE 70
4/4 11am 3 - 7 SW 215 4.4 14.5 4 - 5 WSW 250
4/4 5pm 3 - 7 SW 215 4.3 14.3 7 - 10 SSW 194
4/5 5am 3 - 6 SW 215 4.1 14.1 2 - 3 ENE 59
4/5 11am 3 - 6 SW 215 3.9 13.7 6 - 8 W 277
Area Weather Forecast:
Wed Apr 02 Isolated T-Storms 96°/72°
Thu Apr 03 PM T-Storms 97°/72°
Fri Apr 04 Scattered T-Storms 96°/72°
Sat Apr 05 Scattered Showers 97°/72°
Sun Apr 06 Mostly Sunny 98°/73°
Mon Apr 07 Scattered T-Storms 97°/73°
SPAC SYNOPSIS: We’ve seen a flurry of intense South Hemi
storms lately with developing lows spinning out from under New Zealand
and tracking towards the Central-South Pacific... Further out; another
strong system developed through the past few days
and sent out another decent SW groundswell (200-220) for April 2-3 with
more head-overhead surf before backing down. Beyond that; the South
Pacific looks to remain cyclonically active as another storm is
currently developing deep in the South Hemi. Therefore, the SW energy
doesn't look to stop for the long-range. Stay posted as this system
unfolds.
Our next forecast update here will be Monday evening at 8 PM.
Friday, March 28, 2008
SR's Forcast as of 3/28/08 am
SPAC SYNOPSIS: We’ve seen a flurry of intense South Hemi storms lately with developing lows spinning out from under New Zealand and tracking towards the Central-South Pacific. A good sized SW swell lines up for the end of the week with fading surf expected for the weekend. Another shot of swell is on tap for the early part of April.
Our current run of SW groundswell (205-215) continues to build through the day on Thursday offering plenty of head-well overhead surf, strongest in the afternoon hours. This SW swell tops out on Friday and we can expect head-double overhead waves. Then SW energy very slowly tapers off through the weekend with head-overhead surf on Saturday dropping into the waist-head+ range for Sunday. Expect this round of SW swell to continue to fade for the early part of next week as well. Expect great conditions in the early mornings the next few days with calm/light offshore flow before the afternoon seabreeze picks up from the SW/SSW.
A system currently coming together in the Central SPAC will result in a decent run of SSW swell (205-215) filling in on Tuesday (April 1st) with head-well overhead surf expected for next Wednesday-Friday (April 2nd-4th). Stay posted as we continue to monitor this storm as it runs its course over the next few days. Further out, the South Pacific looks to remain cyclonically active through the end of March resulting in plenty of surf in the longer range as well. Be sure to check back for the latest updates over the next couple of days as we see continue to watch things unfold.
Our next forecast update here will be Friday evening at 8 PM
Thursday, March 27, 2008
SR's Coming Up
one week before the trip. It is looking "up" wouldn't you say?
SPAC SYNOPSIS: We’ve seen a flurry of intense South
Hemi storms lately with developing lows spinning out
from under New Zealand and tracking towards the
Central-South Pacific. A good sized SW swell lines up
for the end of the week with fading surf expected for
the weekend. Another shot of swell is on tap for the
early part of April.
A system currently coming together in the Central SPAC
will result in a decent run of SSW swell (205-215)
filling in on Tuesday (April 1st) with head-well
overhead surf expected for next Wednesday-Friday
(April 2nd-4th). Stay posted as we continue to monitor
this storm as it runs its course over the next few
days. Further out, the South Pacific looks to remain
cyclonically active through the end of March resulting
in plenty of surf in the longer range as well. Be sure
to check back for the latest updates over the next
couple of days as we see continue to watch things unfold.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Monday, January 21, 2008
PR NW Forecast of 1/21/2008
-------------------------------------------------------------
SURF SURF DIR SWELL PERIOD WIND WND/DIR
(ft) (deg) (ft) (sec) (kts) (deg)
------- -------- ----- ------ ------- -------
1/21 7am 5 - 10 NE 34 6.0 14.7 13 - 17 ENE 72
1/21 1pm 5 - 10 NE 33 6.1 14.4 12 - 16 ENE 79
1/21 7pm 5 - 10 NE 34 6.1 14.3 13 - 17 E 82
1/22 7am 4 - 9 NE 33 5.9 13.1 12 - 17 E 89
1/22 1pm 4 - 8 NE 32 5.6 12.4 8 - 11 E 95
1/22 7pm 4 - 8 NNE 28 5.8 11.9 9 - 13 E 92
1/23 7am 3 - 7 N 3 6.2 10.8 7 - 10 E 97
1/23 1pm 3 - 7 N 1 6.1 10.7 4 - 6 ENE 69
1/23 7pm 3 - 7 N 357 5.8 10.1 7 - 9 E 80
1/24 7am 2 - 5 N 6 5.1 9.2 9 - 13 E 99
1/24 1pm 2 - 5 NNE 10 4.7 9.0 6 - 9 ENE 79
Saturday, January 19, 2008
PR NW Forecast of 1/19/2008
-------------------------------------------------------------
SURF SURF DIR SWELL PERIOD WIND WND/DIR
(ft) (deg) (ft) (sec) (kts) (deg)
------- -------- ----- ------ ------- -------
1/19 7am 3 - 7 N 357 6.3 9.8 12 - 17 E 81
1/19 1pm 3 - 6 N 8 6.1 9.2 11 - 15 ENE 75
1/19 7pm 3 - 6 NNE 19 6.4 9.1 12 - 16 ENE 78
1/20 7am 3 - 6 NNE 22 5.9 9.1 8 - 12 E 93
1/20 1pm 3 - 6 NNE 26 5.8 9.0 7 - 10 E 89
1/20 7pm 4 - 8 NNE 22 5.7 11.9 12 - 16 ENE 75
1/21 7am 5 - 10 NE 34 5.8 14.7 10 - 14 ENE 67
1/21 1pm 5 - 10 NE 33 5.9 14.4 11 - 16 ENE 60
1/21 7pm 5 - 10 NE 34 6.1 14.3 13 - 18 ENE 68
1/22 7am 5 - 10 NE 33 6.4 13.1 16 - 22 E 81
1/22 1pm 4 - 9 NE 32 6.5 12.4 8 - 12 ENE 77
1/22 7pm 4 - 9 NNE 25 6.6 11.8 14 - 19 E 88
1/23 7am 4 - 8 N 3 6.7 10.8 10 - 14 E 89
1/23 1pm 4 - 8 N 358 6.4 10.4 9 - 12 E 98
1/23 7pm 3 - 6 N 7 5.9 9.4 8 - 11 ENE 79
1/24 1am 3 - 6 NNE 10 5.6 9.1 11 - 15 ENE 72
1/24 7am 2 - 5 NNE 13 5.4 8.9 11 - 15 E 96
Friday, January 18, 2008
PR NW Forecast of 1/18/2008
-------------------------------------------------------------
SURF SURF DIR SWELL PERIOD WIND WND/DIR
(ft) (deg) (ft) (sec) (kts) (deg)
------- -------- ----- ------ ------- -------
It was 4-7' at my spots this morning.
1/18 7am 5 - 10 N 357 7.1 11.8 14 - 20 ENE 78
1/18 1pm 4 - 9 N 355 7.1 11.7 11 - 15 ENE 72
1/18 7pm 4 - 9 N 353 7.0 11.0 14 - 19 ENE 70
1/19 7am 3 - 7 N 357 6.6 9.8 12 - 16 E 85
1/19 1pm 3 - 6 NNE 11 6.3 9.0 9 - 12 E 82
1/19 7pm 3 - 6 NNE 17 6.2 9.1 12 - 16 ENE 77
1/20 7am 3 - 6 NNE 20 6.0 9.2 11 - 15 E 85
1/20 1pm 4 - 8 NNE 22 5.7 11.9 8 - 10 E 87
1/20 7pm 3 - 7 NNE 22 5.4 11.9 7 - 9 ENE 78
1/21 7am 5 - 10 NE 34 5.8 14.6 12 - 16 ENE 57
1/21 1pm 5 - 10 NE 33 6.0 14.4 13 - 18 ENE 59
1/21 7pm 5 - 10 NE 34 6.0 14.2 12 - 17 ENE 64
1/22 7am 4 - 9 NE 33 6.3 13.0 15 - 20 ENE 76
1/22 1pm 4 - 9 NE 32 6.4 12.3 11 - 15 ENE 79
1/22 7pm 4 - 8 NE 30 6.2 11.8 11 - 15 E 84
1/23 7am 4 - 8 N 2 6.9 10.8 13 - 17 ENE 78
1/23 1pm 4 - 8 N 356 6.7 10.0 7 - 9 ENE 76
1/23 7pm 3 - 7 N 5 6.3 9.3 10 - 14 E 90
1/24 7am 3 - 6 NNE 10 6.1 9.1 13 - 18 E 81
1/24 1pm 3 - 6 NNE 13 6.1 8.9 9 - 12 E 82
Thursday, January 17, 2008
PR NW Forecast of 1/17/2008
SURF SURF DIR SWELL PERIOD WIND WND/DIR
(ft) (deg) (ft) (sec) (kts) (deg)
------- -------- ----- ------ ------- -------
1/17 1pm 2 - 5 NNE 12 5.3 9.2 12 - 16 ENE 63
1/17 7pm 3 - 6 N 7 5.5 9.7 12 - 17 ENE 75
1/18 7am 4 - 9 N 357 6.5 11.8 13 - 18 ENE 74
1/18 1pm 4 - 9 N 355 6.7 11.6 11 - 15 E 80
1/18 7pm 4 - 8 N 353 6.5 11.0 11 - 15 ENE 69
1/19 7am 3 - 7 N 357 6.2 9.8 13 - 17 E 88
1/19 1pm 3 - 6 N 9 5.8 9.1 8 - 11 E 85
1/19 7pm 3 - 6 NNE 22 5.7 9.1 10 - 13 E 82
1/20 7am 3 - 6 NNE 27 5.5 9.1 10 - 13 E 83
1/20 1pm 2 - 5 NNE 29 5.3 9.1 10 - 14 ENE 75
1/20 7pm 3 - 7 NNE 22 5.3 12.0 12 - 16 ENE 67
1/21 7am 5 - 11 NE 33 6.4 15.2 14 - 20 ENE 69
1/21 1pm 5 - 11 NE 33 6.7 14.6 14 - 20 ENE 69
1/21 7pm 5 - 11 NE 34 6.9 14.3 14 - 20 ENE 69
1/22 7am 5 - 10 NE 32 6.8 13.2 13 - 18 E 83
1/22 1pm 5 - 10 NNE 19 7.3 12.1 13 - 18 ENE 74
1/22 7pm 5 - 10 NNE 11 7.5 11.7 13 - 18 ENE 74
1/23 7am 4 - 9 N 0 7.4 11.2 14 - 19 ENE 73
1/23 1pm 3 - 7 NNE 16 7.3 9.1 12 - 17 ENE 77
1/23 7pm 3 - 7 NNE 27 7.1 9.0 12 - 16 E 86
1/24 1am 3 - 7 NNE 25 6.7 8.9 13 - 18 ENE 73
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
PRNW Forecast of 1/16/2008
SURF SURF DIR SWELL PERIOD WIND WND/DIR
(ft) (deg) (ft) (sec) (kts) (deg)
------- -------- ----- ------ ------- -------
1/17 7am 1 - 2 ENE 50 4.7 5.1 14 - 19 ENE 63
1/17 1pm 2 - 5 NNE 11 5.2 9.2 11 - 15 ENE 54
1/17 7pm 3 - 6 N 7 5.5 9.6 13 - 17 ENE 73
1/18 7am 4 - 9 N 357 6.8 11.8 14 - 20 ENE 79
1/18 1pm 4 - 9 N 355 6.8 11.6 10 - 14 ENE 65
1/18 7pm 4 - 9 N 353 6.9 11.0 14 - 19 ENE 74
1/19 7am 3 - 7 N 359 6.2 9.7 12 - 16 E 83
1/19 1pm 3 - 6 NNE 17 5.8 9.1 9 - 12 ENE 68
1/19 7pm 3 - 6 NNE 22 5.7 9.3 12 - 16 E 91
1/20 7am 2 - 5 NNE 23 5.2 9.2 11 - 15 ENE 74
1/20 1pm 2 - 5 NNE 25 5.3 9.0 12 - 16 ENE 55
1/20 7pm 4 - 8 NNE 22 5.5 12.1 12 - 16 ENE 59
1/21 7am 5 - 11 NE 34 6.4 15.4 15 - 20 ENE 64
1/21 1pm 6 - 12 NE 33 6.7 15.1 13 - 18 ENE 66
1/21 7pm 6 - 12 NE 33 7.0 14.4 14 - 20 ENE 68
1/22 7am 5 - 11 NE 31 7.2 13.4 14 - 20 ENE 70
1/22 1pm 5 - 10 N 9 7.3 12.2 14 - 19 E 87
1/22 7pm 5 - 11 N 1 7.9 12.0 14 - 19 ENE 70
1/23 7am 4 - 9 N 0 6.9 11.8 10 - 14 E 90
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
PR NW Forecast of 1/15/2008
SURF SURF DIR SWELL PERIOD WIND WND/DIR
(ft) (deg) (ft) (sec) (kts) (deg)
------- -------- ----- ------ ------- -------
1/17 7am 2 - 5 NE 49 4.4 9.7 12 - 16 ENE 64
1/17 1pm 2 - 5 NNE 11 4.8 9.2 12 - 17 ENE 69
1/17 7pm 3 - 6 N 9 5.2 9.6 13 - 18 ENE 63
1/18 7am 3 - 7 N 359 6.4 10.2 14 - 19 ENE 78
1/18 1pm 4 - 9 N 355 6.7 11.3 12 - 16 E 81
1/18 7pm 4 - 8 N 354 6.7 11.0 13 - 18 ENE 76
1/19 7am 3 - 7 N 359 6.2 9.6 12 - 16 ENE 78
1/19 1pm 3 - 6 NNE 12 5.8 9.1 9 - 12 ENE 64
1/19 7pm 3 - 6 NNE 15 5.9 8.9 11 - 16 ENE 73
1/20 7am 3 - 7 NNE 20 5.6 11.8 9 - 13 E 83
1/20 1pm 3 - 7 NNE 21 5.2 11.7 7 - 10 E 83
1/20 7pm 3 - 7 NNE 22 5.1 12.0 9 - 13 ENE 55
1/21 7am 3 - 6 NNE 22 5.0 11.2 10 - 14 ENE 68
1/21 1pm 3 - 6 NNE 22 4.9 10.9 8 - 11 ENE 70
1/21 7pm 4 - 8 NE 34 5.1 13.0 14 - 19 ENE 66