The long range pre-trip forecast. The SPAC source of our swells has been running kind of slow under a lingering La Niña influence, but it appears to be emerging from its coma. As shown below the near-term is abnormally small, but towards the end of the forecast range back-to-back swells emerge in the desired periodicities and size. The typical Papagayos are blowing and the next couple of days even show the inverted strong overnight winds than the daytime winds.
Now, in tabular form the longer range data forecast.
Central America Premium Analysis
The Bottom Line
- Swell Trend: SSW swell builds next week
- Watch Out For: Substantial tide swings each day; deep early AM highs, PM lows
- Other Tidbits: Late month looks promising for larger SPAC swell
Saturday and Sunday, March 20th-21st: 2-3’ waves from blend of SSW swells. Waves over the weekend will be pretty small — mainly hanging in the knee to thigh-high zone thanks to overlapping SSW swells — standouts see waist-high sets.
Monday, March 22nd: 3-4′ waves from building SSW swell. Mainly waist to chest-high waves will persist for better exposures as a new swell moves in — top spots pull in occasional shoulder-high sets through the afternoon/evening.
Winds/weather: Typical wind pattern persists.
El Salvador: Light+ to locally more ENE flow for the mornings, then shifting to more moderate onshore, S to SW’erly wind in the afternoons for most regions.
Nicaragua: Persistent offshore flow for southernmost areas holds the next few days — strongest in the mornings. Northern Nica sees a lighter version of the offshore winds in the mornings, turning to a light+ to locally moderate afternoon sea breeze.
Costa Rica: Northernmost CR sees steady offshore wind persist with breaks from Playa Negra south seeing an afternoon seabreeze develop each day. Central and Southern CR look to see a diurnal pattern over the next few days — with calm to light offshore wind in the mornings, followed by light+/locally more onshore flow each afternoon.
Long Term Forecast Analysis (Tuesday, March 23rd and Beyond)
SPAC Overview:
That new Southern Hemi swell that moved in Monday, looks good for chest to shoulder-high waves as it peaks Tuesday into Wednesday morning next week as top spots pull in occasional head-high sets.
The 25th-27th should see some reinforcing SSW swell move in to maintain waist to shoulder-high surf with head-high sets at top exposures. Then, the 28th through the 2nd-3rd of April is slated to see an even larger run of back t- back of SSW swells move in and top out with more consistent head-high to overhead surf with sets potentially getting into the 2-3’+ overhead zone. [my emphasis] These last two pulses will actually be developing over the next several days, so stay tuned for updates.
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