CRNW 2017-0302 (Thu am) Forecast

The latest forecast indicates that the double digit swell will arrive and dissipate a day or so earlier than previous forecasts. So... early baptism by fire and thunder. Overall it appears we will have a steady dose of ridable surf (allowing for tide and wind variables). Recent forecasts and reports also indicate a predominance of offshore winds in the first half of the day in the northern Guanacaste region.

  Model Cycle: 2017 MAR 02 06Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 6 hours              
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             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
3/2    6am   3 -  7   SW 214    4.3    13.6   15 - 21  ENE  51
3/2   12pm   3 -  7   SW 213    3.8    16.4    3 -  4  NNE  25
3/2    6pm   3 -  7   SW 214    3.8    15.6    5 -  8  ENE  77
 
3/3    6am   5 - 10   SW 212    5.6    15.1   18 - 25  ENE  50
3/3   12pm   4 -  8   SW 213    4.9    14.4   11 - 15  ENE  51
3/3    6pm   3 -  7   SW 212    4.2    14.3   11 - 15  ENE  61
 
3/4    6am   4 -  8   SW 213    5.5    13.5   18 - 24  ENE  52
3/4   12pm   5 - 11  SSW 206    5.6    16.6   18 - 24  ENE  52
3/4    6pm   5 - 11  SSW 200    5.8    16.3   19 - 26  ENE  57
 
3/5    6am   5 - 10  SSW 198    5.7    15.2   17 - 24  ENE  51
3/5   12pm   4 -  8  SSW 203    4.8    14.6    9 - 13   NE  47
3/5    6pm   3 -  6  SSW 200    4.0    14.3    6 -  9  ENE  77
 
3/6    6am   3 -  7  SSW 202    4.7    13.6   14 - 19  ENE  51
3/6   12pm   3 -  7  SSW 197    4.3    13.5    5 -  7  ENE  56
3/6    6pm   3 -  6  SSW 194    3.8    13.3    5 -  8   SE 149
 
3/7    6am   3 -  6  SSW 193    4.4    12.9   15 - 20  ENE  56
3/7   12pm   2 -  5  SSW 192    3.9    12.7    2 -  3  ENE  53
3/7    6pm   2 -  5  SSW 193    3.7    12.5    4 -  6  SSE 162
 
3/8    6am   3 -  6  SSW 196    4.3    12.3   14 - 19   NE  48
3/8   12pm   4 -  8   SW 211    4.4    16.4    8 - 12   NE  33
3/8    6pm   4 -  8   SW 214    4.3    16.3   13 - 17  ENE  74
 
3/9   12am   4 -  9   SW 210    5.0    15.6   17 - 23  ENE  50

Effective Wednesday evening

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS 

• Fun SSW swell Fri-Sun
• Best winds/conditions in AM hours
• More fun size swell around the 11th-15th 

SHORT TERM FORECAST: (through Monday, March 6th)                        

South Pacific: Back to back SSW swells (210-190) will will build on Friday and hold over the weekend, setting up more fun size surf that should be a notch or two above the swell we have seen the past couple days. Satellite data and the Chile Buoy indicate this run of swell will be in line with, or even slightly better, than current swell model guidance.

Look for chest-shoulder occ. head high surf to build in through the day on Friday at the better breaks, while standout spots see some slightly larger sets. That surf holds through the weekend with more chest-head high surf at exposures and sets running slightly overhead at standout spots. Monday will see a slow easing trend.

Wind/Weather: A diurnal pattern prevails across much of Costa Rica through next few days. Mornings will start with light/variable to light offshore flow, winds trending onshore by the middle of each day before a light to moderate onshore sea-breeze develops in the afternoons.

For northernmost CR, look for steady and breezy offshore flow to persist for the second half of the week and likely through the weekend. Note - winds veer onshore in the afternoon around Playa Grande and Playa Negra.

EXTENDED FORECAST: (Tuesday, March 7th, and beyond)   
       
South Pacific: While there is still nothing major on the radar, it does look likely that we'll see a continuation of fun size, or slightly better, surf for the middle part of March. Current model guidance points to a series of SW to SSW swells from the 11th-16th that look similar in size to what we expect over the coming weekend (details above), possibly a bit better.

There is decent model agreement on the size/strength/track of the storms that will create these swells (and overall pattern in the SPAC), so we're medium confidence of at least fun size surf (chest-head high at the good breaks). Stay tuned, we'll refine details in the next couple days.