CRNW 2017-0311 (Sat) Forecast & Report

Still hours away from paddling out, low has transitioned to incoming tide, but it looks like it will be bigger today. I may need a day off to focus for rest of the week. The table below shows several swells in the 16-17 sec range.

Dave had a rough evening last night not even finishing dinner. He is feeling better today (Saturday) but will not go out.  With plenty of swell coming our way I may take a pass and let my body heal and re-energize for rest of the trip.

Decided to take the plunge around noon. As I sat at the water's edge putting on my fin sox and swim fins it was a sunny, beautiful light offshore wind with the near shore waves breaking nicely. By the time I had paddled out to The Rock the wind was blowing hard on-shore and big chunks of chop and whitecapping everywhere. All in 15 minutes. Two rides and went in!  I should have gone out an hour earlier. Dunce cap for me!

  Model Cycle: 2017 MAR 11 06Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 6 hours              
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
3/11  12am   3 -  6   SW 216    3.9    13.5   14 - 20  ENE  60 SAT
3/11   6am   3 -  7   SW 217    4.6    13.5   14 - 20  ENE  58
3/11  12pm   4 -  8  SSW 194    4.1    17.5    5 -  7  WSW 231
3/11   6pm   3 -  7  SSW 196    4.0    16.4    6 -  9   SW 217
 
3/12   6am   3 -  7  SSW 199    4.2    15.3   11 - 16  ENE  53 SUN
3/12  12pm   3 -  7  SSW 200    4.2    14.6    7 -  9  WSW 233
3/12   6pm   3 -  6  SSW 201    4.1    14.3    7 -  9  SSW 193
 
3/13   6am   4 -  8   SW 219    3.8    17.8    8 - 11  NNE  24 MON
3/13  12pm   4 -  8   SW 218    3.8    17.6    8 - 11    W 271
3/13   6pm   4 -  8   SW 218    4.0    16.7    7 - 10  SSW 193
 
3/14   6am   3 -  7   SW 218    3.7    16.4    8 - 11  NNE  27 TUE
3/14  12pm   3 -  7   SW 218    3.8    15.6    9 - 12  WNW 300
3/14   6pm   3 -  7   SW 218    4.2    15.4    2 -  3  ESE 113
 
3/15   6am   3 -  7   SW 219    4.3    14.8   13 - 18   NE  43 WED
3/15  12pm   3 -  7   SW 220    4.2    14.5    5 -  7    N 352
3/15   6pm   3 -  6   SW 221    4.0    14.3    8 - 11  SSE 152
 
3/16   6am   3 -  7   SW 221    4.7    14.1   16 - 21   NE  45 THU
3/16  12pm   3 -  6   SW 221    4.3    13.6    4 -  5    N   1
3/16   6pm   3 -  6   SW 219    4.0    13.5   10 - 14    S 177
 
3/17   6am   3 -  6   SW 215    4.4    13.2   14 - 20  ENE  55 FRI
3/17  12pm   2 -  5   SW 215    3.8    12.8    6 -  8   SW 212
3/17   6pm   3 -  6   SW 220    3.6    15.5    7 -  9  SSW 198
 
3/18  12am   2 -  5   SW 219    3.3    15.2    8 - 12   NE  37 SAT

Effective Friday evening 

       FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS 

• Fun surf Sat-Mon
• Light/favorable AM winds
• Fun to mid size surf mid to late month

SHORT TERM FORECAST: (through Monday, March 13th)                        

South Pacific: We'll see a mix of southerly swells over the weekend and into early next week, which will keep fun size surf rolling in.

SW swell (220-210 degrees) that filled in today (Fri) above forecast will continue into Saturday as new SSW swell (205-190) gradually fills in. Look for the better breaks to see surf in the chest-shoulder occ. head high range, as standout spots pick up sets running slightly overhead.

Similar size surf prevails Sunday and into Monday as the SSW swell becomes the dominant source of surf and the SW swell trends to smaller leftovers. Exposed breaks see surf in the chest-shoulder occ. head high range, with a few larger sets at standout spots.

Wind/Weather: A diurnal pattern continues across most of Costa Rica through the next several days. Mornings will start with light/variable to locally light offshore flow, with winds trending onshore by the mid to late morning. Then a light to moderate onshore sea-breeze develops in the afternoons, with a clean up in some areas around sunset.

For northernmost CR (north of Playa Grande), look for moderate offshore flow to prevail over the next few days.

EXTENDED FORECAST: (Tuesday, March 14th, and beyond) 
    
South Pacific: As the weekend swell winds down early next week, we'll see a new SW swell (225-205) fill in from a fairly string, but distant, storm near New Zealand several days ago. Look for this new swell to gradually build on Monday, with a peak in size Tue-Wed before easing on Thursday. While the distant storm/source will likely make for a lully swell, more chest-head high surf looks likely Tue-Wed, with sets puhsing into the overhead range (possibly 1-2' feet overhead) at standout spots. Stay tuned, we'll refine details in Monday's forecast.

Beyond that, our next swell of note is lining up fro the 19th-21st, from a storm now several hundred miles east-southeast of New Zealand. So far it has lived up to model guidance and appears to be in the same size class as the swell discussed directly above.

Even further out, the final 7-10 days of the month look likely to remain active. While there is some uncertainty on exact details, there is a strong chance that we'll continue to see at least fun size surf (chest-head high) and a moderate chance of medium size surf (up to a couple feet overhead at good spots). We'll be able to firm up details as we see these storms come together, so look for more info during the next week.