Model Cycle: 2015 FEB 20 18Z
Time Zone: GMT - 7 hours
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SURF SURF DIR SEAS PERIOD WIND WND/DIR
(ft) (deg) (ft) (sec) (kts) (deg)
------- -------- ----- ------ ------- -------
2/20 11am 4 - 9 SW 211 4.6 16.2 11 - 15 NNE 21
2/20 5pm 5 - 10 SW 212 5.4 15.7 16 - 22 NE 38
2/21 5am 4 - 8 ESE 123 6.7 10.2 12 - 17 ENE 71
2/21 11am 5 - 10 SSW 209 5.9 14.6 6 - 8 NE 45
2/21 5pm 4 - 8 SSW 209 4.8 14.4 9 - 12 ENE 55
2/22 5am 4 - 9 SW 211 5.0 15.1 13 - 18 ENE 59
2/22 11am 4 - 8 SW 227 4.8 15.5 7 - 10 ENE 65
2/22 5pm 4 - 8 SW 216 4.7 15.3 5 - 7 ESE 109
2/23 5am 4 - 8 SW 218 5.0 14.3 15 - 21 ENE 61
2/23 11am 3 - 7 SW 228 4.6 13.8 10 - 13 ENE 64
2/23 5pm 3 - 7 SW 220 4.9 13.5 9 - 12 ENE 72
2/24 5am 3 - 7 SW 219 4.9 12.8 15 - 20 ENE 58
2/24 11am 3 - 6 SW 213 4.2 12.6 6 - 8 ENE 65
2/24 5pm 3 - 6 SSW 204 4.1 12.4 4 - 6 SE 140
2/25 5am 2 - 5 SSW 203 3.7 11.9 11 - 15 ENE 54
2/25 11am 2 - 5 SSW 197 3.6 11.7 1 - 2 NNW 340
2/25 5pm 3 - 6 SW 224 3.5 16.4 7 - 10 S 189
2/26 5am 2 - 5 SW 222 3.2 15.4 6 - 8 ENE 52
2/26 11am 2 - 5 SW 221 3.2 15.0 6 - 8 WNW 292
2/26 5pm 2 - 5 SW 221 3.3 14.5 7 - 9 SSW 200
2/27 5am 3 - 6 SW 221 3.6 14.1 11 - 15 ENE 53
2/27 11am 3 - 6 SW 220 4.0 13.7 3 - 5 NE 43
SolSpot Update of Friday Evening, Feb 20th, 2015. Next update in one week.
Long-Range Surf forecast Central America and Mainland Mexico
South Pacific Swell Forecast
The SPAC looks like it is starting to drop the clutch and switch gears into a spring-mode. We already have a number of decent sized S-SW swells that will be arriving over the next week but it is the next set of storms that have some real swell-making potential.
The area of the SPAC that is really starting to pick up is the stretch of water to the SE-ESE of New Zealand. This area has been where our current swells were initially kicked off and it looks like the next set of storms will set the stage for our bigger swell. A lot of this increasing activity is actually being caused by some of the tropical energy hitting Australia…these cyclones, while good swell generators for Oz, are breaking up as they near the coast and all of the latent-heat energy is being pushed southward into the cooler high-latitude storm track.
You can really see this new storm start to coalesce around 4-5 days into the forecast…we see the relatively mellow system go through an intensification/rebuilding phase. It will shorten up the extended run of fetch that moved it into this position, but in the process it will strengthen the core wind speeds and change direction so that it is moving more NNE (right toward our region).
Current forecasts have this storm holding together for a couple more days after it hits its peak intensity…and better yet it continues to drift NE, which means a lot of the good swell-producing winds will be aimed toward the West Coast and Baja…but with the majority of the energy focused on Mainland Mexico and Central America.
So what does this new storm mean for us surfwise? From the look of it…we will be seeing a 4-5’ deepwater swell with swell-periods @ 18-20 seconds starting to arrive around March 2…but with the peak hitting March 3-4. Surfwise we would see consistent shoulder-overhead+ surf for most of the average S-SSW facing (180-200) beaches with some sets going a few feet overhead at times. The best long-period deepwater spots would have more consistent overhead+ surf and waves going several feet overhead, (possibly bigger) when the biggest sets hit. Hopefully the SPAC can scrape up a few more storms like this so that we can have a stellar spring.
The Premier Surf Forecasting Source
Forecast of Friday afternoon, Feb 20th, 2015
SHORT TERM FORECAST (through Tuesday, February 24th):
Highlights: Mid size SSW swell prevails over the weekend before slowly trending down early next week. Small to locally fun size NW swell moves in early next week.
South Pacific Swell: SSW swell (210-195) that was slowly building today (on top of older SSW swell) will fill in further on Saturday, with reinforcements late Sunday and Monday to keep the surf up. Look for shoulder-head high+ surf Saturday through Monday at well exposed breaks, while good spots are 1-2' overhead on sets. Those waves then trend down on Tuesday.
Wind/Weather: Most areas through central and southern Costa Rica will see a diurnal wind pattern, with calm to locally light offshore flow for the early to mid mornings, before a moderate onshore sea-breeze gradually develops into the afternoon. NOTE - The wind will back off into the evenings for a glass-off for many locations before dark, especially the more sheltered/tucked away spots.
For northern Costa Rica look moderate to locally strong offshore flow over the weekend (strongest offshore flow for the northern half of the Nicoya Peninsula towards the Nicaragua border, lighter for the southern end).
EXTENDED FORECAST (Wednesday, February 25th, and beyond):
Highlights: Modest SW swell for around the 26th-28th, with small NW swell about the same time. A more significant SSW swell is possible for early March.
South Pacific Swell: The next Southern Hemi swell of note is on the radar for around the 26th-28th, from recent storm activity near New Zealand. This will not be a major swell, but fun waist-shoulder high surf certainly looks possible at the better breaks.
Going into the long range, confidence is slowly increasing that a more significant series of SSW swells could move in for the beginning of March, around the 3rd-8th. We're low confidence on specific details, but overhead surf does look very possible if the storms behave as currently forecast. Stay tuned, we'll have more details in the next few days as we see these storms develop.
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