Monday, February 23, 2015

CRNW Forecast of Mon, 2015-0223pm

Not surprisingly the swell forecast for our first 5 days has declined from the large 10-12 ft. numbers but are still in a healthy 5 - 10 ft range, largest on Sat and Sun of our arrival dates. The storm formation and track is still immature so subject to change (usually mean decreasing a bit in size), but I remain optimistic.

Buoyweather is still outside our dates of interest.
  Model Cycle: 2015 FEB 23 18Z         
  Time Zone: GMT - 6 hours             
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
2/23  12pm   4 -  8  WSW 230    5.1    13.8   16 - 22  ENE  52
2/23   6pm   3 -  6   SW 223    4.3    13.5   11 - 14  ENE  63

2/24   6am   4 -  8   SW 221    5.4    12.8   17 - 23  ENE  52
2/24  12pm   3 -  6   SW 215    4.5    12.6    5 -  6  ESE 118
2/24   6pm   2 -  5  SSW 206    4.0    12.4    8 - 11   SW 218

2/25   6am   2 -  5  SSW 205    3.6    11.8   11 - 14  ENE  54
2/25  12pm   2 -  4  SSW 198    3.4    11.6    6 -  8   SW 211
2/25   6pm   3 -  6   SW 222    3.3    16.4    6 -  8   SW 225

2/26   6am   2 -  5   SW 222    3.1    15.4    7 -  9   NE  40
2/26  12pm   2 -  5   SW 218    3.1    15.0    5 -  7    W 265
2/26   6pm   2 -  5   SW 221    3.1    14.5    2 -  3    W 260

2/27   6am   2 -  5   SW 227    3.1    14.1    5 -  7  NNE  23
2/27  12pm   2 -  5   SW 221    3.2    13.7    8 - 10  WNW 287
2/27   6pm   2 -  5   SW 223    3.6    13.7    9 - 12   SW 213

2/28   6am   4 -  8   SW 213    4.4    16.4   15 - 21  ENE  54
2/28  12pm   4 -  8   SW 211    4.2    16.4    7 -  9  ENE  52
2/28   6pm   3 -  7   SW 218    3.8    15.5    6 -  8    S 186

3/1    6am   4 -  8   SW 212    4.6    15.4   16 - 22  ENE  51
3/1   12pm   3 -  7   SW 217    4.0    14.9    4 -  6  ESE 114
3/1    6pm   3 -  6   SW 214    3.9    14.4    7 - 10   SW 214

3/2    6am   5 - 11   SW 215    4.9    20.4   16 - 22  ENE  51
3/2   12pm   4 -  9   SW 216    4.1    19.1    3 -  4  ESE 121



Forecast of Mon, 2015-0223pm

SHORT TERM FORECAST (through Friday, February 27th):
Highlights: Mid size SSW swell mix continues through the work week. Small to locally fun size NW swell shows at well exposed spots.

South Pacific Swell: Old SSW swell (210-195) eases on Tuesday but is still good for waist-head high waves at the better breaks as top spots hit a foot overhead on sets. Wednesday winds down into the waist-shoulder-head high range for well exposed areas. New shot of fun zone SW swell joins in by the second half of the week, for waist-chest-shoulder high surf on Thursday and Friday.

Wind/Weather: Most areas through central and southern Costa Rica will see a diurnal wind pattern, with calm to locally light offshore flow for the early to mid mornings, before a moderate onshore sea-breeze gradually develops into the afternoon. For northern Costa Rica look moderate to locally strong offshore flow on Tuesday (strongest offshore flow for the northern half of the Nicoya Peninsula towards the Nicaragua border, lighter for the southern end). The offshores ease mid week.

EXTENDED FORECAST (Saturday, February 28th, and beyond):
Highlights: Solid Southern Hemi setting up for early next week.
 

South Pacific Swell: SSW swell holds on Saturday with for waist-shoulder high surf at the better breaks and plus sets for standouts. Those waves back down by Sunday. There is a good looking fetch being set up in the central SPAC now and that storm is scheduled to last for a few more days as it slides further east towards South America. Under that scenario, a healthy, long-period SSW(210-200) Southern Hemi swell starts to fill in next Monday, March 2nd, steadily builds in through Tuesday, then tops out on Wednesday with consistent overhead waves at lots of exposed spots. That surf then gradually eases through the second half of the upcoming week. Stay tuned for the latest updates on this still developing storm/swell system.  

The second table below is our focal point. 

 
 
 

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