Model Cycle: 2016 MAY 13 18Z
Time Zone: GMT - 6 hours
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SURF SURF DIR SEAS PERIOD WIND WND/DIR
(ft) (deg) (ft) (sec) (kts) (deg)
------- -------- ----- ------ ------- -------
5/13 12pm 4 - 8 SW 219 4.8 14.3 9 - 13 SSW 209
5/13 6pm 3 - 7 SW 218 4.5 14.2 5 - 7 SSW 207
5/14 6am 3 - 7 SW 219 4.5 13.6 12 - 17 NE 44
5/14 12pm 3 - 7 SW 218 4.5 13.8 3 - 4 N 358
5/14 6pm 3 - 7 SW 218 4.4 13.9 9 - 12 SSW 195
5/15 6am 3 - 6 SW 220 4.4 13.3 11 - 15 ENE 52
5/15 12pm 5 - 10 SW 214 4.5 18.7 3 - 4 WSW 250
5/15 6pm 4 - 9 SW 215 4.4 17.7 6 - 9 SSW 197
5/16 6am 4 - 8 SW 215 4.3 16.6 8 - 10 NNE 27
5/16 12pm 4 - 8 SW 213 4.4 16.4 4 - 5 WSW 237
5/16 6pm 3 - 7 SW 213 4.3 15.6 5 - 6 SSE 168
5/17 6am 3 - 7 SW 213 4.0 15.2 6 - 9 ENE 76
5/17 12pm 3 - 6 SW 212 3.9 14.5 5 - 7 SW 212
5/17 6pm 3 - 6 SW 213 3.8 14.4 4 - 6 S 176
5/18 6am 3 - 6 SW 214 3.8 14.3 6 - 9 NNE 28
5/18 12pm 4 - 8 SW 214 4.0 16.7 5 - 6 W 275
5/18 6pm 4 - 8 SW 216 4.1 17.2 4 - 6 SW 226
5/19 6am 4 - 8 SW 219 4.3 16.2 5 - 8 ENE 78
5/19 12pm 4 - 8 SW 218 4.4 16.0 3 - 4 WSW 244
5/19 6pm 4 - 8 SW 219 4.4 15.4 5 - 7 SW 214
5/20 6am 3 - 7 SW 218 4.2 14.9 4 - 6 E 94
5/20 12pm 3 - 6 SW 218 4.0 14.5 4 - 6 SSW 198
SHORT TERM FORECAST (through Tuesday, May 17th)Highlights: Fun size, partially shadowed SW swell builds eases over the weekend. A larger SW/SSW swell builds in and peaks early next week.
South Pacific Swell: Partially shadowed (by Galapagos) SW swell (230-210) will continue over the weekend, gradually trending down. Look for chest-shoulder occ. head high range surf on Saturday, as standout spots through North CR are still a bit overhead.
The next SW swell (220-210) on the radar will build in and peak on Monday and into Tuesday (with long period forerunners on the rise throughout the day on Sunday, mixing with above mentioned, fading swell). This is from a storm that took a favorable track toward Central America a few days, although the Galapagos Islands will likely again take a bite of the size and consistency.
At this point we expect to see shoulder-head high surf at the better breaks Sunday afternoon through Tuesday, with top spots through North CR up to a couple feet overhead on sets Monday and Tuesday. Those waves will then trend down on Wednesday.
Wind/Weather: Diurnal wind pattern for the weekend and into early next week for Central and South CR with wind ranging from light/variable to light offshore in the early to mid mornings. A moderate onshore seabreeze gradually develops over the later morning/afternoon.
For North CR look for morning offshore flow to range from moderate to locally breezy over the weekend. The central and southern part of the Guanacaste Peninsula will a sea breeze develop for the mid to late morning and afternoon, while breaks in far north CR (near the Nica border) see all day offshore flow.
Most of the region will see partly cloudy skies each day. Scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible and keep in mind that passing or nearby showers and thunderstorms can temporarily affect/change local wind conditions.
EXTENDED FORECAST (Wednesday, May 18th, and beyond) Highlights: Another mid size SW/SSW swell will build in for the 19th-20th. At this point, most of the week of the 23rd looks fairly slow, with the last few days of the month potentially heating back up a bit.
South Pacific Swell: Another fun to mid size SW swell (220-210) will build in starting on Wednesday the 18th, although the bulk of the swell looks likely to arrive for Thur/Fri. At this point the swell looks a little smaller than what we expect for Mon/Tue (see details in short term section, above). Stay tuned, we'll have more refined details in our next update on Monday.
Beyond that, the above swell will fade through the weekend of the 21st-22nd and,a this point, the first couple days of the week of the 23rd look pretty slow. Long range guidance points to more fun size SW/SSW swell around the last few days of the month, although we're low confidence on specific details this far out.
SolSpot:
Overlapping SSW pulses keep the surf going through next week
Central America and Mainland Mexico Short-Range Surf Forecast
SSW (205-215) has peaked and will slowly ease through the start of the weekend. No worries though, we’ve got a couple more swells on their way, arriving from the SSW (205-215) Sunday and late Tuesday. This should mean a healthy run of moderate to plus sized surf through the next week. Read more for details.
http://solspot.com/southern-mexico-7-day-detailed-swell-forecast/
SSW (205-215) currently in the water is bringing chest to overhead+ surf to standouts today. A few bigger set waves in the range of a couple feet overhead to several feet overhead are possible at magnets though. Size will ease a little bit Saturday with some addition SW (210-220) in the background.
Sunday the next SSW (205-215) arrives with 19 to 20 second forerunners building to a peak Monday at around 4 to 6 feet of deepwater swell. This one is taking a pretty direct hit on Central America and Southern Mexico and looks pretty consistent. Wave heights will build back into the chest to overhead+ range at average exposures, with standouts seeing head high to well overhead surf during the peak. Periods during the peak will be around 16 seconds so it should have some power in it too. Wave heights will start to ease a little bit Tuesday, but another overlapping swell is hot on its heals arriving late Tuesday/early Wednesday with forerunners around 17 to 18 seconds.
A little weaker than the first This swell should still build to a 4 to 6 foot peak with 15 second periods Thursday. So wave heights will build back into the chest to overhead range along the exposed coast, with standouts seeing set waves going overhead to several feet overhead probably. During the peak days of these swells its possible that a few deepwater breaks could see bigger set waves going double overhead or even a little bigger at the top magnets in the region. Overall a pretty good week of surf. Size from the later swell will start to ease Friday through next weekend slowly.
Long-Range Surf forecast Central America and Mainland Mexico
South Pacific Swell ForecastUnfortunately things quiet down a bit as we look out toward the long-range forecast.
The Jet Stream looks like its going to lift a little bit more and turn zonal. This isn’t going to help any of the weak storms get the upper level support they need to generate solid swell for the region.
That leaves us with what could be a couple weeks of smaller surf… there will be a few small background pulses keeping playful surf around through the end of the month, but its not looking all that impressive at the moment. Updates next week will hopefully reveal a better synoptic pattern. Stay tuned.
Forecast will be updated Tuesday, May 17, 2015.
Austin Gendron, austin@solspot.com, Surf Forecaster, http://www.solspot.com/
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