CRNW Surf Forecast and Reports of 2016-0531 (Tue)

We had some fun out at The Rock this morning, mostly Northside Rock, with the swell bumped up in size. Unfortunately, the wind turned light on-shore early causing the tops to roll over and the line to prematurely section. Everyone had some good rides and David has his best ride of the trip, on his Lotus. 8 ft on the sets drops at Northside Rock were pretty consistent in size. Much larger on the outer reef.

Plan is to hit it earlier tomorrow to catch more favorable winds. That is the plan!

  Model Cycle: 2016 MAY 31 06Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 6 hours              
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
5/31   6am   4 -  8   SW 217    4.8    14.4    3 -  5  NNW 343 TUE
5/31  12pm   4 -  9   SW 216    4.8    16.6    5 -  7  WNW 292
5/31   6pm   4 -  9   SW 214    4.8    16.3    5 -  7  WSW 230
 
6/1    6am   4 -  8   SW 214    4.8    15.4    1 -  1  SSW 194 WED
6/1   12pm   4 -  8   SW 212    4.8    15.3    4 -  6   SW 218
6/1    6pm   4 -  8   SW 214    4.8    14.8    4 -  5  SSW 208
 
6/2    6am   3 -  7   SW 212    4.4    14.4    2 -  3  ESE 101 THU
6/2   12pm   3 -  7   SW 211    4.2    14.2    2 -  2  SSW 208
6/2    6pm   3 -  6   SW 214    4.2    13.8    6 -  9    S 184
 
6/3    6am   3 -  6   SW 211    4.1    13.5    2 -  3    E  89 FRI
6/3   12pm   3 -  7   SW 210    4.5    13.3   11 - 16  SSW 193
6/3    6pm   2 -  5   SW 227    6.7     7.2   12 - 17  WSW 240
 
6/4    6am   3 -  6  SSW 209    4.2    12.5    8 - 11    S 171 SAT
6/4   12pm   2 -  5  SSW 209    3.9    12.3   10 - 14  SSE 167
6/4    6pm   2 -  5   SW 210    4.1    12.0   13 - 18  SSE 167
 
6/5    6am   4 -  8   SW 214    4.7    14.6   10 - 14    S 182 SUN
6/5   12pm   2 -  5   SW 224    6.4     7.0   13 - 17    S 189
6/5    6pm   3 -  6   SW 225    7.0     7.4   14 - 19  SSW 197
 
6/6    6am   2 -  5   SW 229    6.3     7.5   11 - 16    S 182 MON
6/6   12pm   2 -  5  WSW 231    6.2     7.3   14 - 19  SSW 193
6/6    6pm   2 -  5  WSW 234    5.9     7.2   12 - 16  SSW 205
 
6/7   12am   2 -  4  WSW 236    5.7     7.2   11 - 16   SW 212 TUE

Effective Monday evening

SHORT TERM FORECAST (through WEDNESDAY, June 1st)
Highlights: Good size SW/SSW swell build in through Tuesday before gradually easing on Wednesday.  

A reinforcing pulse of SW swell (220-205) will build in through Tuesday and peak late Tuesday and into Wednesday AM, easing gradually through Wednesday PM. During that time we expect to see overhead surf at many exposed breaks, while good spots will be from a couple to a few feet overhead on sets. Standout deepwater spots may see a few larger waves pushing double overhead.

Wind/Weather: Wind will be generally light in the early mornings through the middle of the week. Onshore flow develops by mid mornings and continues for the afternoons. A few spots may see a clean up in the evenings. Most of the region will see partly to mostly cloudy skies each day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely and keep in mind that passing or nearby showers and thunderstorms can temporarily affect/change local wind conditions.   

EXTENDED FORECAST (THURSDAY, June 2nd, and beyond)  
Highlights: Decreasing SW swell for Thur/Fri and into the weekend. The week of the 6th looks pretty slow at this time, with mid month holding better potential.  

South Pacific Swell: The SW swell discussed in the short term forecast above will be trending down by Thur/Fri (but still mid, becoming fun size), with smaller leftovers by the weekend of the 4th-5th.

Going further out, the week of the 6th looks pretty slow at this time, with potential for a couple of small/rideable pulses during the 6th-7th (3-4' faces).

The middle part of June holds better potential, as longer range guidance indicates we'll see renewed storm activity near New Zealand during the first week of June. Note that there are still some differences among our more trusted global weather models on the strength, location and track of these potential storms, so we're lower confidence on any swell specifics this far out. Stay tuned, we'll have more details over our next few updates.