Thursday, May 19, 2016

CRNW Forecast of 2016-0519a, Thu

Our arrival period has ticked up relative to prior days' forecast. Now we see a mix of 14+ sec periods combined with morning high tides.


  Model Cycle: 2016 MAY 19 06Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 6 hours              
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
5/19   6am   4 -  8   SW 219    4.4    16.2    9 - 12   NE  34
5/19  12pm   4 -  8   SW 218    4.5    16.0    5 -  7  SSW 202
5/19   6pm   4 -  8   SW 219    4.5    15.4    5 -  7    S 187
 
5/20   6am   3 -  7   SW 218    4.1    14.9    6 -  8  NNE  16
5/20  12pm   3 -  6   SW 218    4.0    14.5    5 -  7  WSW 245
5/20   6pm   3 -  6   SW 218    4.0    14.3    6 -  8   SW 216
 
5/21   6am   3 -  6   SW 218    3.8    13.6    8 - 11  ENE  52
5/21  12pm   2 -  5   SW 217    3.7    13.5    4 -  5   SW 222
5/21   6pm   2 -  5   SW 217    3.6    13.4    6 -  8   SW 220
 
5/22   6am   2 -  5   SW 216    3.6    12.8   10 - 14   NE  48
5/22  12pm   3 -  7   SW 220    3.5    16.6    3 -  4    S 189
5/22   6pm   3 -  6   SW 220    3.4    16.7    4 -  6    S 172
 
5/23   6am   3 -  6   SW 220    3.2    15.5    6 -  9  ENE  52
5/23  12pm   3 -  6   SW 220    3.4    15.6    3 -  5  WSW 249
5/23   6pm   3 -  6   SW 221    3.6    16.2    4 -  6  SSE 167
 
5/24   6am   3 -  6   SW 221    3.5    14.6    6 -  8  ENE  57
5/24  12pm   3 -  6   SW 221    3.5    14.8    3 -  5  WNW 286
5/24   6pm   3 -  6   SW 220    3.5    15.3    3 -  4    S 174
 
5/25   6am   2 -  5   SW 219    3.4    14.0    5 -  7   NE  31
5/25  12pm   2 -  5   SW 218    3.4    14.0    3 -  5  SSW 206
5/25   6pm   3 -  6   SW 211    3.5    15.3    3 -  4   SW 212
 
 
Forecast Effective Wednesday afternoon
   
SHORT TERM FORECAST (through Friay, May 19th)
Highlights: Fun to locally mid size SSW swell prevails for the second half of the week. 

New SW swell (220-210) will fill in further and top out Thursday, as older SW swell fades. Look for shoulder-head high waves at exposed breaks, while standout SW exposures through northern CR see sets running 1-2' overhead. Look for gradual fade on Friday.

Wind/Weather: For Central and South CR look for wind ranging from light/variable to light offshore in the early mornings, before trending onshore mid mornings. A light+/moderate onshore sea breeze prevails in the afternoons.  

For North CR look for morning offshore flow to range from light/moderate to locally breezy in northernmost CR over the next couple days. The central and southern part of the Guanacaste Peninsula will see a sea breeze develop for the mid to late morning and afternoon, while breaks in far north CR (near the Nica border) see light/variable to light offshore winds later in the afternoon. 

Most of the region will see partly cloudy skies each day. Scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible and keep in mind that passing or nearby showers and thunderstorms can temporarily affect/change local wind conditions. 

EXTENDED FORECAST (Saturday, May 21st, and beyond) 
Highlights: SW swell fades over the weekend and early next week looks small. Fun size SSW swell looks possible during the last couple/few days of May, although nothing major at this time. 

South Pacific Swell: SW swell will trend down through the weekend. Saturday will still be fairly fun at exposed breaks, with most spots becoming small Sunday. At this point, Mon/Tue look likely to see only small pulses of southerly swell (waist high, maybe chest-shoulder high at the very best spots).

Going further out, we should see a little bump in SW swell for the 25th-27th (fun size, waist-shoulder high), with something a little better possible for the last couple/few days of the month. Stay tuned. 

 
 

 
 
Of particular promise is the gold/orange swell line (e.g., 5' @16 sec.).

 

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