Tuesday, May 26, 2015

CRNW Forecast of Tue, 2015-0526

We are almost into that magical 7-day window when the forecasts become increasingly good and we are about to hit the road & the skies. Most of the swells below are outside the Galapagos shadows :)


  Model Cycle: 2015 MAY 26 06Z         
  Time Zone: GMT - 6 hours             
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
5/26   6am   3 -  7    S 187    4.7    13.7   10 - 14  ENE  55
5/26  12pm   5 - 11   SW 215    4.9    20.3    3 -  5  ESE 127
5/26   6pm   5 - 11   SW 216    4.9    20.1    5 -  7   SW 229

5/27   6am   6 - 13   SW 215    5.9    18.9   14 - 19   NE  43
5/27  12pm   5 - 11  SSW 207    5.9    15.9    5 -  7  ENE  52
5/27   6pm   5 - 10  SSW 205    5.8    15.6    9 - 13  SSW 190

5/28   6am   5 - 10  SSW 206    6.0    14.6   13 - 18   NE  48
5/28  12pm   5 - 11   SW 215    5.6    16.6    0 -  0  NNE  20
5/28   6pm   5 - 10   SW 216    5.3    16.4    8 - 11    S 187

5/29   6am   4 -  9   SW 216    5.1    15.5   10 - 14   NE  45
5/29  12pm   4 -  9   SW 217    5.0    15.3    1 -  2  SSE 151
5/29   6pm   4 -  8   SW 218    4.8    15.1    3 -  5    S 183

5/30   6am   3 -  7   SW 218    4.6    14.3    6 -  8   NE  38
5/30  12pm   3 -  7   SW 217    4.6    14.2    2 -  3  SSW 203
5/30   6pm   3 -  7   SW 218    4.5    13.9    3 -  4    S 176

5/31   6am   3 -  6   SW 217    4.2    13.8    5 -  7    N   4
5/31  12pm   3 -  6   SW 215    4.2    13.5    3 -  5   SW 224
5/31   6pm   3 -  6   SW 218    4.0    13.0    3 -  4  SSW 200

6/1    6am   3 -  6   SW 212    3.9    14.6    3 -  4   NE  43
6/1   12pm   3 -  6   SW 219    3.9    14.4    5 -  7  WSW 256
6/1    6pm   3 -  6   SW 224    3.9    14.4    5 -  7  SSW 197



Effective Monday evening
SHORT TERM FORECAST (through Wednesday, May 27th)
Highlights: The current SSW swell will ease over the next few days, but new overlapping SW and South swells are due to move in by mid week to keep up fun size surf throughout the region.
South Pacific Swell: The current SSW swell (210-180°) will slowly ease over the next few day, while gradually shifting more southerly in angle. Tuesday will continue to see chest-head high occasional overhead sets at the better exposures, then backing down a notch for Wednesday. New, overlapping SW and South swells will be filling in on Wednesday as the old SSW energy fades - More details on those next swells in the EXTENDED FORECAST section below.

EXTENDED FORECAST (Thursday, May 28th and beyond)
Highlights: More fun-size South and SW swells line up for the second half of the week and the first week in June.
South Pacific Swell: Previous storm activity off the southern tip of South America and over the Southwest Pacific will deliver an overlapping pair of swells (South 195-175° and SW 235-210°) for the second half of the week, gradually filling in over the next couple days. This swell-mix tops out Thursday the 28th and holds fairly steady through Saturday the 30th, offering surf mainly around the waist-head high zone at good exposures. Standouts will produce occasional overhead sets, which will be most prominent during the more favorable tides. NOTE - With this combo, the Galapagos shadow will be pretty much obsolete, allowing for nearly all the better exposures to partake in fun-size surf during that time.

Beyond that - A new/large storm system has recently developed over the Southwest Pacific. Although this storm is currently aimed a little better to the north of Central America, we'll still see a decent size dose of SW swell (235-205°) fill in over June 2nd-3rd and top out over the 4th-5th with more chest-head high to overhead sets at well exposed breaks. Models indicate that this storm will continue to pump out swell for Central America over the next few days or so, and possibly becoming better aimed at the region. Therefore, we may see an increase in SW swell as we move through the 6th-7th. Stay posted for updates, as this is still underway.

NOTE - This SW swell will be strongest overall for the northern half of Costa, with partial shadowing by the Galapagos on the southern half down through Panama.


 
 
 

The forecast above is a festive, "Ho! Ho! Ho!"

 
 
 










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