CRNW Forecast of 2016-0220am Sat

A fun day to compare forecast models and two data reports for today listed below.

  Model Cycle: 2016 FEB 20 06Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 6 hours              
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
2/20   6am   3 -  6  NNE  29    7.1     7.8   18 - 25  ENE  53
2/20  12pm   2 -  5   NE  35    6.0     8.3   11 - 15  ENE  67
2/20   6pm   4 -  9   SW 211    4.9    15.6   10 - 14  ENE  71
 
2/21   6am   4 -  8   SW 212    4.9    14.9   14 - 19  ENE  51
2/21  12pm   4 -  8   SW 212    4.6    14.8    6 -  8  ENE  50
2/21   6pm   3 -  6   SW 213    3.9    14.7    7 - 10  ENE  62
 
2/22   6am   3 -  7   SW 212    4.4    13.9   13 - 18  ENE  55 MON
2/22  12pm   3 -  6   SW 216    3.8    13.9    5 -  6   SW 219
2/22   6pm   3 -  7  SSW 190    3.5    17.6    8 - 11   SW 227
 
2/23   6am   3 -  7  SSW 191    3.8    16.3    8 - 11   NE  45 TUE
2/23  12pm   3 -  7  SSW 190    3.8    15.5    8 - 10    W 275
2/23   6pm   3 -  6  SSW 192    3.8    15.2    4 -  5    W 266
 
2/24   6am   3 -  6  SSW 192    3.6    14.2    6 -  8   NE  32 WED
2/24  12pm   2 -  5  SSW 192    3.5    13.6    9 - 12  WNW 302
2/24   6pm   2 -  5  SSW 193    3.5    13.3    5 -  8  WNW 294
 
2/25   6am   3 -  7  SSW 203    3.6    16.6   10 - 14  NNE  22
2/25  12pm   4 -  8  SSW 197    4.2    16.5   10 - 14    N 353
2/25   6pm   4 -  9  SSW 199    4.9    15.7   15 - 20  ENE  67
 
2/26   6am   5 - 10  SSW 201    5.6    15.3   18 - 24   NE  47
2/26  12pm   5 - 10  SSW 200    5.8    14.7   16 - 22   NE  47
2/26   6pm   4 -  9  SSW 202    5.5    14.5   14 - 19  ENE  68
 
2/27  12am   5 - 10  SSW 203    6.0    14.8   18 - 24  ENE  52

Today's Surf Height: 2-3ft
3ft at 12s SSW (193°) | 1ft at 14s WNW (300°) | 1ft at 9s WNW (302°)
Live Wind: 25 kts E (90°)

SATURDAY: SSW swell continues, but eases, with waist-chest high surf at exposed 

breaks. Standouts see sets to shoulder high. 

SUNDAY: Surf continues to slowly trend down as primary SSW swell sets up waist 

high waves at exposed breaks, with sets to chest high at standouts. Small NW swell 

builds with occasional waist high sets.

EXTENDED FORECAST (Tuesday, February 23rd, and beyond)  
Highlights:  Fun size SSW swell Tue/Wed, with a larger SSW to S swell for Fri/Sat. 
Enhanced NW swells look likely for the very end of the month and the beginning of March.  

South Pacific Swell: The South Pacific storm track is slowly becoming more active and we 

have a couple of fun SSW to S pulses on track for the upcoming week, both from storms 

off the south end of South America. 

The first will build through the day on Tuesday, continue Wednesday and then ease 

Thursday.  For Tuesday PM and Wednesday look for waist-shoulder high+ surf at 
exposed breaks, while good spots see sets to head high. 

A larger SSW swell looks likely for Fri/Sat (slow build Thur, easing trend Sun) from a 

storm now off the south end of South America. So far this storm appears to behaving 

similar to model guidance and we expect to see fun chest-head high surf for Fri/Sat 

the 26th-27th at exposed breaks. Standout spots may even push a bit overhead. Stay 

tuned, we will refine this forecast over the next few days. 

Beyond that it looks like smaller, but still possibly fun size, SW swell will move into Central

America in early March. Stay tuned. 

SolSpot says...

Smaller surf through the start of next week. Better S energy arrives Tuesday and builds through the end of the week

Central America and Mainland Mexico Short-Range Surf Forecast

Smaller leftovers in the water today, but there should be a little bit of S (180-190), SSW-SW (205-215) and NW (295-310) combo arriving over the weekend building to a small peak early next week.  A more moderate sized run of S (180-195) is due to pick up on Tuesday, with a better overlapping pulse arriving next Thursday.  Nothing to get overly stoked about, but should mean some fun surf in the water later next week.

The middle to second half of next week we’re looking at a slightly more consistent and slightly bigger run of overlapping S (180-195) swells.  The first is looking a little weaker, arriving early Tuesday and building to a 2-3 foot peak with 14-second periods on Wednesday.  Not huge, but enough to bump the surf up into the waist to head high range along the exposed south facing coast.  Better standouts/deepwater spots could see some head high to overhead sets rolling through occasionally during the peak, maybe even a little bigger for southern Costa Rica and West Panama.  That swell is going to slowly back off Thursday, but will be followed up by a second stronger swell arriving with 17 to 19-second periods mid to late Thursday.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Beyond that, the long-range forecast models quiet down again.  No notable swell makers within a confident range of time.  There are a couple smaller background pulses from the SSW-SW likely due for the first week of March, but at this time of the year, a lot can change past 72 hours out.  I’ll hopefully have a more detailed forecast for you on Tuesday.