- nice walk today, made brunch for my wife and I, watched the recorded Republican debate (what a riot)
- miscellaneous tax, budget and trip-related chores
- talked for an hour with David on the phone about his progress, board designs, materials...
Now for the forecasts!
Model Cycle: 2016 FEB 26 12Z
Time Zone: GMT - 6 hours
-------------------------------------------------------------
SURF SURF DIR SEAS PERIOD WIND WND/DIR
(ft) (deg) (ft) (sec) (kts) (deg)
------- -------- ----- ------ ------- -------
2/26 6am 5 - 10 SSW 202 5.7 15.3 17 - 23 NE 47 FRI
2/26 12pm 5 - 10 SSW 199 5.8 14.7 14 - 19 NE 35
2/26 6pm 5 - 11 SSW 202 6.4 14.5 21 - 28 ENE 53
2/27 6am 5 - 11 SSW 200 6.8 14.6 17 - 23 NE 40 SAT
2/27 12pm 5 - 10 SSW 198 6.4 14.4 17 - 23 NE 46
2/27 6pm 5 - 10 SSW 200 6.3 13.8 19 - 26 ENE 53
Big Hawaiian Swell
2/28 6am 6 - 13 WNW 292 6.3 18.1 15 - 20 NE 46 SUN 2/28 12pm 6 - 13 WNW 293 6.5 17.6 13 - 17 ENE 64 2/28 6pm 5 - 10 WNW 290 5.3 16.8 12 - 17 ENE 66 2/29 6am 5 - 10 WNW 286 5.5 16.1 16 - 22 ENE 53 MON 2/29 12pm 4 - 8 WNW 286 4.6 15.3 1 - 1 SSW 193 2/29 6pm 3 - 7 WNW 285 3.9 15.2 9 - 12 SSW 208 3/1 6am 3 - 6 W 276 3.9 14.2 12 - 16 ENE 51 TUE 3/1 12pm 4 - 9 WNW 290 3.9 20.0 7 - 10 SSW 198 3/1 6pm 4 - 8 WNW 283 3.5 19.0 5 - 7 SW 217
Back Into The Green Zone (non-shadowed)
3/2 6am 3 - 6 SW 228 3.4 17.1 9 - 12 NE 38 WED 3/2 12pm 3 - 7 WSW 233 3.6 16.7 9 - 12 WNW 307 3/2 6pm 3 - 7 SW 218 3.9 15.8 4 - 6 NW 313 3/3 6am 4 - 8 WSW 234 4.8 15.3 16 - 21 NE 45 THU 3/3 12pm 4 - 8 SW 223 5.0 14.8 12 - 17 NNE 27 3/3 6pm 3 - 7 SW 227 4.3 14.6 8 - 11 ESE 101 3/4 12am 3 - 7 SW 228 4.2 14.5 14 - 19 ENE 53 FRI 3/4 6am 4 - 8 SW 228 4.9 14.7 14 - 20 NE 41
I will be back later for the Friday evening Narrative Update -- Later Became Saturday, 2/27/16:
Effective Friday afternoon (2/26/16)
SHORT TERM FORECAST (through Monday, February 29th) Highlights: Fun to mid size SSW swell Sat trends down Sun/Mon. Fun to locally solid NW swell for
the weekend, easing Monday.
South Pacific Swell: The SSW swell (210-185) that filled in through the day today (Fri) will continue on Saturday. Look for exposed breaks to see chest-head high surf, while standouts see sets to a foot+ overhead and even a little better. Sunday will see decreasing SSW swell, but still fun with waist-shoulder high surf at exposures and sets to head high at standouts. Monday will see smaller leftovers from the SSW.
North Pacific Swell: Fun to locally solid NW swell will build in for the weekend (very long period forerunners building on Fri). This is thanks to a very intense storm that was north of Hawaii a few days ago. This storm was located further south than the average low, so the resulting swell will be more 'west' and open it up to more breaks in Central America.
Look for long period WNW swell (290-310) to build through the day on Saturday with a peak later Saturday and into Sunday. As the swell peaks look for many breaks with decent exposure to see head high waves, while good spots are a couple feet overhead. Select standout spots that can really focus the swell see sets running several feet overhead and occasionally larger. Monday will see a slow fading trend.
Note also that with the SSW swell running, a few of the beachbreaks open to both directions will see some bowled up peaks.
EXTENDED FORECAST (Tuesday, March 1st, and beyond)
Highlights: Another NW swell for well exposed breaks Tue-Thur. Modest/fun SW swell for the 3rd-5th, with a better run of Southern Hemisphere swell looking more and more likely starting around the 7th and continuing for several days. More North Pacific swell on tap, too.
South Pacific Swell: As we have mentioned in the past couple forecast discussions, the South Pacific storm track is starting to stir, and we have a series of swells on the radar. For the medium term our next swell of interest (SW, 220-210) is for the 3rd-6th, from a couple of storms that recently pushed past New Zealand. This should be fun, around waist-shoulder high with a few plus sets to head high at standouts.
Beyond that, a better run of SW to SSW swell is looking more and more likely for the second week of March (7th-12th or so). This will be from several storms that are forecast to slide past New Zealand in the next few days. At this point head high surf looks very possible for exposed breaks during that time, with best spots pushing into the overhead range. Stay tuned, we'll have more refines details on specific size and arrival time in our next few updates.
North Pacific Swell: The next swell of interest from the NPAC will build in and be strongest through the middle part of the week, thanks to a very impressive storm that was recently NW of Hawaii (this storm set up the 'Eddie' swell). While it will obviously be much, much bigger for Hawaii, well exposed Central America breaks will see some waves as well.
Very long period forerunners start to build on Monday, although the swell will become more noticeable through Tuesday, with a peak in size anywhere from late Tuesday through Wednesday before easing on Thursday. This should be a notch or two down from the weekend swell, thanks primarily to the more 'northerly' direction (300-320). As the swell peaks look for well exposed breaks to see shoulder-head high surf, while select standout spots are up to a foot or two overhead on sets. Stay tuned, we'll refine this forecast in Monday's update.
The North Pacific will remain quite active as we head through at least the first half of March as well, and more swells are on the horizon. While nothing looks as big as what we expect this weekend (at least at this point), fun size surf is very possible, with the next swell of interest ling up for the 7th-8th. Stay tuned, we'll have more details in the next few days.
One spot on the CRNW shows a little juice in the water!
Another spot forecast just seems a little loony.
South Pacific Swell Forecast
Models have been downgrading systems in the South Pacific a little bit, but still continue to look more active with a strengthening storm track around the Dateline.
There is currently a storm working its way ESE of new Zealand that looks like it will set up a nice little SSW-SW (210-220) for around the 6th/7th of March. This would be a longer-period pulse, with deepwater heights likely around 2-3 feet during the peak. Enough to generate waist to head high surf at standouts.
The models continue to look active through the medium-long-range forecast, with a couple stronger systems (again likely to be downgraded) showing up south of the Pitcairn Islands and SE of New Zealand early to mid-next week. As of right now we’re looking at better SSW (190-210) and SW (210-220) swells arriving around the 7th/8th, and 11th/12th respectively. It’s too early to get into details, but I will keep an eye on these two for you until next week. Stay tuned.
Forecast will be updated Tuesday, March 1, 2015.
Austin Gendron, austin@solspot.com, Surf Forecaster, http://www.solspot.com/
No comments:
Post a Comment