the rodNDtube blog site: CRNW Forecast of 2016-0223am Tue

We are just under a week away from arriving into the swell forecasting higher confidence level window. :) Hardly any of the swell directions shown below are directly in the shadow zone (even the head shaded ones are not that bad). We shall learn more when on-site.

  Model Cycle: 2016 FEB 23 06Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 6 hours              
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
2/23   6am   3 -  7  SSW 191    4.1    16.3   12 - 16  ENE  55
2/23  12pm   3 -  7  SSW 190    4.1    15.5   12 - 16    S 181
2/23   6pm   3 -  7  SSW 192    3.9    15.2    6 -  9   SW 212
 
2/24   6am   2 -  5  SSW 192    3.5    14.2    4 -  6   NE  32
2/24  12pm   2 -  5  SSW 193    3.4    13.6    8 - 11  WNW 296
2/24   6pm   2 -  5  SSW 194    3.6    13.3   10 - 13  WSW 251
 
2/25   6am   3 -  7  SSW 203    3.8    16.6   13 - 18   NE  36
2/25  12pm   4 -  9  SSW 197    4.8    16.5   15 - 20  NNE  21
2/25   6pm   4 -  8  SSW 199    4.7    15.7   10 - 14  ESE 102
 
2/26   6am   5 - 10  SSW 202    5.9    15.3   18 - 24   NE  42
2/26  12pm   5 - 10  SSW 200    5.9    14.7   15 - 21   NE  35
2/26   6pm   5 - 11  SSW 202    6.5    14.5   20 - 28  ENE  53
 
2/27   6am   5 - 10  SSW 200    5.9    14.6   16 - 22   NE  47
2/27  12pm   4 -  9  SSW 198    5.6    14.3   13 - 18   NE  37
2/27   6pm   4 -  9  SSW 200    6.0    13.8   20 - 27   NE  48
 
2/28   6am   6 - 13  WNW 292    6.0    18.1   14 - 18  ENE  54
2/28  12pm   6 - 12  WNW 293    5.7    17.6    7 - 10  ENE  59
2/28   6pm   4 -  9  WNW 291    4.8    16.8    5 -  7  ESE 111
 
2/29   6am   4 -  9  WNW 286    5.1    16.0   15 - 20  ENE  52
2/29  12pm   3 -  7  WNW 286    4.3    15.3    1 -  1    N 353
2/29   6pm   3 -  7  WNW 285    3.9    15.2    4 -  6  SSE 168
 
3/1   12am   3 -  6    W 276    4.0    14.4   15 - 20  ENE  60

Forecast Outlook:

TUESDAY: SSW swell builds in with waist-chest zone waves early and shoulder high sets by mid-day. Head high sets in the afternoon/evening. NW swell traces.

WEDNESDAY: SSW swell is in the waist-head high range with slightly overhead sets at standouts. NW swell traces.

EXTENDED FORECAST (Saturday, February 27th, and beyond)

Highlights: Nice size Southern hemi swell continue to roll in. Enhanced NW swells for the very end of the month and the beginning of March.

South Pacific Swell: SSW swell peaks and holds this weekend with chest-head high surf at well exposed breaks along with overhead sets. Standouts are running a couple feet overhead on the best waves.

Southern hemi swell is trending down to close out the month/kick of March but there's a string of storms now moving out from under New Zealand and those are lining up a sustained run of SW swell for the 3rd-9th. Details on this later in the week, once more real-time data becomes available.

North Pacific Swell: A decent size NW-WNW swell (280-300+) is scheduled to build in late on Saturday and peak Sun/Mon the 28th-29th, thanks to a strong low north of Hawaii today. It's got a pretty westerly direction on it, so many spots that don't typically get NPAC swells will see fun size surf in the waist-shoulder-head high range off this as it peaks. Standouts go head high and even a little larger on sets.

Beyond that, there's a more typical, steeper angled NW swell (290-300+) lining up for the 1st-4th of March (initially showing late on the 29th) which would be much more selective and really only get into the best NW facing locations in northern C.R. More details on this event later in the week.

Longer range charts/models show more NW swell potential with an active NPAC storm track through the first week+ of March as well. Stay tuned.

The third charts below look promising for our initial week in the water (caveat: long-range forecast).