CRNW Forecast of 2016-0224pm Wed

Let's see... I just checked the surf forecasts for Sunday, Feb 28, 2016. Oh, wow. Surf looks like it might be too big for me (see Table 1). Oh, bummer! The surf is only waist to chest (see Table 2). At least it is at high tide and not the 2-3 ft at low tide! What a quandry... what board to bring? What is confounding is how different the forecasts are coming from the same forecasting service. Even the details are crazy different... look at the swell size and periodicity. At least they are not too far off on swell direction!

Table 1.

  Model Cycle: 2016 FEB 24 12Z          
  Time Zone: GMT - 6 hours              
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
2/24   6am   2 -  5  SSW 192    3.5    14.2    3 -  4   NE  45
2/24  12pm   2 -  5  SSW 193    3.4    13.6    7 - 10  WNW 296
2/24   6pm   2 -  5  SSW 194    3.4    13.3    8 - 11    W 269
 
2/25   6am   4 -  8  SSW 203    4.1    16.6   15 - 20   NE  39
2/25  12pm   5 - 10  SSW 197    5.2    16.5   16 - 22  NNE  26
2/25   6pm   4 -  8  SSW 199    4.8    15.7   10 - 14    E  94
 
2/26   6am   5 - 10  SSW 202    5.8    15.3   16 - 22   NE  36
2/26  12pm   5 - 10  SSW 200    6.0    14.7   15 - 20   NE  36
2/26   6pm   5 - 11  SSW 202    6.6    14.5   20 - 28  ENE  53
 
2/27   6am   5 - 10  SSW 200    5.8    14.6   16 - 21   NE  43
2/27  12pm   4 -  9  SSW 198    5.6    14.3   13 - 18   NE  38
2/27   6pm   4 -  9  SSW 200    5.6    13.8   17 - 24  ENE  56
 
2/28   6am   7 - 14  WNW 292    6.5    18.1   16 - 22   NE  47
2/28  12pm   6 - 13  WNW 293    6.5    17.6   13 - 17   NE  49
2/28   6pm   5 - 11  WNW 291    5.6    16.8   13 - 18  ENE  66
 
2/29   6am   5 - 10  WNW 286    5.2    16.1   14 - 19  ENE  57
2/29  12pm   4 -  8  WNW 286    4.5    15.3    4 -  6    N   0
2/29   6pm   3 -  7  WNW 285    3.9    15.2    4 -  5    E  95
 
3/1    6am   3 -  7    W 276    4.7    14.2   15 - 20  ENE  54
3/1   12pm   4 -  9  WNW 293    4.1    20.0    4 -  5    S 187
3/1    6pm   4 -  8  WNW 290    3.5    19.0    8 - 12   SW 219
 
3/2   12am   3 -  7  WNW 289    3.2    18.4    8 - 11   NE  45
3/2    6am   3 -  6  WSW 240    3.4    17.1    9 - 12   NE  38

Table 2. 

Table 3. 

Is a certain pattern repeating itself this year and from last year? Each week is 

larger than the preceding week. The surf is always building as the forecast moves 

from Day 1 to Day 17!!! More or less.

Table Section 4. SolSpot Forecast of March 23,, 2016 ( bolded/italicized a section below)

Long-Range Surf forecast Central America and Mainland Mexico

North Pacific Swell Forecast

The long-range models are showing another potentially strong storm dropping in latitude north of Hawaii over the weekend.

This one like its predecessor doesn’t drop quiet as low as that first one that will be arriving later this week, but it could be pretty strong, and that means we could be seeing another moderate to plus sized WNW-NW (295-310) arriving around the 4th of March.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

As we start to look further out towards the month of March, the medium and long-range forecast models are starting to look a little energized.  There are a couple smaller background pulses from the SSW-SW (200-220) that would show up mid next week.  Likely wont be much, but enough to add a little combo to the peaking WNW-NW swell in the water.

As those systems start to fizzle out, a stronger storm emerging out from under New Zealand starts to show some promise.  I’m a little skeptical about the strength due to the time of year, but according to the past couple model runs things seem to be lining up correctly for a decent pulse of SSW-SW (210-220) for around the 6th/7th of March.  this would be a longer-period pulse, with deepwater heights likely around 2-4 feet during the peak.  Not a lot, but worth keeping an eye on for some head high surf in the near future.   Things don’t stop there…

With the seasons starting to shift, the southern storm track looks like its going to start warming up again.  We normally start to see the first solid S-SW swells of the year in March, so this could be a sign of what’s to come.  Although the models are a bit far out, This shows another potentially punchy long-period pulse of SSW-SW (200-220) arriving around the 8th of March, with another one to follow around the 12th.  I’ll have more details for you on Friday.

Whoopie!!! This guy, Austin Gendron, speaks truth to power!!!