Tuesday, June 10, 2014

CRNW Forecast and Reports, Mon/Tue, 2014-0609-10

I've been a bit lethargic from a cold the past few days. Yesterday I caught few waves, Tim had an all time day and Terry was out a long while. Today is a bit larger and fairly disorganized, strong SW influenced.

Bonzer Update: Nothing new to add!

  Model Cycle: 2014 JUN 10 12Z         
  Time Zone: GMT - 6 hours             
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
6/10   6am   4 -  9   SW 215    4.6    16.3    3 -  5    E  87
6/10  12pm   4 -  8   SW 217    4.7    15.8    1 -  1  SSW 190
6/10   6pm   4 -  8   SW 215    4.8    15.5    4 -  5  SSW 208

6/11   6am   4 -  8  SSW 201    4.8    15.4    3 -  5  NNE  24
6/11  12pm   4 -  8  SSW 198    4.7    14.9    2 -  3    W 274
6/11   6pm   3 -  7  SSW 197    4.6    14.4    6 -  8  WSW 236

6/12   6am   3 -  7  SSW 193    4.4    13.4    4 -  5    E  90
6/12  12pm   3 -  6  SSW 195    4.2    13.1    3 -  5   SW 226
6/12   6pm   4 -  8   SW 215    4.2    16.6    4 -  6   SW 227

6/13   6am   3 -  7   SW 211    3.9    15.4    3 -  4    N   9
6/13  12pm   3 -  7   SW 214    3.8    15.4    3 -  4  WSW 245
6/13   6pm   3 -  6   SW 214    3.7    15.2    3 -  5   SW 210

6/14   6am   2 -  5   SW 216    3.4    14.4    4 -  6   NE  33
6/14  12pm   3 -  6   SW 215    3.5    14.4    2 -  2   SW 213
6/14   6pm   3 -  7  SSW 192    3.7    16.8    6 -  9   SW 212


Monday evening. Forecast Outlook:
TUESDAY: SSW shifting South swell holds as new SW swell peaks in the afternoon. Surf is chest-head high with plus sets at the better exposed breaks throughout the region. Select standouts hit 7' on sets on best tides in the afternoon.
WEDNESDAY:SW swell holds as shorter-period South swell mixes in. Well exposed spots are head high plus, top breaks see 7' sets on the best tides.
SHORT TERM FORECAST (Through Friday, June 13th)  
Highlights: Fun size, overlapping Southern Hemi swells for the work week.

South Pacific Swell: Storm activity throughout the entire SPAC last week whipped up a fun size run of overlapping Southern Hemi swells for this week. The blend of shorter period SSW-South swell (200-175 deg) and longer period SW swell (220-205 deg) peaks Tuesday/Wednesday with waist-head high surf at many exposures throughout the region, and occasional overhead sets for some of the standouts. Select SW magnets will see occasional sets up to a couple feet overhead Tuesday PM through Wednesday, as the longer period SW energy tops out. Those waves will be easing on Thursday, then fade mainly into the waist-shoulder high range by Friday.

Wind/Weather: Most areas will see a typical diurnal wind pattern through the next several days; calm to light/variable to locally light+ offshore wind for the early mornings, before a moderate onshore WSW-SW'erly seabreeze gradually develops over the mid to late morning hours and into each afternoon. NOTE - Good chance for the wind to back off into the evenings for a glassoff for some locations before dark, especially the more sheltered/tucked away spots.

EXTENDED FORECAST (Saturday June 14th, and beyond)  
Highlights: Fresh round of S-SSW swell peaks early next week.

South Pacific Swell: Storm activity that slid through the central SPAC and is currently spinning off the south end of South America is the source of the next Southern Hemi. The low is looking good for a moderate size SSW shifting South swell  (210-185 deg) that starts to move in on Sunday then peaks early next week, 16th-17th, with head high plus waves and better sets at well exposed spots.  We feel the LOLA model is a bit hot right now on this swell (overcalling it), and should cool off (correct itself) over the next several days as the storm/swell continue to evolve. Stay posted for updates on this still very active storm/swell system. 

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