Wednesday, May 21, 2014

CR NW Forecast of Wed, 2015-0521p

Only 10 days to launch. Literally. Those might be launches from Outside Northside Rock on arrival afternoon of Sat, May 31, 2014.






The meat of the swell on May 29 & 30, has declined a couple of feet from recent forecasts but there is still plenty of swell in the forecast. Looks like plenty of "getting to know you Miss S&S Diamond."

Wednesday evening update


SHORT TERM FORECAST (Through Sunday, May 25th)  
Highlights:  New run of SSW and SW swells move in for for the second half of the week.  

South Pacific Swell:   The current, fading shot of SW (225-210) groundswell continues to wind down going into the second half of the week,  as a reinforcing bump of new SSW swell joins in. The swell combo maintains waist-head high plus waves and better sets at well exposed spots on Thursday.

New round of SW (225-210) groundswell starts to fill in on Friday then peaks on Saturday, keeping lots of well exposed spots in consistent head+ high surf and better sets. Slow fade on Sunday as the swell eases, but there will still be plenty of fun waves left through the end of the weekend.

Wind/Weather: Costa Rica will see primarily a diurnal wind pattern through most of the week. Look for light/variable to locally light offshore wind for the early mornings, before a moderate S/SW seabreeze develops over the morning hours and into each afternoon. The Nicoya Peninsula will see offshore flow in the mornings; light to moderate in some areas, strongest toward the Nica border, followed by a light+moderate seabreeze in the afternoons. 

EXTENDED FORECAST (Monday, May 26th and beyond)   Highlights: More SW groundswell moves in for next week.

South Pacific Swell
Continued storm action tracking away from New Zealand is cranking out more southern hemi swell for the upcoming week. Fresh, long-period SW (220-210) groundswell starts to move in late next Monday, fills in through Tuesday, then tops out on Wednesday, 28th, with easily overhead surf at exposures and double overhead+ stuff at the better breaks. Those sizes slowly wind down during the the second half of next week.
A more moderate scale combo of SW and SSW swell is expected to roll in by the following weekend, 31st-1st. Stay tuned for updates.


From Solspot.com from yesterday
In about three days, another storm will form up in the wake of the departing SSW’er (slated to peak on May 27-29). This new storm is closer to South America and is still tracking relatively ENE, which is good, but not great for kicking out swell for this region.

Fortunately this system will slow down as it nears Chile and even seems to cycle up to the NE right in the Southerly part of the swell window. This will help the storm kick out another round of S-SSW swell (180-210) that will arrive with some long-period forerunners on May 29…but will likely peak more on May 30 for Central America and May 31 for Mainland Mexico. Since this swell will be arriving while the tail end of the bigger SSW’er is just starting to wind down, it will be able to generate some more decent size waves. I expect the overhead+ surf to continue through the end of the month, while the standout breaks see some even bigger well-overhead sets.

Further out the remnants of the storm producing the swell for the end of the month will still be lingering off the coast of Chile and Peru…but the meaty portion of the system will be moving over land, which will start to derail some of its swell production. The spot to watch is another cold, high-latitude low-pressure that is just starting to move off Antarctica.

This storm will make a similar jog to the NE, much like the storms before it, but this system isn’t positioned quite as well as those previous ones. Chances are that it will end up producing another round of swell for the better S-SSW facing spots (180-200)…but it will come through several notches smaller. I am still expecting some shoulder-head high+ waves for many of the better S facing beaches…and even overhead+ sets for the standouts…but this one looks like it will be smaller and less consistent.




No comments: