CRNW Forecast of Tue, 2014-0527pm

Here's the forecast from http://solspot.com/ by Adam Wright

(Tuesday) 5.27.14

 

The South Pacific keeps rocking

Central America and Mainland Mexico Short-Range Surf Forecast

Solid S-SSW swell (190-210) is currently hitting right now…and in fact will peak through the day on Wednesday before slowly starting to back off on Thursday and Friday. As the current swell leaves we don’t need to worry about wave heights dropping too much…a following shot of S-SSW energy (180-200) will move in later in the week and help hold wave heights right on through the weekend.

http://solspot.com/buoy/mainland-mexico/forecast

This current swell…the one peaking (May 27-29) and will end up pushing all of our breaks right back into the 5’ deepwater swell range with swell periods hanging around 16-18 seconds…this will push wave heights at the average spots into the overhead to well-overhead range roll in while the S-SSW standouts hang right in the well-overhead to double-overhead range with some even bigger sets at the best deepwater spots.

The following round of S-SSW swell (180-200) that will arrive with some long-period forerunners on May 29…but will likely peak more on May 30 for Central America and May 31 for Mainland Mexico. Since this swell will be arriving while the tail end of the bigger SSW’er is just starting to wind down, it will be able to generate another pulse of decent sized waves. I expect the overhead+ surf to continue through the end of the month, while the standout breaks see some even bigger well-overhead sets.

Costa Rica | Nicaragua | El Salvador | Southern Mexico

Long-Range Surf forecast Central America and Mainland Mexico

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Looking at the current storm setup for the SPAC you can see the last bit of the storm that set up the S-SSW pulse for the end of the month…but really the one to keep an eye on is the other red blob that is just starting to strengthen close to Antarctica around 130W longitude.

This storm looks pretty zonal at first, but current forecast models are showing it making a pretty nice jog to the NE over the next couple of days.

As it makes this change in direction it is also supposed to intensify, and while most of that energy is heading toward South America, the backside of the storm is going to set up some good sized/strength fetch for Central America and Southern Mainland Mexico at the same time.


This storm looks like it finally peters out around May 30…(so later this week) but it still has some winds and movement that are pushing it up toward our region. Eventually this will break off and move over land, but in the process it is going to generate a healthy S-swell for most of the region. We can expect this new swell to arrive on June 3 with some very-long-period energy (21-22) seconds.

This swell will fill in through June 3 and eventually peak June 4-6…with 6-8’ of deepwater energy and peak swell periods in the 16-18 second range. We can expect wave heights to go well-overhead to nearly double overhead for all of the better exposed spots while the standout breaks hit an easy double-overhead with sets going triple-overhead+ and even bigger at the really good deepwater breaks.



We will see a little gap in our storm production after this bigger S swell rolls through…but this storm kicks out enough waves that we should see plenty of waves hanging around for a couple of days after the peak that we will eventually have a new SSW-SW swell arrive in time to pick up the slack. This new swell is forecast to develop as a fast moving system pushes away from New Zealand in the mid-latitudes and drags a couple of other cold fronts behind it.



This storm doesn’t hold together quite as long as the previous systems but it will still be good enough to keep some shoulder high waves showing at the exposed breaks starting June 7-8. The standouts will have some overhead waves with the potential for some bigger sets, depending on how strong this storm becomes and how well it tracks toward us over the next several days.