Thursday, March 5, 2015

CRNW Forecast of Thu, 2015-0305a

This morning's forecast data plus the human-in-the-loop forecast Wednesday evening update. 

I had a nice chat with Terry last night.. he sends his best and misses our times on the bluff sipping coffee and gulping Negras. He will be thinking of us when the swell rolls in next week.

A "Blast From the Past" features our Discovery Day of SR's Cove, the north end. This is where and how we surfed it the very first time, on a high tide. Neal, Kirk and I paddled out and Pat watched from the shore and our gear. I rode lefts and rights on that peak.



The view from Swell Info


  Model Cycle: 2015 MAR 05 06Z        
  Time Zone: GMT - 7 hours            
-------------------------------------------------------------
             SURF    SURF DIR   SEAS  PERIOD   WIND    WND/DIR
             (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
            -------  --------  -----  ------  -------  -------
3/5    5am   4 -  8   SW 219    5.0    14.4   11 - 15  ENE  71
3/5   11am   3 -  7   SW 217    4.3    14.3    4 -  5  NNW 348
3/5    5pm   3 -  6   SW 220    4.0    13.8    4 -  5  ENE  65

3/6    5am   4 -  8   SW 218    5.3    13.4   18 - 24  ENE  55
3/6   11am   3 -  7   SW 215    4.9    13.2   10 - 14  ENE  61
3/6    5pm   2 -  4   SE 132    4.9     7.7    8 - 11  ENE  72
 

Really, 5-10 ft in the late afternoon?
3/7    5am   3 -  6  ESE 120    5.9     9.1   17 - 23  ENE  55 SAT
3/7   11am   5 - 10  SSW 202    5.7    15.5   14 - 19  ENE  55
3/7    5pm   5 - 10  SSW 199    5.8    15.2   19 - 26  ENE  59
 

ESE swells showing up as primaries here and following 3 days?
3/8    6am   3 -  7  ESE 121    6.7     9.6   18 - 25  ENE  59 SUN
3/8   12pm   4 -  9  SSW 197    5.3    14.3   11 - 16  ENE  56
3/8    6pm   3 -  7  SSW 197    4.7    13.8   11 - 14  ENE  66
 

That 8.9 period will make for some interesting sideways surf.
3/9    6am   4 -  8  SSW 196    5.3    13.3   15 - 20  ENE  59 MON
3/9   12pm   2 -  5  ESE 117    4.8     8.9    5 -  6    E  82
3/9    6pm   2 -  5  SSW 195    3.9    12.8    3 -  4    E  89
 

Washout day at The Wash?
3/10   6am   2 -  4  ESE 120    4.4     8.3   11 - 16  ENE  61 TUE
3/10  12pm   3 -  6  SSW 199    4.1    12.7    3 -  4    N 359
3/10   6pm   3 -  6  SSW 207    3.7    15.4    3 -  4   SE 137
 

Period increasing by sundown.
3/11   6am   3 -  7  SSW 208    4.4    14.6   11 - 15  ENE  50 WED
3/11  12pm   3 -  7  SSW 207    4.5    14.7    3 -  4    N   6
3/11   6pm   4 -  8  SSW 203    4.3    16.2    4 -  5  ESE 113



Effective Wednesday afternoon.

Near Term Forecast Outlook:
THURS/FRI: SSW swell is gradually fading from shoulder high to 1-2' overhead on Thursday to waist-head high+ on Friday. Southern hemi swells hold up fun to moderate surf for at least the next week+.

WEATHER/WIND: Moderate offshore wind for most of the region in the mornings (strongest offshore flow for the northern half of the Nicoya Peninsula towards the Nicaragua border, lighter for the southern end). Southern end of the region sees a light onshore sea-breeze in the afternoons as northernmost regions remain mainly offshore.


EXTENDED FORECAST (Sunday, March 8th, and beyond):
Highlights: More fun size Southern hemi swell through mid-month and likely beyond.

South Pacific Swell: Fresh, moderate scale SSW swell (220-200) keeps up waist-shoulder zone waves Sunday/Monday. Standouts may see some head high sets roll in at times. This swell is dropping through mid-week.

Right now, there's a decent looking low over the central/eastern SPAC and that is poised to send up another decent sized S-SSW swell (210-190) around the 11th-13th with more chest high to overhead waves at good spots while standouts are running a couple feet+ overhead on sets. It looks like a very slow fading trend for several days thereafter but still plenty of fun size surf through mid-month. We'll have more details on this in the next couple updates. Beyond that, we could see continued storm activity off South America deliver more S-SSW swell to start out the back half of the month. Stay tuned.

Moderate surf forecast in the Near-Term. Work on your trick maneuvers and maybe a walk to Turtleheads?

A delayed arrival is better than no arrival!

Mid period swell continues :) Pray for this storm to develop!






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